Thinking about this some more, I think the higher payout is to nominate and confirm.
Pros
- Eliminates strong Democratic motivator for election. Like what
@heyitsmike said, this is a huge thing.
- Trump can utilize this to shore up some of his support, by nominating a woman (better yet a Latina). This can also blunt some of the Democratic accusations.
- Trump can still appoint a Constitutionalist in the next term, as it makes it far safer for Justice Thomas and some others to retire.
- Secures Conservative legacy, as increasing the size of the judiciary is far less tangible and harder to do (and more politically uncomfortable), even with Democratic control of Congress.
- High likelihood of depressing Democrat vote upon success, slight-moderate Republican boost from victory glow/promises kept.
- Forces Kamala and Joe to stay in Washington.
- May create judicial backup in case election is contested.
- Hedging the bets, I think that the Supreme Court doesn't matter that much to normies, who might just see it as a boring abstract institution.
Either Way
- Strong media circus may allow some political maneuvering to happen outside the spotlight.
- High likelihood of leftist violence during the proceedings.
Cons
- Huge risk if RINOS cause it to fail- may reinvigorate Democrat vote in the short period ahead of the election.
- Creates uncertainty during a period when the President needs to look resolute.
- Strong likelihood of a strong negative media circus in crucial period where positive news is important.
- Strong likehood of turning off some moderates who may consider it 'Republican hypocrisy'- moderate-strength Democrat platform plank would be gained.
