2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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CrippleThreat said:
Add in the fact that they're throwing Biden out there who, no matter how many lids they give him, is continually deteriorating day by day.
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They had Bernie, an 80 year-old who suffered a heart attack THIS YEAR, campaign for him today.

Think about that for a second: The DNC is more comfortable letting Bernie outside than they are Biden.

But Biden's in great health, amirite?
 
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CrippleThreat said:
And on the media, they know Biden sucks. You have these MSM anchors who are babying Biden, but are holding contempt for the guy because he just can't do it.
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I actually think a lot of the left, including Obama, have changed their mind on Biden being in the race. Because now, if not for him, there'd be no way to get their girl Kamala in since she flamed out so spectacularly.
 
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NBC WEBSITE IS HERE.
NBC shows: early voting is a FAILURE for Democrats.

Republicans are leading in Early voting in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. If trends hold, Dems are fucked in all 4.

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Wisconsin:
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Someone Awful said:
I wish more states would give out party registration data. It'd be helpful to how much Minnesota is trending to the right because based on this, it's going to be a closer race than I thought.

I suspect Trump will make gains in rural Minnesota and flip all Iron Range counties except maybe Cook County (which could go either way). Unfortunately, Trump is having issues with keeping suburban voters so he needs to make gains within the Democratic Machine counties of Ramsey and Hennepin County. Thanks to the riots damaging Minneapolis and to a lesser extent, St. Paul's economy, he has a great opportunity to flip voters and there are signs he is already doing that. They won't be red counties, but if he can make them a lighter shade of blue due to depressed turnout for Biden and increased turnout for himself, he can eek out the state by less than 2%.
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Trump does not need to make gains in Hennepin and Ramsey to flip Minnesota. The state was only won by Hillary by 40,000 votes. In the seven county metro, which is what most people refer to as “Minneapolis and St. Paul”, Hennepin and Ramsey were strongly Democrat and the rest are either Republican or barely went Democrat by less than 10,000 votes. Both Hennepin and Ramsey have the first ring suburbs and a few second ring suburbs,but most of the metro is outside of those counties and leans Republican. Shorewood, where Trump attended a private fundraiser last week, is on the border of Hennepin and Carver Counties. Carver County is the fastest growing county in the state and is half very affluent suburbs and half rural with farms and many people who enjoy shooting guns on their property. Fun fact: Minnesota has one of the highest percentages of households who own firearms, rivaling Texas. Scott, Wright, Anoka are similar to Carver. The enthusiasm for Biden is extremely low for a state that is known as a Democrat stronghold too. The only place I see Biden signs are in Hennepin and Ramsey, while Trump supporters have held several boat parades and rallies with thousands attending.
 
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I have a question.

Who, exactly, is getting polled? Where is the data for all these polls coming from? Are they polling lefty-dominated areas and demographics? Are they just polling college students? What colleges? What states? Just...what? Nobody in my family that I know of has ever been polled. In 2016 I received 1 text asking for a Hillary vote (which was odd because I could not vote then), but other than that, nothing.
 
Clockwork_PurBle said:
I have a question.

Who, exactly, is getting polled? Where is the data for all these polls coming from? Are they polling lefty-dominated areas and demographics? Are they just polling college students? What colleges? What states? Just...what? Nobody in my family that I know of has ever been polled. In 2016 I received 1 text asking for a Hillary vote (which was odd because I could not vote then), but other than that, nothing.
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It's tailored because people are dumb and they like to vote for whoever is in the lead.
 
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Clockwork_PurBle said:
I have a question.

Who, exactly, is getting polled? Where is the data for all these polls coming from? Are they polling lefty-dominated areas and demographics? Are they just polling college students? What colleges? What states? Just...what? Nobody in my family that I know of has ever been polled. In 2016 I received 1 text asking for a Hillary vote (which was odd because I could not vote then), but other than that, nothing.
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It just depends whoever they can get to respond. They use landlines, cell phones, and online. I do a lot of online surveys, so I've done a lot of presidential polls.
 
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Clockwork_PurBle said:
Who, exactly, is getting polled?
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enough people that they get the result they want
there's no legally binding agreement that says you have to report every poll
you just keep doing them in different flavors of horseshit until you get the answer you want to "honestly" report
 
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Clockwork_PurBle said:
I have a question.

Who, exactly, is getting polled? Where is the data for all these polls coming from? Are they polling lefty-dominated areas and demographics? Are they just polling college students? What colleges? What states? Just...what? Nobody in my family that I know of has ever been polled. In 2016 I received 1 text asking for a Hillary vote (which was odd because I could not vote then), but other than that, nothing.
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So here's a map from Baris and Barnes' Inside the Numbers today:

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On the left is Nate Cohn's shitty NYT/Siena poll of Florida with responses. On the right is Baris' Sunshine State Battleground poll with geographic distribution. See where the NYT is missing? For Nate Cohn on the left, look at the area between north Tampa and Tallahassee. There's literally no representation. Look at the region around Gainesville, nothing. Look at everything south of Orlando (hell, even anything around Okeechobee), nothing. Look at the panhandle, almost nothing. Now look at Baris' map. It can be a little difficult to tell where every specific person was polled, but you can tell with the density dots that most of the state was polled (in geographic terms).

This is the state of mainstream polling. They're not getting a representative sample of voters—they're not even really trying. Then they put out a graphic saying "look how amazing we are!"
 
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GuntPunt said:
CNBC shows: early voting is a FAILURE for Democrats.

Republicans are leading in Early voting in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. If trends hold, Dems are fucked in all 4.

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Wisconsin:
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Where exactly is this data from? I've been searching and have been unable to find early voting data for any of these four states broken down by party affiliation. Wisconsin specifically states that it "does not register voters by party preference or affiliation, and has no demographic information available about voters who request absentee ballots," so I don't see how that data could possibly even exist.

EDIT: It looks like the data was "modeled." I'm skeptical, I think they might not be taking COVID into account in their models.
 
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Update on early voting metrics.
Nevada may still be in play, but we have to wait until Clark County (Las Vegas) starts its VBM operation in 4 days on Oct 10. I am not taking it as likely for Trump until we get those results. Sorry for jumping the gun on these results with no context.

In general, this is horrible for Democrats for a variety of reasons. DEMOCRATS ALWAYS LEAD IN THE EARLY VOTE, and here they aren't. This means death come election day, when the Republicans come out en masse due to Trump endorsing it. Not only were they supposed to get out and MOSTLY vote by mail, it seems like that isn't the case in key states. We are talking a 60-70% vote by mail share. Its only 50. Democrats are just not voting at levels to
1. Win key states
2. Cause this 30% new voter electorate going 90% Biden to make it a 10 point Biden lead like in all the polls say.

Youth early voting is way below expected. This should be obvious, because if BERNIE couldn't get them out to get him the nomination, how the fuck would Biden?

Wisconsin in particular is voting a lot by mail and still shows Dems and Republicans tied, with over 200k votes cast. Not a Nevada situation as far as I see (until I can retract it). Jury's out on Michigan.

If you see Florida, before you have a heart attack, remember they sent the ballots to the blue parts a week early. The red parts are catching up, and most will vote on election day.

Again, the trend is that Democrats always lead in early voting as Baris said. We shouldn't take this as a cruise to victory, but a projector of what's to come.

Here is the website if you want to observe results.
 
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