Interesting stuff from Baris on Friday. Better late than never.
Ohio has been getting extremely Republican. His voter file now presumes an R+10 registered voter advantage.
Remember when I said Florida had an 267k Democratic registration advantage
on Wendesday? Well, voter file updated again recently and now the Democratic voter edge in Florida has shrunk again to 183k. Baris thought this was impossible to get it under 200k before the election. He says now due to this extreme change that the Florida electorate will likely be MORE than R+1.
In the Rust Belt poll, when reviewing internals, white men and women were about equal in their high support for Trump. This was shocking to him.
A lot of polls like Cohn for NYT are predicting a 90+% turnout election where 40% are new voters are voting exclusively for Biden. It takes Trump's 8+ lead in Texas to +2, take Georgia from Trump+8 to tied, to take Iowa from Trump+8 to Biden+2. In the Iowa caucua, Dem turnout was dogshit, and Republican was record breaking for an incumbant. What Nate Cohn is telling you, is that there is going to be another 250k votes and they are going to break 80-20 for Biden, the guy who didn't even win the Bronze medal in the caucus.
There is no observable surge in voters 18-29. Trump is doing better in this age group in places like MN because they are the motivated Trump vote. Young Biden voters are unenthusiastic to say the least.
Nate Plastic was shitting on Fox polls until they said Biden was +4 in Ohio. Then he rated them an A pollster. Lol.
"I used to think that poll with him leading with Hispanics was a joke. There are places in the country- Its not monolithic. More working class Hispanics, he is doing very well." 1:54:20 timestamp.
"Don't get your hopes on Red Virginia."
SCOTUS battles never change much for Democrats because those voters always get out to vote anyways. Evangelicals can get juiced and can switch from soft Biden who don't like Trump and go back. Trump can now win those voters back if they attack ACB's religion. Barnes BTFO.