- Joined
- Aug 11, 2020
Here is my guess for a pre-debate map.
The solid colors are things that are about 90% likely to be called for that candidate on election night. The tilt colors are going to be extremely close and can change based on a variety of factors. This is all factoring in without mail in ballot shennanigans. Dispute it and rate
to your heart's content.
The solid colors are things that are about 90% likely to be called for that candidate on election night. The tilt colors are going to be extremely close and can change based on a variety of factors. This is all factoring in without mail in ballot shennanigans. Dispute it and rate
Safe picks:
TX and GA: lol. Non competitive unless they do some insane fraud. Don't let your guard down, though.
CO, NM, and VA: non-competitive. Too many California transplants and/or Mexicans. As for VA, it has become a DC satellite state up north. Please cut out the cancer and save the Commonwealth.
Swing State Safe Picks:
OH and IA: non-competitive due to the results gathered, no campaigning done, and voter registration trends. Even Nate Carbon says they are more likely Trump. Would love to see proof otherwise for a more educated explanation.
FL and NC: non-competitive due to extreme realignment towards Republicans. At the rate the registrations are going, FL might go into election day with a 100k Democrat registration advantage or less, the most Republican Florida has been in history. NC is going though a similar political realignment with extreme Democrat registered losses and even larger Rep gains.
NE-2 and ME-2: non competitive due to multiple reasons. Apparently NE2 is raising 3 to 1 more money for Trump than Biden. ME2 is mostly rural. Either can be placed in the tilt until someone does an actual decent poll there.
Tilt Margin:
AZ: tilt towards Trump. Maricopa is growing more Republican (+5) in registration and is the deciding county in the state. SC battle will also energize the McCain Republicans to come home.
MN: tilt Trump due to riots, trends, and endorsements. The Iron Range endorsing Trump and the riots make me think that MN is going red. Even though the cookie poll is bullshit, it is an indicator of suburbianites in the Minneapolis area showing extreme visible enthusiasm for Trump. Depends if Illian Omar decides to bring in her harvesting squad.
PA: tilt towards Trump. Going through similar or even more extreme realignments that OH, FL and NC are doing. Only thing I can think that would stral the state is mail in ballots. PA Republicans are taking it to the SC now, so we shall see. ( Why not the appeals court? Am I missing something here?)
NH: tilt Trump because Baris said he polled it and Trump was up. Only reason I got. Can go either way due to lack of direct information and extremely close 2016 margin.
MI: tilt Biden due to Detroit and mail in voting fraud. Witmer is going to give it her all to make sure Trump does not suprise anyone in Michigan again. She is probably going to allow VBM counted for days without checking.
WI: tilt towards Biden because I don't know. Wisconsin voters decide really late, and even though Kenosha happened, I am getting mixed signals from WI. This can easily change if they burn down Kenosha again like Louisville. Might happen sooner than later due to Kenosha police issuing warnings about something happening soon, just like Louisville.
NV: tilt Biden because VBM fraud and Californians. Pretty much it.
TX and GA: lol. Non competitive unless they do some insane fraud. Don't let your guard down, though.
CO, NM, and VA: non-competitive. Too many California transplants and/or Mexicans. As for VA, it has become a DC satellite state up north. Please cut out the cancer and save the Commonwealth.
Swing State Safe Picks:
OH and IA: non-competitive due to the results gathered, no campaigning done, and voter registration trends. Even Nate Carbon says they are more likely Trump. Would love to see proof otherwise for a more educated explanation.
FL and NC: non-competitive due to extreme realignment towards Republicans. At the rate the registrations are going, FL might go into election day with a 100k Democrat registration advantage or less, the most Republican Florida has been in history. NC is going though a similar political realignment with extreme Democrat registered losses and even larger Rep gains.
NE-2 and ME-2: non competitive due to multiple reasons. Apparently NE2 is raising 3 to 1 more money for Trump than Biden. ME2 is mostly rural. Either can be placed in the tilt until someone does an actual decent poll there.
Tilt Margin:
AZ: tilt towards Trump. Maricopa is growing more Republican (+5) in registration and is the deciding county in the state. SC battle will also energize the McCain Republicans to come home.
MN: tilt Trump due to riots, trends, and endorsements. The Iron Range endorsing Trump and the riots make me think that MN is going red. Even though the cookie poll is bullshit, it is an indicator of suburbianites in the Minneapolis area showing extreme visible enthusiasm for Trump. Depends if Illian Omar decides to bring in her harvesting squad.
PA: tilt towards Trump. Going through similar or even more extreme realignments that OH, FL and NC are doing. Only thing I can think that would stral the state is mail in ballots. PA Republicans are taking it to the SC now, so we shall see. ( Why not the appeals court? Am I missing something here?)
NH: tilt Trump because Baris said he polled it and Trump was up. Only reason I got. Can go either way due to lack of direct information and extremely close 2016 margin.
MI: tilt Biden due to Detroit and mail in voting fraud. Witmer is going to give it her all to make sure Trump does not suprise anyone in Michigan again. She is probably going to allow VBM counted for days without checking.
WI: tilt towards Biden because I don't know. Wisconsin voters decide really late, and even though Kenosha happened, I am getting mixed signals from WI. This can easily change if they burn down Kenosha again like Louisville. Might happen sooner than later due to Kenosha police issuing warnings about something happening soon, just like Louisville.
NV: tilt Biden because VBM fraud and Californians. Pretty much it.
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