- Joined
- Apr 22, 2019
I think the Dems switched on positions on mail in voting because their voters were actually falling for this...
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That's what concerns me. I've been saying this several times before, but we cannot underestimate the DNC's competence no matter how many mistakes they might make. They are only starting to backpedal from voting by mail because they are seeing that they are being investigated and called out for attempts at voting fraud and that a conservative Supreme Court justice without concerning records like Barbara Lagoa would destroy their plans when brought to the Supreme Court.
Unfortunately, it looks like we are getting Barrett and there is no doubt the Democrats have done their homework to target her. I've watched several interviews on One American News Network (OANN) and it was mind blowing that with all of their hyping for Barrett that none of them brought up any concerns that she might be attacked on her record. They are making the same mistakes the Democratic establishment often makes, which is to underestimate their enemy. If Trump and the Republicans aren't prepared to defend her record - and I'm worried they're not - we're going to be boxed out of far more than just a non-far left Supreme Court nomination and an election. He can't afford another backlash like the coronavirus this close to the election. Even if she does get through, Barnes has suggested she will be another Roberts so can we really trust her to rule against voting fraud when the contested election gets to the Supreme Court?
I guess all we can do is wait until Saturday at 5 PM EST and hope that Trump knows something we don't. It will be hell to get Barrett through the RINOs and no, Romney, Murkowski, and Gardner didn't say they would vote to confirm, only that it would be on qualification.
It's a reasonable assumption. Barrett was literally the second choice for Anthony Kennedy's replacement, Trump just wanted her to have more experience so he went with Kavanaugh instead. I believe that Barrett is Trump's most wanted choice to replace Ginsburg since she is pro-life and came close to being nominated. Even if she is a Roberts, she will vote more conservatively than Ginsburg. Like you said, even if Lagoa gets in the Supreme Court first, once Thomas steps down (Breyer will never give up his seat during a second Trump term), she will be coming in. Of course I consider Lagoa to be a much better choice since we already know she joined the majority in the Florida Supreme Court to strike down allowing felons who haven't paid retribution to vote.Part of me wonders if Trump will really go with Barrett this close to the election as opposed to going with Lagoa. Keep in mind that a lot of the hype around Barrett comes from the fact she nearly filled the seat that Brett Kavanaugh currently is sitting on and everyone more or less assumed she's going to replace RBG. The media's been at least partly aware of her being in the running for SCOTUS since 2018.
I still think it's a 50/50 shot of being either Lagoa or Barrett but I'm fairly sure that Trump would know the Democrats have done their homework on her since 2018 and while she's not quite as susceptible to the usual tricks a white male judge would be attacked with, she's a Christian and a very devout one at that and that is more or less political poison to Millennials and gives the DNC a boon to their smear campaigns.
Ideally, I think Trump could let the GOP hype up Barrett and then pick Lagoa since Trump knows how the media game is played and remembers the shitshow of the Kavanaugh hearings. Barrett will probably replace Stephen Breyer or Clarence Thomas if Trump wins a second term.
Part of me also wonders if the poll hyping is part of a wider campaign to get Trump voters to be complacent and stay home thinking he has it in the bag. If it weren't for COVID-19 and the big riots, it'd actually be a good strategy in concept.
I honestly think Biden was picked to be a jobber candidate during the primaries after Tulsi sank Kamala and the DNC had to make sure Bernie didn't get the nomination. Then Corona happened and the DNC were given a golden opportunity to actually take back the White House this year, but I think the BLM coup is probably going to doom those efforts.
Best case scenario, Trump picks Lagoa and we get a quick and easy vote to confirm and the RBG arc is completely resolved by the end of the first week of October.
If Barrett gets picked then I still think they can get all the votes they need to get her confirmed by mid-October but it'll be a bit trickier and there will be more of a media circus. Romney will cuck out if Barrett gets picked but I can see someone like Joe Manchin voting to confirm Barrett more than Lagoa since Manchin is a relic of the Blue Dogs and West Virginia is firmly now a deep red state after spending decades as a staunchly pro-union purple state. Appalachia is one of the few regions in the country where being pro-life is seen as a complete net positive too, so Manchin will vote for Barrett to keep his seat in 2022.
I think Trump can probably get the 51 senators needed to confirm Barrett even if Romney and Gardner go against it provided he can get Manchin to vote for it and Mike Pence be the tie breaker.
Still, I think Trump might do a shocking swerve and go with Lagoa given how contested the big election is going to be and how quickly he wants to get this over with before November. It's not 4D Chess but just basic preparation, The Democrats have been zeroing in on Barrett's religious views already while Lagoa can help him get a boost in Florida.
All they have on Lagoa is "inexperience." You know who else was touted for inexperience (primarily because of youth)?I think he's 4dChessing and it's working them to think it's Not Cuban Chick and then he's all OH FUCK SWERVE IT'S THE CUBAN CHICK so then the media has to yell more about whatever bullshit they come up with like she santeria-ed a puppy or whatever.
If (and this is a big if) Lagoa gets nominated and Chuck Schumer is smart, he will order the Democrats to fall in and do a bipartisan confirmation. It would minimize the damage and demoralization it would do to their base and they could continue pivoting towards getting their voters to head to the polls instead of VBM since they would not be able to rely on stealing the election like they are now. No need to drag out a losing battle. I believe that is what will happen.All they have on Lagoa is "inexperience." You know who else was touted for inexperience (primarily because of youth)?
John F. Kennedy. The Dems would have to pull Ford ×5 to stand a chance.
With all of Trump talks with Barrett, the 4D move would be him telling her to pray that he wins, so that when others justices retire, she'll come in, but just for needed politics, Lagoa goes in and he further beats Dems with Latinos.
You're falling for the media narrative. They're both Catholic. So tell me specifically why you think Barrett is more religious than Lagoa. I doubt you have a good answer.she's a Christian and a very devout one at that and that is more or less political poison to Millennials and gives the DNC a boon to their smear campaigns.
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So uh, yeah. Amazing that right after Ginsberg dies the DNC immediately starts backpedaling on that "everyone must mail in their votes" thing.
It's almost like they had plans on using the SCOTUS to ensure the fix was in.
I really wanted Allison Jones Rushing.![]()
Negotiations aren't an option for Schumer anymore. The base is out of control, it would only embolden the socialist/ anti-neolib wing. That's upwards of 30% of their electoral coalition yet has gotten snub after snub after snub.If (and this is a big if) Lagoa gets nominated and Chuck Schumer is smart, he will order the Democrats to fall in and do a bipartisan confirmation. It would minimize the damage and demoralization it would do to their base and they could continue pivoting towards getting their voters to head to the polls instead of VBM since they would not be able to rely on stealing the election like they are now. No need to drag out a losing battle. I believe that is what will happen.
Good luck to them if they try to pull a media circus though. Especially if they try to pull the race, Catholic, abortion, or anti-LGBT card.
To follow up on this.
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https://twitter.com/JoyAnnReid/status/1308958330816167936 (https://archive.vn/7AeLL)
Just a handful of the responses:
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I've never thought a landslide was possible -- too much opposition. It would be great if he were able to keep the 2016 electoral map, and then maybe grab Minnesota too.I dont see why people are talking about a landslide for trump? i cant get him above 350, even with very favourable turnout in some states. thats good but not a landslide.
I dont see why people are talking about a landslide for trump? i cant get him above 350, even with very favourable turnout in some states. thats good but not a landslide.
352 is the max for trump in a good night. thats all states he can flip without Biden collapsing. it would take him +2 nation wide to do that.or ~330 or more support for Trump. These extreme levels are already pushing what is likely going to happen.