All the way through. This is the very beginning. It’s no longer able to be quarantined, so we expect it to spread throughout the globe. My prediction would be something like:
-Further seeding of clusters through to mid april
-Serious spread through to mid June/July
-Warmer weather and school holidays in northern hemisphere will make it stutter a bit
- September the schools reopen and it gets going again, next winter will see the biggest peaks of infection.
- IF we are lucky a vaccine gets developed by the autumn or winter of 2020, BUT the amount of resource needed to make billions of doses will be significant. Dont expect a vaccine soon
-There’s also the possibility of mutation leading to emergence of a different strain which could kick off a second or third wave.
- long term SARs becomes another human endemic respiratory virus and we get echoes of this initial pandemic for the next decade or two followed by, like the flu, further strains novel enough to cause issues. By that time we have a solid vaccine platform and we go back to flu levels of excess deaths
A reminder that flu alone kills 30,00-45,000 people per year in the USA alone.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html