2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Surprised Pikachu]

As a foreigner viewing this election closely (but helplessly) I have to state that you’d be crazy not to vote for Trump. The recent insanity from the opposition is off the charts and if you don’t vote him back in then can we have him please? I seriously believe he could heal the world (and is).

But my question is in regard to the night of Nov 3rd and the coming days / weeks / months ahead. We’re not in the good old days anymore, when we had any sort of attention span. Now everything is instant, reaction, counter reaction and done, onto the next big thing within 24hrs. If they don’t call it for The Donald on election night how long do you think the public will last? I just can’t see people accepting that Biden is suddenly President-elect in mid December especially if the GOP has a big lead election night. People want their lives back to normal, 2020 has been exhausting and this bullshit needs to stop Nov 4th. Or do I have it wrong? Can the election last post election and for how long? For me, Biden ‘winning’ any later than the 5th wouldn’t pass the sniff test, from optics alone it seems crazy he’s considered leading at all, the boat parades for Trump were lit!

Good luck U.S.A, you’re going to need it.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

Without powerleveling, holy crap, Trump is emailing like CRAZY since Labor day. Out of the latest 100 emails in my inbox, 20 of them are from Trump. Seems like it started late September 10th and just has gone crazy since then. And that's without even considering a good number of those emails were shunted into spam by Google's election interference team.

 

[BONE_Buddy]

Without powerleveling, holy crap, Trump is emailing like CRAZY since Labor day. Out of the latest 100 emails in my inbox, 20 of them are from Trump. Seems like it started late September 10th and just has gone crazy since then. And that's without even considering a good number of those emails were shunted into spam by Google's election interference team.

And remember, It will only get worse until election day. That said, lol, jokes on you for being on mailing lists.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

And remember, It will only get worse until election day. That said, lol, jokes on you for being on mailing lists.

That's the thing. I'm not. I'm a registered Democrat, technically.

 

[It's HK-47]

Trump campaign reaches 100M voters as team Biden avoids door knocks

The RNC says it has knocked on the doors of 12 million potential voters in battleground states since mid-June — that’s around 1 million a week — while the Biden campaign has knock…

nypost.com

Trump campaign reaches 100M voters as team Biden avoids door knocks

{The following is a summary by me.}

12 Million of which was door to door since mid-june. A million doors a week in battleground states.

2,000 hired staff have trained over 2 million volunteers, mainly focused on 22 battleground states.

This effort is three times larger than 2016.

Biden's team has not gone door to door, citing corona-virus concerns. {I believe it is due to the lack of enthusiastic volunteers}.

_

What are my thoughts?

While Trump's campaign has not been as aggressive with TV ads as Biden's, TV ads are quite expensive for the effect that you get, which is a slight boost to enthusiasm, and a boost in name recognition, but next to no voter conversions. Trump already has a very enthusiastic voting block, and his name recognition is 100 percent. Door to door has a very low percentage chance to get a convert, but nevertheless it still has the highest voter conversion rate of all traditional mass campaigning tools. The problem is that it takes time, money, and enthusiastic volunteers to be effective.

The only high percentage voter conversion system is friends and family, everything else pales in comparison. Barring that, door-to-door is your best option.

Anyway, that is my two cents.

There's a hidden advantage to that door-to-door canvassing: What's the average size of a poll these days, a few hundred? If you're lucky you might see a poll that's somewhere in the few thousands, but how accurate would a poll be if it was conducted door-to-door and reached into the 100-million ranges?

Traditional polling doesn't have shit on what his campaign is doing, because on top of it being a disguised poll, it's also a personalized campaign ad that's able to pitch what the Democrats have been fucking up and what Trump's actually accomplished without anyone--barring an insane relative--heaping a spin on it before it can reach the voter.

 

[heyitsmike]

While Trump's campaign has not been as aggressive with TV ads as Biden's, TV ads are quite expensive for the effect that you get, which is a slight boost to enthusiasm, and a boost in name recognition, but next to no voter conversions. Trump already has a very enthusiastic voting block, and his name recognition is 100 percent. Door to door has a very low percentage chance to get a convert, but nevertheless it still has the highest voter conversion rate of all traditional mass campaigning tools. The problem is that it takes time, money, and enthusiastic volunteers to be effective.

The only high percentage voter conversion system is friends and family, everything else pales in comparison. Barring that, door-to-door is your best option.

There's a hidden advantage to that door-to-door canvassing: What's the average size of a poll these days, a few hundred? If you're lucky you might see a poll that's somewhere in the few thousands, but how accurate would a poll be if it was conducted door-to-door and reached into the 100-million ranges?

Traditional polling doesn't have shit on what his campaign is doing, because on top of it being a disguised poll, it's also a personalized campaign ad that's able to pitch what the Democrats have been fucking up and what Trump's actually accomplished without anyone--barring an insane relative--heaping a spin on it before it can reach the voter.

This is why the DNC was so desperate to keep the progressives and Bernie Bros on board. They would do things like that and for free.

Also, variations on a theme: this is from today, not yesterday.

 

[Malodorous Merkin]

Joe's wranglers didn't even get him a plane.

Joe Biden campaign will have no campaign plane, report says ...

www.businessinsider.com › Transportation › Travel

Aug 18, 2020 - Biden is reportedly not leasing his own campaign plane, ending a decades-long tradition of presidential candidate jets. Thomas Pallini. Aug 18 ...

They seriously thought they could just say "COVID, dude" and keep Joe stashed in the basement the whole time.

But then Joe was forced to go to Wisconsin to try and steal a little of Trump's thunder, and they had to scramble and hustle Joe onto a blank white rental plane that they didn't even have time to slather in "Build Better Backs Back Better" and "No Malarkey" stickers.



What an utter disaster of a campaign. Team Joe is bringing piss to a shit fight,

 

[Salubrious]

The only thing I will note is that in 2016 I heard that Hillary Clinton had millions of door knocks in Florida to Trump's none and Trump won Florida anyway.

I don't know how true that is, but it at least warrants a mention.

 

[UselessIdiot]

The only thing I will note is that in 2016 I heard that Hillary Clinton had millions of door knocks in Florida to Trump's none and Trump won Florida anyway.

I don't know how true that is, but it at least warrants a mention.

Hillary had a much better run campaign than Biden does, it's not even funny. Biden's only campaign strategies are having him be a generic candidate and hiding from the public as much as possible to avoid them seeing he has dementia and what a feeble state he's in, and that that will be enough to coast to victory. Oh, and TV ads that really aren't all that effective in getting votes anymore, like previously mentioned in this thread.

 

[BeboRefugee]

Hillary had a much better run campaign than Biden does, it's not even funny. Biden's only campaign strategies are having him be a generic candidate and hiding from the public as much as possible to avoid them seeing he has dementia and what a feeble state he's in, and that that will be enough to coast to victory. Oh, and TV ads that really aren't all that effective in getting votes anymore, like previously mentioned in this thread.

The only reason I see for most ITT to give Biden a shot is the media.
In 2016 there were a lot of factors and things Trump / Hillary had going for one another. Things were in flux.
This time? Trump is winning in every conceivable metric, except media coverage. 5 years of Orange Man Bad + Biden hiding from the public means Biden's win really comes from how much the media can drum up anti-Trump action, and campaign on his behalf. That's the real variable. How powerful is that variable? Maybe enough for city-dwellers that can't envisage a different future, but for rural voters who've seen visible improvements? For homeowners in the suburbs thinking their neighbourhood might be next?
It's both fascinating and horrifying if Biden wins because it would show the media can throw its weight around and win despite everything else.

 

[Salubrious]

Oh, and TV ads that really aren't all that effective in getting votes anymore, like previously mentioned in this thread.

I think the problem is that the stations that would air the TV ads are all left-leaning anyway, so they "aren't effective" because they are preaching to the choir so to speak.

If Trump ran ads on CNN, then they would be ineffective because most people that watch CNN are probably voting Democrat. But advertising on Fox News wouldn't work either because those people are already for Trump.

I guess the issue is that most people that watch the news have already made up their minds.

 

[Iwasamwillbe]

This time? Trump is winning in every conceivable metric, except media coverage. 5 years of Orange Man Bad + Biden hiding from the public means Biden's win really comes from how much the media can drum up anti-Trump action, and campaign on his behalf.

What are "diminishing returns"?

Seriously, do you think people aren't sick and tired of endless "Orange Man Bad" coverage for years on end? Do you think people aren't sick of the media in general at this point? Do you think the media still has the same level of power that it had in even 2015?

The BLM/Antifa riots are the extent of what the media can "drum up", and they backfired spectacularly. The media isn't capable of doing anything that it hasn't done before, but to an even smaller audience.

 

[Salubrious]

The only reason I see for most ITT to give Biden a shot is the media.

In 2016 there were a lot of factors and things Trump / Hillary had going for one another. Things were in flux.

This time? Trump is winning in every conceivable metric, except media coverage. 5 years of Orange Man Bad + Biden hiding from the public means Biden's win really comes from how much the media can drum up anti-Trump action, and campaign on his behalf. That's the real variable. How powerful is that variable? Maybe enough for city-dwellers that can't envisage a different future, but for rural voters who've seen visible improvements? For homeowners in the suburbs thinking their neighbourhood might be next?

It's both fascinating and horrifying if Biden wins because it would show the media can throw its weight around and win despite everything else.

I think people forget that there were actually a bunch of factors that Trump had against him in 2016 that he doesn't have in 2020.

1) The Incumbent Advantage. It's really rare for a sitting politican to be voted out barring some major catastrophy. I don't think COVID or BLM are going to count.

2) Experience. Trump had never held public office before 2016. Hillary was damn near the appointed president. 2016 was supposed to be her corination, but Trump managed to turn her experience into a negative.

3) Latino Increase. I know people still shout that Trump is racist, but in 2016 the big issue was that Trump's "Build the Wall" meant that he hated all Mexicans and Latinos. Hell, Latinos aren't even an issue in 2020. I have not heard one word about them at all, and I bet that pisses them off from a Democratic standpoint. I don't think he wins the Latino vote, but I don't think the gap is anywhere near 65-30 in Biden's favor.

4) Kamala Disadvantage. I had to look up who Hillary's running mate even was (Tim Kaine). This year, I do think Kamala will be an active negative for Biden.

5) No "Outright" First Woman President. A lot of people theorize that Biden is running so he can step aside and Kamala can be the first woman president. In 2016 there were people excited to vote for the actual woman president directly. It still didn't work.

6a) Black Lives Matter. I really think the BLM movement has turned large swarths of normies against the Democrats.

6b) Black Republicans. Maybe I'm in a bubble now because of COVID, but I feel like it's starting to be more "socially acceptable" for black people to be Republican now. Even if not, I think a lot of black America hates BLM as much as I do. I put this in Trump's favor because he only won 8% of the black vote in 2016. It would be almost impossible for this to not increase this year; even going from 8 to 10 would be huge but I can see Trump going as high as 15-20%. I dunno, just a gut feeling.

7) Biden. Biden is a terrible candidate. At least Hillary looked like a future president. Biden looks like my dying grandfather and I am not exaggerating. Combine this with the fact that Biden isn't even campaigning and Trump is ramping up into high gear.

 

[JongleJingle]

7) Biden. Biden is a terrible candidate. At least Hillary looked like a future president. Biden looks like my dying grandfather and I am not exaggerating. Combine this with the fact that Biden isn't even campaigning and Trump is ramping up into high gear.

And the thing is, it's only gonna accelerate from here. Biden sits and does nothing, Trump releases that 2016 energy once more (potentially even higher than that) and gains more and more voters; it continues until a grand crescendo on November 3rd, and from there we see the fate of the world.

I don't think Biden will win; he barely talks IRL (Twitter doesn't fucking count), he hasn't campaigned much, he gets worse with each appearance, and so forth. That does NOT sound like a strong leader, and neither does the fact that he keeps flip flopping on his politics. Is he against a mask mandate, or is he for it? Is he against the riots, or for them? Does he want to use fossil fuels more, or does he not? He keeps changing his story, and anybody that pays attention to that is sure to become doubtful of his capabilities as president.

Guess all I can really say is that with evidence before me, I've got faith Donnie's gonna nail another election.

 

[BeboRefugee]

I think people forget that there were actually a bunch of factors that Trump had against him in 2016 that he doesn't have in 2020.

1) The Incumbent Advantage. It's really rare for a sitting politican to be voted out barring some major catastrophy. I don't think COVID or BLM are going to count.

2) Experience. Trump had never held public office before 2016. Hillary was damn near the appointed president. 2016 was supposed to be her corination, but Trump managed to turn her experience into a negative.

3) Latino Increase. I know people still shout that Trump is racist, but in 2016 the big issue was that Trump's "Build the Wall" meant that he hated all Mexicans and Latinos. Hell, Latinos aren't even an issue in 2020. I have not heard one word about them at all, and I bet that pisses them off from a Democratic standpoint. I don't think he wins the Latino vote, but I don't think the gap is anywhere near 65-30 in Biden's favor.

4) Kamala Disadvantage. I had to look up who Hillary's running mate even was (Tim Kaine). This year, I do think Kamala will be an active negative for Biden.

5) No "Outright" First Woman President. A lot of people theorize that Biden is running so he can step aside and Kamala can be the first woman president. In 2016 there were people excited to vote for the actual woman president directly. It still didn't work.

6a) Black Lives Matter. I really think the BLM movement has turned large swarths of normies against the Democrats.

6b) Black Republicans. Maybe I'm in a bubble now because of COVID, but I feel like it's starting to be more "socially acceptable" for black people to be Republican now. Even if not, I think a lot of black America hates BLM as much as I do. I put this in Trump's favor because he only won 8% of the black vote in 2016. It would be almost impossible for this to not increase this year; even going from 8 to 10 would be huge but I can see Trump going as high as 15-20%. I dunno, just a gut feeling.

7) Biden. Biden is a terrible candidate. At least Hillary looked like a future president. Biden looks like my dying grandfather and I am not exaggerating. Combine this with the fact that Biden isn't even campaigning and Trump is ramping up into high gear.

This is what I'm saying, the only explanation I have for Biden winning, despite everything you listed and other policy positions that Trump wins on, is if the media carries an entire Dead Sea worth of water for him.
Its scary to consider a candidate for president winning despite campaigning in absentia, but if we're sitting here doing an autopsy on the Trump campaign for November 4th, this is really the only part of the landscape Biden has going for him

 

[RockPaper]

This is what I'm saying, the only explanation I have for Biden winning, despite everything you listed and other policy positions that Trump wins on, is if the media carries an entire Dead Sea worth of water for him.
Its scary to consider a candidate for president winning despite campaigning in absentia, but if we're sitting here doing an autopsy on the Trump campaign for November 4th, this is really the only part of the landscape Biden has going for him

Or there's a large number of ridiculous people who actually want the President to be "polite" all the time, and are so tired of the President saying what Trump says and the way that he says it, that they'll vote for a literal corpse just hoping everything will go back to seeming "normal" and don't want to ever see how the sausage is made. These are incredibly stupid and naive people, and I truly hope there aren't enough of them.

 

[tehpope]

This is what I'm saying, the only explanation I have for Biden winning, despite everything you listed and other policy positions that Trump wins on, is if the media carries an entire Dead Sea worth of water for him.

Or the left manages to rig the election via voter fraud. Which I don't see happening. I can only see it happening in the states they're already going to win (the west coast, NY, Illinois, the other Northeast Corridor states possibly). And that isn't going to help Biden at all. Texas is out since apparently they've got a ton of stringent voter id laws. Arizona might help a little, and only a little. Even if they manage to get their tendrals in other states, I still think they're too incompentent to pull off voter fraud on a nation level.

Remember:

It's a pretty funny narrative, though.

Despite having the entire media on their side and a monsterous campaign budget, the Democrats have lost the election to a fat reality TV star who most people thought was running as a joke. They failed to keep Neil Gorsuch off the Supreme Court, failed to keep Brett Kavanaugh off the Supreme Court, failed to secure a "Blue Wave", failed to keep idiots like AOC from dethroning a long-time Democrat that they'd been grooming for years to move up in the ranks, failed to nail Trump with Stormy Daniels, failed to keep Creepy Porn Lawyer out of prison, failed to keep Harvey Weinstein out of trouble, failed to keep Jeffrey Epstein from not killing himself, failed to succeed with the Mueller report and the impeachment sham.

They failed to keep the tensions high enough to keep us out of a peace agreement with North Korea, failed to keep the Paris Climate whatever alive, failed to keep NAFTA alive, failed to keep him from kicking Obamacare in the nuts by rescinding the Individual Mandate, failed to keep him from passing his tax cuts, failed to keep gun ownership from rocketing through the fucking stratosphere, failed to elect any candidate from their Peanut Gallery except the one guy whose brain is melting, and they're currently failing to keep their own cities from catching on fire while Joe Biden rambles around on stage and reads anything they put on a teleprompter--regardless of whether or not he's supposed to read that part--like he's Ron fucking Burgundy.

However, their mail-in voting fraud will be flawless and merciless and we're all doomed.

 

[Xx_Retard Faggot 1488_xX]

I think people forget that there were actually a bunch of factors that Trump had against him in 2016 that he doesn't have in 2020.

1) The Incumbent Advantage. It's really rare for a sitting politican to be voted out barring some major catastrophy. I don't think COVID or BLM are going to count.

2) Experience. Trump had never held public office before 2016. Hillary was damn near the appointed president. 2016 was supposed to be her corination, but Trump managed to turn her experience into a negative.

3) Latino Increase. I know people still shout that Trump is racist, but in 2016 the big issue was that Trump's "Build the Wall" meant that he hated all Mexicans and Latinos. Hell, Latinos aren't even an issue in 2020. I have not heard one word about them at all, and I bet that pisses them off from a Democratic standpoint. I don't think he wins the Latino vote, but I don't think the gap is anywhere near 65-30 in Biden's favor.

4) Kamala Disadvantage. I had to look up who Hillary's running mate even was (Tim Kaine). This year, I do think Kamala will be an active negative for Biden.

5) No "Outright" First Woman President. A lot of people theorize that Biden is running so he can step aside and Kamala can be the first woman president. In 2016 there were people excited to vote for the actual woman president directly. It still didn't work.

6a) Black Lives Matter. I really think the BLM movement has turned large swarths of normies against the Democrats.

6b) Black Republicans. Maybe I'm in a bubble now because of COVID, but I feel like it's starting to be more "socially acceptable" for black people to be Republican now. Even if not, I think a lot of black America hates BLM as much as I do. I put this in Trump's favor because he only won 8% of the black vote in 2016. It would be almost impossible for this to not increase this year; even going from 8 to 10 would be huge but I can see Trump going as high as 15-20%. I dunno, just a gut feeling.

7) Biden. Biden is a terrible candidate. At least Hillary looked like a future president. Biden looks like my dying grandfather and I am not exaggerating. Combine this with the fact that Biden isn't even campaigning and Trump is ramping up into high gear.

your mostly on the money but I have 2 things i'd argue:

3) Your right on w/ legal latinos, but remember that illegal voting from illegals is a constant, as even if it isn't a talking point, their biggest priority is their lives and do not want to be sent back to mexico unless they are grabbing more cocaine. They heavily outnumber any legal vote trump really gets from latinos, so keep it in mind.

6b) Turning point and the neocon republicans always try to push this. Should blacks be repub? Probably. Will they EVER? No, the black vote will never sway enough to make a difference for the same reason many people quit their jobs at the start of covid: "It pays more to not work with our nice social programs".

 

[Was]

Jeb can still win, guys. Trust me.

 

[It's HK-47]

Jeb can still win, guys. Trust me.

Fuck Jeb. Saint Jiub cleansed Vvardenfell of the Cliff Racers, what did Jeb ever do for Morrowind? That Imperial faggot is probably still shuffling around Cyrodil offering to pay adventurers 5 Septims to clap for him.