I wish more states would give out party registration data. It'd be helpful to how much Minnesota is trending to the right because based on this, it's going to be a closer race than I thought.
I suspect Trump will make gains in rural Minnesota and flip all Iron Range counties except maybe Cook County (which could go either way). Unfortunately, Trump is having issues with keeping suburban voters so he needs to make gains within the Democratic Machine counties of Ramsey and Hennepin County. Thanks to the riots damaging Minneapolis and to a lesser extent, St. Paul's economy, he has a great opportunity to flip voters and there are signs he is already doing that. They won't be red counties, but if he can make them a lighter shade of blue due to depressed turnout for Biden and increased turnout for himself, he can eek out the state by less than 2%.
What's interesting about Pennsylvania is that even in 2004 when the Democrats had a slightly higher share of registered voters than in 2000 that Bush was closer to grabbing it in his re-election campaign. My question is, how did Bush close that gap albeit not win it? Other than that, registration trends have favored if the state became more Democratic or Republican and Trump has the advantage of the most enthusiastic and loyal base since possibly Ronald Reagan. I would have liked to see him pay more attention to Bucks County too, that's a potential flip for Trump. I'm shocked Lackawanna County is a potential flip for Trump TBH. Are Democrats there just not enthused at all about Clinton or Biden?
If Barrett gets confirmed to succeed Ginsburg and Trump can push a successful narrative regarding his fight with COVID-19 (and not face life-threatening complications), then Trump's chances of keeping Pennsylvania skyrockets. Voter registration trends indicate that Trump will win the state by 1-2%, possibly 3% on a really good night. Barrett would rule in favor of Trump in the event of a contested election, giving us a 5-4 majority. The only way that Biden can win Pennsylvania under that circumstance is if he gets a much more enthusiastic turnout among Democrats and that's a hard sell. If Trump can win Pennsylvania by a larger margin, we might be looking at Pennsylvania turning light red.
As for Wisconsin and Michigan, not too much to say. I believe Wisconsin is more competitive than what Baris suspects but can easily see it going either way. Wayne and Macomb County are looking better for Trump, but Biden nostalgia is stronger there than in other Rust Belt states due to the bail out. I'm not sure he can offset enough of the losses in suburban voters to keep the state but if he's trending 15-20% among blacks, he could keep it by razor thing margin.
I'd like to see data in Nevada from 2016 to 2020, not just last year. If Democratic registration trend indicates it's turning blue, then even without voting fraud, it's probably going to stay blue for the foreseeable future. New Mexico might be worth paying attention too though. It won't flip, but if it's trending Republicans, we might see a consequential shift towards the right.
60.3% of the population as of 2019 (
archive) are either Hispanic or Native American and we are seeing Trump losing white support, so a rightward shift would have to come from either populations. New Mexico also has a very old population of Hispanics and unlike Arizona, made practically no gains this decade, so even with a Mexican American population, it's a perfect example to show if non-immigrant Hispanics are trending red in voting patterns or not.
Virginia is a light blue state turning solid blue because of the culture, not because of higher nonwhite population. Unless Trump makes unexpected gains in the suburbs and does better in black support than we think, Virginia is gone for good. It's also why Colorado is solid blue state for the foreseeable future.
Good to know about Georgia performing so well in registration. I'm filing Georgia under Solid Trump for now, especially given its very conservative white population. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Trump made gains in the state.
Regarding Texas, we will have to see what happens with 2020. Trump is going to receive at least around 40% of the Hispanic vote in the state with second largest share of Hispanics but people are also saying it's subjected to Californication. Hopefully Trump can get back to around 10% above Biden in Texas this election but if it makes a significant shift to the left, then that points squarely to the population becoming more liberal.
I hope that Texas doesn't flip this decade, but it might if 2020 only has Trump winning by a hair-raising margin.
of all. We're making something out of ourselves, not through gibs but hard work, but still voting blue. My own mother fits this description. Somewhat conservative, but a total Vote Blue No Matter Who type.
