2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Someone Awful]

What happens to the right if Biden wins the election? Will it completely demoralize them? It can't be a good sign if the leftists and the MSM scream and terrorize the nation for four years then win the presidency, and probably the Senate too.

I hope that doesn't happen though. Who the hell really wants a Biden/Harris presidency or to give the Democratic Party complete control over government?

If Barrett/Lagoa/Rushing gets blocked by RINOs, it will be hell for anyone that is not part of the progressive stack. I don't think it's possible to underestimate what a Harris administration will do since the DNC will make sure no other party obtains the presidency again. Any dissidents will be forced underground to figure out how to topple this nightmare of a government, which would likely take decades.

If Trumps gets a judge through and he still loses, then we have at least one form of check and balance for decades to come. A judiciary with a constitutionalist leaning would be able to strike down the worst laws that passes through Congress due to it being against what the Constitution says, at least if we get Barrett in. We probably wouldn't see them stack the court with adding more far left judges for example as that would be ruled as an abuse of power by the President and Congress. The right would then continue to search for populists candidates like Trump to face off against Harris as those are the candidate that can win against Democrats. Neocons are unelectable at the national level and Republicans know it. So still bad but we could recover from a term of Horrible Harris if the right knows what they are doing.

I hope to god we get a ninth judge in before election. Not only to deal with the inevitable VBM fraud to prevent a 4-4 split where the lower court decides that Biden wins, but also because even if Trump loses, it will still be there to give Harris pause if say, she wants to push through legalizing child-adult sex (aka rape).

 

[StarkRavingMad]

Regarding Pennsylvania, um guys, bad news.

Trafalgar Group has Biden two points ahead of Trump.

Trafalgar Group is a Republican-leaning pollster where Barnes is from. While they were right about calling every state in 2016 (except maybe Nevada but I don't have the link and that state typically over represents Republicans anyway), it was by a smaller margin by states Trump won and in the case of Colorado, Clinton won by a margin at least four times as high (Clinton +1 was the prediction Trafalgar made). That means internal polling might have Trump at three or four points behind Biden and there is only a month and a half left to make up that gap. The poll was made before Ginsburg's death for your information.

It explains why Trump is doing a double week in Pennsylvania this week. Expect him to make multiple trips to the state next month. He needs to treat the state like he did Michigan in 2016. Michigan's insane "count mail in ballots two weeks after the election" rule makes it a very difficult grab like Nevada and Virginia so if Trump loses Pennsylvania, he has to get Arizona and one more of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. If he fails to get Arizona, he has to get all three of the latter states. I think Trump can get enough of the anti-war votes to flip New Hampshire and I'm still optimistic on Minnesota due to Baris hinting of horrible turnout in the Twin Cities for Biden and great turnout in the Iron Range for Trump, but Wisconsin and Arizona are big asks this election.

This year is just so insane that I don't know whether I believe in any polls at this point. I feel like this year is incredibly unique, given COVID, and given the fact that so many people are in the closet about being a Trump supporter (especially if you live in a city like Philly in this current climate). I think that there's a lot that you can't predict this time around, which is scary.

That said, I read the report, and if this thing is accurate, then I can easily tell you why the numbers are the way that they are: Women are more likely to vote than men. Come on, men: Grow a pair and vote!

Also, the recent thing that was passed in PA about counting ballots late ... Yeah. That's the reason why PA is going to be a tough fight. I'm curious if this poll has taken into account the in-person vs. mail-in voting, too?

 

[UselessIdiot]

If Barrett/Lagoa/Rushing gets blocked by RINOs, it will be hell for anyone that is not part of the progressive stack. I don't think it's possible to underestimate what a Harris administration will do since the DNC will make sure no other party obtains the presidency again. Any dissidents will be forced underground to figure out how to topple this nightmare of a government, which would likely take decades.

If Trumps gets a judge through and he still loses, then we have at least one form of check and balance for decades to come. A judiciary with a constitutionalist leaning would be able to strike down the worst laws that passes through Congress due to it being against what the Constitution says, at least if we get Barrett in. We probably wouldn't see them stack the court with adding more far left judges for example as that would be ruled as an abuse of power by the President and Congress. The right would then continue to search for populists candidates like Trump to face off against Harris as those are the candidate that can win against Democrats. Neocons are unelectable at the national level and Republicans know it. So still bad but we could recover from a term of Horrible Harris if the right knows what they are doing.

I hope to god we get a ninth judge in before election. Not only to deal with the inevitable VBM fraud to prevent a 4-4 split where the lower court decides that Biden wins, but also because even if Trump loses, it will still be there to give Harris pause if say, she wants to push through legalizing child-adult sex (aka rape).

Yeah, I'm afraid many people don't know what or who they're voting for. My dad is a registered Republican and says he's voting for Biden, but doesn't seem to comprehend he's voting really voting for a California senator with one of the most liberal voting records in Congress.

 

[Someone Awful]

This year is just so insane that I don't know whether I believe in any polls at this point. I feel like this year is incredibly unique, given COVID, and given the fact that so many people are in the closet about being a Trump supporter (especially if you live in a city like Philly in this current climate). I think that there's a lot that you can't predict this time around, which is scary.

That said, I read the report, and if this thing is accurate, then I can easily tell you why the numbers are the way that they are: Women are more likely to vote than men. Come on, men: Grow a pair and vote!

Also, the recent thing that was passed in PA about counting ballots late ... Yeah. That's the reason why PA is going to be a tough fight. I'm curious if this poll has taken into account the in-person vs. mail-in voting, too?

Mail-in ballots can be accepted three days after Election Day in Pennsylvania. Not as bad as Michigan and Nevada, but concerning nonetheless. That said, if Trump can get Barrett or Lagoa pushed through (Rushing will likely be rejected), he has the advantage of a conservative-leaning court that will likely side with Trump. If that happens, he could not only win Pennsylvania but it could also lead to stricter rules about voting by mail. It would also lead to a likely Arizona and possibly Nevada victory too.

All states must require a voting ID and a signed mail-in ballot requested individually that must be turned in the day we elect a president, senator, governor, mayor, city council, etc. All states must also offer voting in-person coronavirus pandemic be damned. The fact the laws are so lenient leaves it susceptible to voting fraud and I hope a potential second Trump term will correct this.

Yeah, I'm afraid many people don't know what or who they're voting for. My dad is a registered Republican and says he's voting for Biden, but doesn't seem to comprehend he's voting really voting for a California senator with one of the most liberal voting records in Congress.

Most are likely hoping that Harris won't somehow waddle her way to becoming the President. If Biden had his cognitive ability while as Vice President, I wouldn't vote for him, but I'd be a lot less worried about this election even if Trump lost. All of my friends will soon find out who will really rule this country if the DNC wins and it's going to be next year.

 

[Bunny Tracks]

I still don't get it. Why is Trump so hated? I remember Bush and how people hated him but the level of hatred for Trump is insane by comparison.

As others have said, it's because he's an asshole, and because all the smug chucklefucks who thought Hillary would be elected are still pissed that he won.

Personally, I don't think it's Trump himself that is the target of all the hatred. I think it's all the insanity and division his mere existence causes that people hate so much. They don't hate him, they hate all the chaos that his presidency has ended up creating, unintentionally, or not.

 

[RedStorm]

Trump is a threat to the political establishment and the government-media-academia complex in multiple ways that Bush wasn't. Therefore they ramp up the propaganda to 11/10. With Bush they had many of the same *kinds* of things (dumb, simpleton, supported by hicks, Hitler, lives of LGTBQIA and minorities are at stake) but they simply amped it up on overdrive 24/7. If Bush at some point between 2000 and 2004 decided to break away from the establishment and go for goals that were actually based, they'd have turned up the heat for him to comparable levels and you'd have seen similar intensity of hatred back then (except that many of the 30 something millennials now were just teenagers back then so you'd have more Gen X'ers sperging out)

 

[legalkochi]

Regarding Pennsylvania, um guys, bad news.

Trafalgar Group has Biden two points ahead of Trump.

Trafalgar Group is a Republican-leaning pollster where Barnes is from. While they were right about calling every state in 2016 (except maybe Nevada but I don't have the link and that state typically over represents Republicans anyway), it was by a smaller margin by states Trump won and in the case of Colorado, Clinton won by a margin at least four times as high (Clinton +1 was the prediction Trafalgar made). That means internal polling might have Trump at three or four points behind Biden and there is only a month and a half left to make up that gap. The poll was made before Ginsburg's death for your information.

It explains why Trump is doing a double week in Pennsylvania this week. Expect him to make multiple trips to the state next month. He needs to treat the state like he did Michigan in 2016. Michigan's insane "count mail in ballots two weeks after the election" rule makes it a very difficult grab like Nevada and Virginia so if Trump loses Pennsylvania, he has to get Arizona and one more of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. If he fails to get Arizona, he has to get all three of the latter states. I think Trump can get enough of the anti-war votes to flip New Hampshire and I'm still optimistic on Minnesota due to Baris hinting of horrible turnout in the Twin Cities for Biden and great turnout in the Iron Range for Trump, but Wisconsin and Arizona are big asks this election.

If you're putting stock in the mainstream polls after 2016 and 2018, then I have some bad news for you.

I don't particularly take a look at the polls. I take a look at the primary totals and the number of net registrants each party is getting this year.

The Republicans have been benefiting massively in terms of net registration (and have done very well in the 2020 primary), even in Bucks County. That's bad news for Democrats.

Also, mainstream polls can't poll the Amish. And the Amish will vote in larger numbers this time around and they're very pro-Trump.

 

[Iwasamwillbe]

I think it's all the insanity and division his mere existence causes that people hate so much.

That's 99% the fault of the mainstream media and Democrat/DNC bullshittery though.

 

[Bunny Tracks]

That's 99% the fault of the mainstream media and Democrat/DNC bullshittery though.

I know, but that's still one of the reasons people don't like him. It's not fair, but it is what it is.

 

[heyitsmike]

they hate all the chaos that his presidency has ended up creating, unintentionally, or not.

Trump doesn't create the crazy, he exposes the crazy.

 

[CrippleThreat]

I know, but that's still one of the reasons people don't like him. It's not fair, but it is what it is.

It's a bit worrying though. Where does all the concentrated hate on Trump go when he does? Does it manifest into an otherworldly being?

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

Regarding Pennsylvania, um guys, bad news.

Trafalgar Group has Biden two points ahead of Trump.

Trafalgar Group is a Republican-leaning pollster where Barnes is from. While they were right about calling every state in 2016 (except maybe Nevada but I don't have the link and that state typically over represents Republicans anyway), it was by a smaller margin by states Trump won and in the case of Colorado, Clinton won by a margin at least four times as high (Clinton +1 was the prediction Trafalgar made). That means internal polling might have Trump at three or four points behind Biden and there is only a month and a half left to make up that gap. The poll was made before Ginsburg's death for your information.

It explains why Trump is doing a double week in Pennsylvania this week. Expect him to make multiple trips to the state next month. He needs to treat the state like he did Michigan in 2016. Michigan's insane "count mail in ballots two weeks after the election" rule makes it a very difficult grab like Nevada and Virginia so if Trump loses Pennsylvania, he has to get Arizona and one more of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. If he fails to get Arizona, he has to get all three of the latter states. I think Trump can get enough of the anti-war votes to flip New Hampshire and I'm still optimistic on Minnesota due to Baris hinting of horrible turnout in the Twin Cities for Biden and great turnout in the Iron Range for Trump, but Wisconsin and Arizona are big asks this election.

Three things:

1) They oversampled the Philly area by just under 10%. Who knows what they count as Philadelphia, though.

2) The Rust Belt decides later in the election cycle than other states. Baris has talked about this, even Trump has said he only won the election in October last time around. It's still a little early, so, if things move like they did in 2016, he still has room to surge.

3) This is within the margin of error. That means it's still basically anybody's ball game in PA. If there is a surge of support from people who aren't represented well in the sample (Trafalgar is generally excellent, so who knows about that) or turnout shifts down from 2016 in key dem voting blocs (black people) then this is basically just saying it's about neck-and-neck.

Don't be too demotivated by something like this. It's basically too close to call, though Trump needs a good margin so that the dem voting fraud shenanigans don't fuck him.

 

[-4ZURE-]

I still don't get it. Why is Trump so hated? I remember Bush and how people hated him but the level of hatred for Trump is insane by comparison.

He is the new Bill Clinton. His presidency marks a fundamental change in American politics that will likely be good for a decade or so before the Dems inevitably become the better party and the cycle continues as the two Switch off.

Bill Clinton was sort of in the same boat. A candidate that was never supposed to win, they tried to impeach him for the dumbest of reasons, and the structure of the previous establishment is starting to weigh as people believe they are outdated. Bill brought in much positive change, regardless of feelings on him now, in the reforms of old religious nuts losing power, LGBT becoming more accepted, females taking huge positions of power, etc.. Republicans and networks wanted Bill gone as he changed the landscape as a whole, and in pushing his demise, they ended up killing themselves in the process and having to conform to his policies.

Trump is not much different. Trump is swinging the pendulum back, but instead of religious bigotry he is pushing for less globalization and overglorification of marginalized groups. He is taking on the call of many poor Americans who have been left out in a world that is becoming increasingly similar to that of the previous 20s. The hatred of him stems from a push to remain in a sort of ‘normalcy’ or false progress. Many Americans believed all that can be accomplished was pretty much done under Obama, so anything that sees the Left as bad is against progress! Media wants Trump gone, along with progressives in political positions (ie. Sanders, Tulsi, and Yang), as they want to keep their new 1920s of getting sweet China money and letting tech control people’s lives. Trump and progressive supporters seek to hold them more accountable and bring them to the common level, as seen with Disney’s heavy losses. Companies will shill against Trump as it is in their best interest to keep the status quo, while most Americans live in poverty and with different mental illnesses at the moment.

Supporters of the Dems seem to be either in full belief that the other side is full of Nazis or they want to keep the status quo because the world was simpler under Obama. Trump is hated as he messes with people’s way of life, even though this impediment was an inevitability. Angers were growing under Obama, Trump was just the first to fully display that the media picture that Obama is perfect and so was his era was hiding some darkness behind it. As such Trump is hated as he brought out a truth many could not handle.

I guess that is my answer. Trump really is just a major game changer and it will take time to adjust to a new normal. Some accept it, some will fight it, but inevitably change will come. The Obama-Clinton reign was never going to last, just like the religious Reagan reign did not. These people either could move on or choose to keep a nostalgic past time, and the problem is, most seem to prefer nostalgia to advancement.

 

[heyitsmike]

His presidency marks a fundamental change in American politics that will likely be good for a decade or so before the Dems inevitably become the better party and the cycle continues as the two Switch off.

This is not a change in American politics, this is a worldwide change. This is the first real post WWII paradigm shift. I don't know how long populism will be here, but Nationalism will be here a while.

Left wing parties all over the world have been unable to adapt. The Tories have already been in power for ten years across the pond and I doubt Labour will be getting in anytime soon. And they're in better shape than the Dems.

 

[Exterminatus]

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They have the votes to replace Ginsberg. The DNC couldn't find enough RINOs to betray America.

Weren't Collins, Murkowski, Grassley, and Romney going to cuck to stop it or did they back out after talking with Ted or McConnell?

Russia did effectively fall into a low-level civil war after the collapse of the USSR. A lot of military weapons were sold to Chechen rebels on the black market and Russia struggled for years to put down the resulting rebellion, only really succeeding in the last few years under Putin. Ex-Soviet military arms were also sold internationally to conflicts around the world. Despite the general collapse of social institutions they managed to stop rebels from actually getting hold of nuclear materials though.

Pakistan is in a similar situation where there has historically been a lot of unrest, especially back in the 2000s around the Bhutto assassination, but not utter collapse to the point where rebels got nuclear warheads. I don't expect the USA to slide into that level of chaos any time soon, though a low level civil war far short of the point of rebels seizing nuclear missiles, like the Irish Troubles, is more likely.

I heard a lot of the apparent grenade attacks in Sweden have been committed using Soviet made grenades that were probably sold off or just stolen and shipped off after the USSR collapsed.

I still don't get it. Why is Trump so hated? I remember Bush and how people hated him but the level of hatred for Trump is insane by comparison.

He's an outsider, he was never in the military and never held an elected office. He was just a man from a relatively rich family in Queens, New York but while he brought up with wealth and likely never wanted for much in his younger life, he was still on the outside looking in. His father Fred Trump, Sr. was a real estate man and made a lot of money in the game himself but some of the real estate dealing was on the more shady side of things and that translated over to Donald once he took over where his dad left off. Plus as an outsider he came in and kicked over their sand castle which pissed them off something fierce and every time they see him hold a press conference or holding a rally they can only respond by seething because he reminds them of their 2016 failure and they haven't gotten over it 4 years later.

Like others have said as well his brash, more crude nature rubs them the wrong way too because they would've literally fainted on the spot if Obama had a tape leak talking about grabbing women by the pussy but Americans were already pretty familiar with Trump thanks to his public lifestyle and of course later on he had shows like The Apprentice that were largely successful because people wanted to see him chew out a bunch of losers and tell them they're fired, kinda like how people want to see Gordon Ramsay flip out at shitty chefs and go on profane tirades. Even the evangelical and religious right tend to put his brash nature to the side because they know he'll still work to maintain religious freedom and not come across as hostile like Obama did when he berated them for "being bitter and holding onto their guns and Bibles".

Another thing that fuels this burning hatred from the Dems and media is that he goes out of his way to mock them, he will always bring up their latest failures or gaffes and zing them incessantly. Every time Joe Biden has a gaffe Trump immediately jumps on it to laugh at how they've decided to use a man with dementia to try to beat him this year. When Antifa commits violence and the mayors and governors of these cities fail to stop it he brings it up and even features it in his ads. Every waking moment for them this year has been Trump putting a spotlight on their fuck ups which has made them even angrier.

With the media in particular he's mocked stuff like "mostly peaceful protests" and declared them an enemy of the American people albeit without actually using federal power to silence them as that's clearly illegal. He loves picking on these networks that spent about two years (2015-2016) mocking him for his campaign for President and to their shock and horror he fucking won, now they had to deal with this asshole they'd laughed at for 2 years every day for the next 4 years and Trump damn sure wasn't going to let them forget everything they did to him. On Trump's part it's a very popular move with his base as anyone with eyes can see how blatantly they go after him over every little thing he says, even when clearly joking and this of course riles them up because they hate seeing a man they support get drug through the mud and they see it as very unfair to Trump, even when Trump has big successes like the recent Bahrain-Israel agreement and the UAE-Israel agreement, they have to attack him even over petty things like the social distancing bullshit but Trump won't let up off them for a minute, they spew shit at him and he's more than happy to fire right back.

 

[Someone Awful]

Three things:

1) They oversampled the Philly area by just under 10%. Who knows what they count as Philadelphia, though.

2) The Rust Belt decides later in the election cycle than other states. Baris has talked about this, even Trump has said he only won the election in October last time around. It's still a little early, so, if things move like they did in 2016, he still has room to surge.

3) This is within the margin of error. That means it's still basically anybody's ball game in PA. If there is a surge of support from people who aren't represented well in the sample (Trafalgar is generally excellent, so who knows about that) or turnout shifts down from 2016 in key dem voting blocs (black people) then this is basically just saying it's about neck-and-neck.

Don't be too demotivated by something like this. It's basically too close to cal, though Trump needs a good margin so that the dem voting fraud shenanigans don't fuck him.

I wouldn't say I'm demoralized by the news, but more that it concerned me since it's much harder to wash off a Pennsylvania defeat than Wisconsin, Michigan, or Arizona.

Having said that, those are fair points and I didn't even know they oversampled the Philadelphia area, which is dominated by Democrats. Though that makes me wonder if Bucks County is considered part of the Philly area. That makes me wonder, aside from New Hampshire and Arizona again, what other swing states could Trafalgar Group poll?

This is not a change in American politics, this is a worldwide change. This is the first real post WWII paradigm shift. I don't know how long populism will be here, but Nationalism will be here a while.

Left wing parties all over the world have been unable to adapt. The Tories have already been in power for ten years across the pond and I doubt Labour will be getting in anytime soon. And they're in better shape than the Dems.

Labour outright nominated a socialist and suffered their worst defeat in decades. The 2020 election, on the other hand, will be going down to the wire. I'd say the Democrats are in better shape but that if they lose, there are more severe consequences to a potential defeat.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

Trafalgar's last PA poll in July was Biden +5, so it's better. We don't know how they're weighting PA, so I don't get too excited. The trend is more important.

 

[heyitsmike]

I'd say the Democrats are in better shape but that if they lose, there are more severe consequences to a potential defeat.

Labour was able to come up with Keir Starmer. The Dems came up with Joe Biden. I don't want to hear the Dems are in better shape.

 

[tehpope]

He is the new Bill Clinton. His presidency marks a fundamental change in American politics that will likely be good for a decade or so before the Dems inevitably become the better party and the cycle continues as the two Switch off.

Bill Clinton was sort of in the same boat. A candidate that was never supposed to win, they tried to impeach him for the dumbest of reasons, and the structure of the previous establishment is starting to weigh as people believe they are outdated. Bill brought in much positive change, regardless of feelings on him now, in the reforms of old religious nuts losing power, LGBT becoming more accepted, females taking huge positions of power, etc.. Republicans and networks wanted Bill gone as he changed the landscape as a whole, and in pushing his demise, they ended up killing themselves in the process and having to conform to his policies.

Trump is not much different. Trump is swinging the pendulum back, but instead of religious bigotry he is pushing for less globalization and overglorification of marginalized groups. He is taking on the call of many poor Americans who have been left out in a world that is becoming increasingly similar to that of the previous 20s. The hatred of him stems from a push to remain in a sort of ‘normalcy’ or false progress. Many Americans believed all that can be accomplished was pretty much done under Obama, so anything that sees the Left as bad is against progress! Media wants Trump gone, along with progressives in political positions (ie. Sanders, Tulsi, and Yang), as they want to keep their new 1920s of getting sweet China money and letting tech control people’s lives. Trump and progressive supporters seek to hold them more accountable and bring them to the common level, as seen with Disney’s heavy losses. Companies will shill against Trump as it is in their best interest to keep the status quo, while most Americans live in poverty and with different mental illnesses at the moment.

Supporters of the Dems seem to be either in full belief that the other side is full of Nazis or they want to keep the status quo because the world was simpler under Obama. Trump is hated as he messes with people’s way of life, even though this impediment was an inevitability. Angers were growing under Obama, Trump was just the first to fully display that the media picture that Obama is perfect and so was his era was hiding some darkness behind it. As such Trump is hated as he brought out a truth many could not handle.

I guess that is my answer. Trump really is just a major game changer and it will take time to adjust to a new normal. Some accept it, some will fight it, but inevitably change will come. The Obama-Clinton reign was never going to last, just like the religious Reagan reign did not. These people either could move on or choose to keep a nostalgic past time, and the problem is, most seem to prefer nostalgia to advancement.

I think Trump is a mix of Reagan and Clinton. Regan was an ousider from Hollywood, who'd switched parties, had a rabid fanbase (Yuppies), and signaled a major political change. Trump is also an outsider, been in the Hollywood system, has switched parties, has a rabid fanbase (name still pending), and pretty much signaled a major political change. Though Reagan did have political experience, being the governor of California from 67 to 75. Also Reagan and Trump both resided over a huge economical growth in America. The largest in its history at their respected times.

I remember a clip being shown in the Power of Nightmares from the 92 election, where a GOP voter was talking about how he used to vote red down the line but decided to vote for Clinton because the right had left him. The same is happeing now, but with the left.

 

[GuntPunt]

Regarding Pennsylvania, um guys, bad news.

Trafalgar Group has Biden two points ahead of Trump.

Trafalgar Group is a Republican-leaning pollster where Barnes is from. While they were right about calling every state in 2016 (except maybe Nevada but I don't have the link and that state typically over represents Republicans anyway), it was by a smaller margin by states Trump won and in the case of Colorado, Clinton won by a margin at least four times as high (Clinton +1 was the prediction Trafalgar made). That means internal polling might have Trump at three or four points behind Biden and there is only a month and a half left to make up that gap. The poll was made before Ginsburg's death for your information.

It explains why Trump is doing a double week in Pennsylvania this week. Expect him to make multiple trips to the state next month. He needs to treat the state like he did Michigan in 2016. Michigan's insane "count mail in ballots two weeks after the election" rule makes it a very difficult grab like Nevada and Virginia so if Trump loses Pennsylvania, he has to get Arizona and one more of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. If he fails to get Arizona, he has to get all three of the latter states. I think Trump can get enough of the anti-war votes to flip New Hampshire and I'm still optimistic on Minnesota due to Baris hinting of horrible turnout in the Twin Cities for Biden and great turnout in the Iron Range for Trump, but Wisconsin and Arizona are big asks this election.

Took a look at Trafalger's PA poll. The margin of error is 2.99%. Even though "x is ahead," its a statistical tie. Furthermore, we know from Barris that polling the Rust Belt in general is hard. Finally, you got to look at the fundamentals. Wisconsin voters decided to pick Trump in the last week of 2016, securing him the state. PA is the hardest Rust Belt state in realignment towards Trump. Anyways, this is a post RGB death world now. Game's changed, and Baris was kicking himself last Saturday because it may have just invalidated his polling.

The election is going to be close like last time. Don't kid yourself otherwise.