I'm calling bullshit too. Ain't no fucking way Biden is winning Duval by 10, Escambia at all or only losing Marion by 5.
Ain't. No. Way.
Not to mention, the Democrats were humiliated by "the next Obama" getting caught in a hilariously straightforward gay-meth-hooker scandal. I guarantee you some Republican strategist has a general anti-dem ad ready to make them look like a joke. I think you'll see it released in early October. Plus, black turnout will probably be way down from 2016 and 2020. If the ad exists, it'll depress it locally even further. No black church is going to like associating with the party of PNP.
your mostly on the money but I have 2 things i'd argue:
3) Your right on w/ legal latinos, but remember that illegal voting from illegals is a constant, as even if it isn't a talking point, their biggest priority is their lives and do not want to be sent back to mexico unless they are grabbing more cocaine. They heavily outnumber any legal vote trump really gets from latinos, so keep it in mind.
6b) Turning point and the neocon republicans always try to push this. Should blacks be repub? Probably. Will they EVER? No, the black vote will never sway enough to make a difference for the same reason many people quit their jobs at the start of covid: "It pays more to not work with our nice social programs".
Trump doesn't need to flip people, just have them sit out. Biden can't even rally enough people to beat Chick-fil-a cow day.
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Anyone want to check this BS they are peddling? I know for PA, FL, NH, and MN have Republicans way up in registration while only Pedofornia is extremely high for Dem. Others seem to be leaning R or are relatively stable. Is it a (((poll)))?
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Registration is easy to change, and as far as I know comes from only internal party sources.
Look at gun purchases instead. A regular handgun can easily cost 500 dollars. It has a fairly high barrier of entry to purchase. It is also a very party-defining policy:

Don't know the source for the pic, but I believe it.
Gun sales aren't just increasing: they're skyrocketing. . I bought two rifles at a show recently, and couldn't get them because background checks were 24+ hours. The store I got them from said they normally have 10 come through each year. This year was 73. We are set to pass last year's total gun sales soon, which itself was the highest sales ever.
A Republican buying guns doesn't nessicarily reveal anything about their outlook. A Democrat, on the other hand, is a sign of low confidence and loyalty to their party. If a Democrat is willing to spend $500 on an issue that goes against their party's goal on a fundamental level, how supportive of their party are they really? Worse, if they're willing to spend $500, how likely are they to support a party trying to take away their new gun? That's a hell of a lot of money to waste on a lark, especially during a major economic disruption.
I guarantee you every democratic strategist is shitting their pants whenever this comes up. They've been very quiet about guns this year (with the exception of Beto). They know this is toxic to them, like anti-gay marriage became to Republicans in the mid-2010's. However, nobody cares about that topic anymore, it's not even a good cudgel for the left. The gun issue is the opposite: there are no longer any "casual" gun owners. Every single one of them is a stauch advocate for public armaments now. It's gone from "grandaddy's old hunting rifle as an heirloom" to "cold dead hands", and only seems to be getting stronger.
Ignore free polls and free registration, look at money spent. The Democrats can't even hold their own members.