2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

The republicans still seem enthusiastic. This is there ultimate stand, their chance to prove Trump is not a fluke. There is a lot to be said about the implications of the establishment and protestors if Donald destroys them one again.

They also were shown that the Dems will knife them in the back in the past 4 years.

 

[break these cuffs]

Ignorant people think Mandela was sentenced to life in prison because of those DANG DIRTY RACISTS in apartheid-era South Africa. He was put in prison because he was a fucking terrorist.

Imagine having your mind so filled with white guilt that you think Trump shit-talking a convicted terrorist is some sort of GOTCHA moment.

It's not even white guilt. All I learned about South Africa when I was in school was that Mandela was basically their MLK. It was an extremely brief footnote. I had no idea what apartheid actually was or what Mandela actually did until I did my own research as an adult. I'm sure it's worse now, but 20-30 years ago that's all that was taught and it was still black washing.

 

[The Demon]

The republicans still seem enthusiastic. This is their ultimate stand, their chance to prove Trump is not a fluke. There is a lot to be said about the implications of the establishment and protestors if Donald destroys them one again.

Usually the candidate who's running for his second term tends to win

 

[babadook]

I hope so broskis

 

[Surprised Pikachu]

Sorry to go back in time a bit (every time I click on this thread it’s grown another 5 pages, did Ethan Ralph stop by?) but I keep reading about AOC at the DNC and how it appeared she rebelliously endorsed Sanders to give them all the finger.

Personally, I believe her explanation. I think she was told to endorse Bernie and she wasn’t expecting the backlash she received - BUT THE DNC WAS. It’s clear that no matter the outcome of the election the Democrats are going to have to face their internal division and do something about the progressive base. Making AOC look a fool was a brilliant move, she was utterly humiliated on global tv and her tantrum afterwards was widely mocked. I just can’t see AOC endorsing Bernie out of nowhere (plus it was pre-recorded) but can totally see her falling for a set-up by those wanting to put her in her place.

I find this is one of the more entertaining parts of this election, watching the dynamic between the corporate democrats and the Bernie base. Hopefully they will destroy one another in entirety but until then it makes for fun times.

Our next poll should be do we think Biden will make it to the debates? He’s going downhill so fast it’s annoying as I wanted to look forward to it but he’s so pathetic it would be like kicking a puppy. I don’t think they’ll happen. If they do it’s because they want to lose. They know he’d struggle being President of the golf club. Fun times indeed.

Going to lurk moar now, thanks.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

My conspiratorial guess is that the First Presidential and VP debates go on. The first debate has 15 minute segments on 6 topics, thus Biden should get through it well enough spewing lines he remembered with a strong Haloperidol dosage. The second debate is Town Hall where Trump and Ken Bone can throw in lots of jabs like he did vs. Hillary, and then there will be pressure to cancel it because Corona-Chan will kill everyone. And then we might as well cancel the third because the first was enough.

 

[Xx_Retard Faggot 1488_xX]

They also were shown that the Dems will knife them in the back in the past 4 years.

Sadly, I feel like this trait is what we have to rely on. As much as I don't want a civil war II: electric boogaloo, I think if Trump loses we have a worse fate. I frankly do not believe that republicans will step in numbers at the time of need, too many right wing people nowadays are just non-progressive leftists or neo-cons. If biden wins, their will be no war, just the continuation of the slow roast. slowly taking away gun rights, no more electoral college, no more free speech cuz "no hate speech bigot!", and universal healthcare for a country that has no real work cuz its all in china. If trump wins, the backstabbing, wannable revolutionaries will step up and bring shit to a head, which despite being a shit option, is the better of the 2, cuz at least we can have a chance to save ourselves. Our former generations dug us into this hole, now we are in between a rock and a hard place.

 

[Bunny Tracks]

Sadly, I feel like this trait is what we have to rely on. As much as I don't want a civil war II: electric boogaloo, I think if Trump loses we have a worse fate. I frankly do not believe that republicans will step in numbers at the time of need, too many right wing people nowadays are just non-progressive leftists or neo-cons. If biden wins, their will be no war, just the continuation of the slow roast. slowly taking away gun rights, no more electoral college, no more free speech cuz "no hate speech bigot!", and universal healthcare for a country that has no real work cuz its all in china. If trump wins, the backstabbing, wannable revolutionaries will step up and bring shit to a head, which despite being a shit option, is the better of the 2, cuz at least we can have a chance to save ourselves. Our former generations dug us into this hole, now we are in between a rock and a hard place.

We really need a doomer rating.

In all seriousness, you sound just like the Dems who pissed and moaned the same thing when Trump was elected. America's going to be fine. We're not going to have a civil war, our rights aren't going to be taken away (you think Americans would just immediately fold like that? Get the fuck out), and we're not going to fall to China.

Turn off the news, get off the internet, and calm down. I know this year has been fucking terrible, but we've faced way worse shit before, and come out of it just fine. America's going to be fine.

The moment you give in to the fearmongering is the moment you give those people who actually want all that shit to happen win. Don't fall for it. Don't let them think they can win by trying to scare you into thinking that what they're saying is inevitable, because that's exactly what they want you to do, and you're playing right into the hands by doing so.

America's taken on two world wars, a civil war, much greater racial division, a revolution, an invasion, and a pandemic way worse than this one, and it's still standing. You think an Orange Man, a man with paradoxical dementia, a little cough, and some spoiled brats larping is going to bring it down? C'mon, man.

 

[Aidan]

It's not even white guilt. All I learned about South Africa when I was in school was that Mandela was basically their MLK. It was an extremely brief footnote. I had no idea what apartheid actually was or what Mandela actually did until I did my own research as an adult. I'm sure it's worse now, but 20-30 years ago that's all that was taught and it was still black washing.

I had to read his autobiography in school and even that doesn't sugarcoat that he was a terrorist. He says himself that he was doing it for the right reasons so it was ok. He basically just bitched about everything forever and got his way after enough bitching. This is good and bad.

 

[Iceland Heavy]

That was my favorite part of the riots so far. They peaked early for me. There is a clip from the CNN broadcast that night. The feed shows a shot from tinside the lobby. There are 10-20 officers in view and I'm sure more outside of view. A rioter throws a firework into the lobby and the anchor who's speaking freaks out. You can hear the fear in their voice as they ask what happened and if everyone is okay, clearly panicked. You can tell the thought "Oh my god, the useful idiots might turn their violence on us" ran through their head for a split second. I don't know where the studios are in the Atlanta building, but it's huge. There were multiple floors, security doors, private security, and a couple dozen cops in between the anchor and the violence they support. Yet they shit their pants at the first sign the violence might come for them. It was the most delicious schadenfreude for me since Hillary supporters on election night.

Of course the next day there were a couple platoons of Guard deployed to CNN headquarters. The MSM agitprop whores are far more important than some pleb's takeout restaurant or convenience store.

I'm absolutely certain the CNN hacks were pissing their pants at the thought of their golem smashing their offices but to be fair there seemed to be a lot more at the CNN Center than just CNN. A bunch of stores and an Atlanta police precinct were also in that complex. The latter seemed to be the mob's primary target though they obviously didn't care about collateral damage.

 

[ulsterscotsman]

Usually the candidate who's running for his second term tends to win

Could Trump in any possible way flip Oregon or Washington State?

 

[break these cuffs]

I'm absolutely certain the CNN hacks were pissing their pants at the thought of their golem smashing their offices but to be fair there seemed to be a lot more at the CNN Center than just CNN. A bunch of stores and an Atlanta police precinct were also in that complex. The latter seemed to be the mob's primary target though they obviously didn't care about collateral damage.

Oh that's funny. Someone made an offhand comment about the police precinct being there and I thought they were just making an observation on the number of cops in the lobby. The fact that it's an actual police precinct is even more hilarious.

Sorry to go back in time a bit (every time I click on this thread it’s grown another 5 pages, did Ethan Ralph stop by?) but I keep reading about AOC at the DNC and how it appeared she rebelliously endorsed Sanders to give them all the finger.

Personally, I believe her explanation. I think she was told to endorse Bernie and she wasn’t expecting the backlash she received - BUT THE DNC WAS. It’s clear that no matter the outcome of the election the Democrats are going to have to face their internal division and do something about the progressive base. Making AOC look a fool was a brilliant move, she was utterly humiliated on global tv and her tantrum afterwards was widely mocked. I just can’t see AOC endorsing Bernie out of nowhere (plus it was pre-recorded) but can totally see her falling for a set-up by those wanting to put her in her place.

I find this is one of the more entertaining parts of this election, watching the dynamic between the corporate democrats and the Bernie base. Hopefully they will destroy one another in entirety but until then it makes for fun times.

Our next poll should be do we think Biden will make it to the debates? He’s going downhill so fast it’s annoying as I wanted to look forward to it but he’s so pathetic it would be like kicking a puppy. I don’t think they’ll happen. If they do it’s because they want to lose. They know he’d struggle being President of the golf club. Fun times indeed.

Going to lurk moar now, thanks.

I hadn't paid attention to the backlash or the explanation she gave, but what you say makes perfect sense in light of that. They were giving a little reality check to Ms. Red Revolution. It's bandied about frequently that her district is going to be gerrymandered out of existence, but I wouldn't be so sure. The NY legislature changed the redistricting process to start in 2020. Instead of being handled purely in the legislature, it's now a 10 person commission with 2 being appointed by minority and majority leaders each in both chambers. The final two are appointed by those 8 commissioners. The DNC can't just do whatever it wants. I'm sure the commissioners will be scheming, but it would be interesting to know just how cucked the Republicans are and whether or not they'll play ball. AOC leaving isn't necessarily as done a deal everything thinks it is.

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

Could Trump in any possible way flip Oregon or Washington State?

Eh. Oregon's population is mostly centered in two counties which heavily trend democrat, so unless there's a totally unseen backlash to what's been going on, I seriously doubt it.

I looked into some data on the party registration numbers in Oregon and it does seem that republican registration is accelerating more than democrat registration in the period from June to August. In June there were 1,005,692 registered dems, 716,974 registered republicans, and 932,961 non-affiliated. In August there were 1,018,276 dems, 731,716 republicans, and 934,646 non-affiliated.

That's +12,584 dem, +14,742 republican, and +1685 non-affiliated.

I would hazard that's probably par for the course, though I don't really have the willpower to do a fuller investigation into registration trends.

And of course just because voter registration goes up or down, that doesn't tell us a whole lot about how non-affiliated and registered independents will vote. But if there were going to be a ridiculous swing away from democrats in November, you'd probably see some sign of that in changing voter registrations. You could probably play around more with various pieces of data for Oregon (here) if you want to take into account turnout trends, voter registration outside this specific period in 2020, etc.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

I don't think Oregon is as hopeless as most think it is. It's a D+5 state and has been slowly trending red, and who knows how the Portland insanity may change things. Polling is notoriously sparse in Oregon as they can't reach the rural areas and places stuck in the 80s, so we won't know beforehand. If a big shift happens to where Trump wins the popular vote by 5+, I'd put Oregon and Delaware as the two Safe D states that would flip first.

 

[Xx_Retard Faggot 1488_xX]

We really need a doomer rating.

In all seriousness, you sound just like the Dems who pissed and moaned the same thing when Trump was elected. America's going to be fine. We're not going to have a civil war, our rights aren't going to be taken away (you think Americans would just immediately fold like that? Get the fuck out), and we're not going to fall to China.

Turn off the news, get off the internet, and calm down. I know this year has been fucking terrible, but we've faced way worse shit before, and come out of it just fine. America's going to be fine.

The moment you give in to the fearmongering is the moment you give those people who actually want all that shit to happen win. Don't fall for it. Don't let them think they can win by trying to scare you into thinking that what they're saying is inevitable, because that's exactly what they want you to do, and you're playing right into the hands by doing so.

America's taken on two world wars, a civil war, much greater racial division, a revolution, an invasion, and a pandemic way worse than this one, and it's still standing. You think an Orange Man, a man with paradoxical dementia, a little cough, and some spoiled brats larping is going to bring it down? C'mon, man.

Not trying to be a doomer, and I still have hope, but its not just this year that's my problem:

For the last 8 years racial tensions have reached new levels we haven't seen since the civil rights movement, with current riots that have been going on for literal months. We have been losing our gun rights slowly but consistently for over 30+ years. People are getting fired for voting the wrong way or if you do or say anything inside or out of the job that isn't "politically correct". The current "right-wing" isn't even right wing anymore, just non-progressive liberals. So yes, our rights are and have been taken away and are going to continue to. America is already folding and as long as the economy is good, the majority of right-leaning people will be happy turning their ar-15s or 30 round mags with that year's new ban list and okay with trannies teaching their kids.

This isn't fearmongering, im not telling people to go cry in their cellars cuz its over, but to think that we are as free as we where 10 years ago is laughable, I'm just asking for people to be aware of whats going on, we are already too complacent.

 

[Big Nasty]

Anyone who has any idea on why Biden is gaining on Trump in betting odds suddenly?

 

[heyitsmike]

Anyone who has any idea on why Biden is gaining on Trump in betting odds suddenly?

Lol. He's not. It's the opposite. Trump is back to even in the betting odds.

 

[BlackDragoons]

Lol. He's not. It's the opposite. Trump is back to even in the betting odds.

Doesn't change the fact that this election is pretty much two senile old man trying to become President of the states.

Remember that old AvP tagline "Whoever wins, we lose" This can be applied to the 2020 election as a whole.

Also I think he's lost Utah's vote.

 

[Big Nasty]

Lol. He's not. It's the opposite. Trump is back to even in the betting odds.

RCP average last time i checked today had Biden at 53.8% and Trump at 45.5%.

 

[Someone Awful]

What are the chances of non-whites voting Trump in higher percentages than in 2016?

We already saw the margin between Clinton and Trump voters among nonwhites decline compared to 2012 when they were at an all-time high for Obama. The margin of white voters who voted for Trump also increased from whites who voted for Clinton though it is worth noting the percentage of white voters who voted for either candidate decreased due to the rise of independent supporters. Minorities, on the other hand, voted for Trump more, albeit by several percentages.

I don't see a noticeable rise in white support happening for Trump. He might get a percentage or two more of the white vote but it won't be enough to win the election and that's assuming a rise even happens. That won't be enough to counter the decline in white percentage of voters. If Trump surprises me in this regard, I expect he will take Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan and eek out a victory even if he loses Florida and Arizona. But the weaken economy doesn't give me confidence in that happening and you know Rust Belt voters will factor that in even if they believe the Chinese Virus is overblown.

It's worth noting that Asians were once a reliable voting block for Republicans. 55% voted for Bush Sr. in the 1992 election. Over time they gradually shifted to the Democrats, reaching a peak with 73% voting for Obama and 26% for Romney in 2012. Yet in 2016, 65% voted for Clinton and 29% vote for Trump and that was with an increased amount of support compared to 2012. Granted, they did vote 77% in the 2018 midterm but I will reserve judgment on their voting patterns until we see the 2020 demographic breakdown.

As for Hispanics, it's possible that more will vote for Trump in comparison to 2012 and 2016 but we likely won't see over 40% of them as Trump's campaign want to brag about. Around 35%, maybe, which would guarantee Texas and keep Florida and Arizona in play for Trump, but not enough to flip states like Colorado and New Mexico. I don't see a scenario where Hispanics turn red or purple anytime soon even if they go back to voting 30-40% Republican on average.

Blacks are undoubtedly the most solid voting block for Democrats and there is no doubt the Dems want to galvanize the turnout for 2020. But Trump has also done quite a lot for blacks like reforming the prison system and record low unemployment rate for blacks prior to the Chinese virus fucking everything up. I know that there have been polls saying that Trump has been getting 20%+ support among blacks but that seems too good to believe. Still, I'm not willing to toss out the possibility that a significant portion of blacks may turn Republicans after seeing actual results from Trump. Remember that the blacks voted Hoover in 1932 but switched to FDR in 1936 after all he did for them. Not to say they'll turn red anytime soon or even see a double digit increase, but if the blacks vote like 15%+ for Trump and the Republicans can keep those gains, it will keep the party competitive in the South and in Michigan for the future. Call me optimistic, but I think it might happen even with Nigger Lives Don't Matter.

I believe the minority vote will decide who will win this election. States like Florida, Arizona, and maybe even Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, and Nevada are in play depending on how they vote. It's also important since, again, these voting blocks are more urbanized than the whites. If nonwhites start trending red, that means the Democratic's stronghold on cities are weakening and of course vice versa.

Eh. Oregon's population is mostly centered in two counties which heavily trend democrat, so unless there's a totally unseen backlash to what's been going on, I seriously doubt it.

I looked into some data on the party registration numbers in Oregon and it does seem that republican registration is accelerating more than democrat registration in the period from June to August. In June there were 1,005,692 registered dems, 716,974 registered republicans, and 932,961 non-affiliated. In August there were 1,018,276 dems, 731,716 republicans, and 934,646 non-affiliated.

That's +12,584 dem, +14,742 republican, and +1685 non-affiliated.

I would hazard that's probably par for the course, though I don't really have the willpower to do a fuller investigation into registration trends.

And of course just because voter registration goes up or down, that doesn't tell us a whole lot about how non-affiliated and registered independents will vote. But if there were going to be a ridiculous swing away from democrats in November, you'd probably see some sign of that in changing voter registrations. You could probably play around more with various pieces of data for Oregon (here) if you want to take into account turnout trends, voter registration outside this specific period in 2020, etc.

The Portland riot and Wheeler's amazingly incompetent response to it does give hope that the more moderate residents of those densely populated areas may vote Trump even if they normally do straight ticket Democrats and that it will galvanize Republican voters. Will it be enough to flip the state red this year? Likely not, but by the end of this decade, it might turn into a light red state like Iowa and Ohio are now.