2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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The Pink Panther said:
Ah shit, my betting might be wrong.

I'm still going under the delusion AKA safe guess that Drumpf is not going to win Nevada. Safe guess. He's been more focused on flipping Minnesota and some of the more nearer blue southern states instead of Nevada, so I don't think he'll win Nevada for that reason and not only for other reasons since despite winning by a lower margin in 2016, it was pretty damn blue.
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The fact that Bernie was so strong in Nevada makes me think Trump has a better chance than conventional wisdom suggests.
 
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Stoneheart said:
Nate still doesnt understands that Al Bundy republicans will not talk to pollsters?
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Their logic is that every Trump supporter they see is loud and boisterous, therefore there is no hidden Trump support. They can't wrap their heads around the possibility that not every Trump supporter takes part in boat parades.

Even at the height of the Religious Right, they understood that not every gay person marches in a gay pride parade and there are a lot of people in the closet out fear of being outed. But they can't apply that same logic to Trump supporters.
 
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NeoGAF Lurker said:
I take the left at face value: they absolutely believe Biden will win. The left can only accept that Biden is steamrolling Trump, otherwise they get blackpilled very quickly. If they see them neck and neck, Democrats will get demoralized that because it’s not a total rout, they’re doomed. So the only way to keep flagging enthusiasm up is to have these insane polls. We saw this in the final days of the 2016 election when the Podesta leaks were doing real damage; they can only tolerate things when they are 100% going their way or else it’s lost.
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Yeah and this is a weird mindset we have to grapple with. Republicans are generally very dedicated, while on paper I'm sure there are more Democrats, but a lot of them are not motivated and are not paying attention to politics. They like the idea of being a Democrat because they think that means they're a good person. If a ballot was posted to their door they'd vote D, but they're not gonna show up to a voting booth any time soon because they just don't pay attention to local affairs enough to want to.
Among the twitter and reddit crowd, meanwhile, it's a different story. They believe Democrat victory is inevitable, but they personally don't want to do anything hard to make that a reality. As you say, the minute a poll doesn't go their way they get all huffy and demoralised, because WOW How could ANYONE support a NAZI in the white house?... Republicans see a 20 point deficit and will go out and vote for their guy anyway, even if its a complete wet blanket like McCainn or Romney. With Trump, even non-Republicans have gotten into this mindset for him, which is why he won and why his Primary numbers were so yuge.
The Democrats? Their voters are like Goldilocks. If their lead is too big (Hillary, these insane Biden numbers) they get complacent and figure their 1 vote won't matter so don't vote. If the lead is 1 point or equal, they get paranoid and negative and tell each other Republicans are gonna find a way to cheat them out of it, (and list a bunch of tactics only Democrats have won with) and if the polls say they're trailing? Forget about it.

When Trump was shopping around for a party to run with, I'm sure this was a major factor for going with the GOP. They may be on the wane at the time, but at least their registered voters treat voting like a civic duty. For Democrats, every electoral campaignhas to be framed as a trendy movement to their base.
 
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Honest Coyote said:
Might be good to compile a list of alternative estimates.

Cookie poll:
Trump - 57%
Biden - 43%

NICS Background Checks:
2020 (through end of September, just 9 months): 28,826,449.
Higher than 2019 total - 28,369,750.
2016 total (12 month) - 27,538,673

Rallies - lol, yeah.

Anyone got Amazon sales data? I'm sure it's out there, but I'm not finding anything.
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We've had some guys looking at Amazon sales/reviews and they SAY there's a solid Trump lead. No hard data that I've seen.
 
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Hyrip123876 said:
Yeah and this is a weird mindset we have to grapple with. Republicans are generally very dedicated, while on paper I'm sure there are more Democrats, but a lot of them are not motivated and are not paying attention to politics. They like the idea of being a Democrat because they think that means they're a good person. If a ballot was posted to their door they'd vote D, but they're not gonna show up to a voting booth any time soon because they just don't pay attention to local affairs enough to want to.
Among the twitter and reddit crowd, meanwhile, it's a different story. They believe Democrat victory is inevitable, but they personally don't want to do anything hard to make that a reality. As you say, the minute a poll doesn't go their way they get all huffy and demoralised, because WOW How could ANYONE support a NAZI in the white house?... Republicans see a 20 point deficit and will go out and vote for their guy anyway, even if its a complete wet blanket like McCainn or Romney. With Trump, even non-Republicans have gotten into this mindset for him, which is why he won and why his Primary numbers were so yuge.
The Democrats? Their voters are like Goldilocks. If their lead is too big (Hillary, these insane Biden numbers) they get complacent and figure their 1 vote won't matter so don't vote. If the lead is 1 point or equal, they get paranoid and negative and tell each other Republicans are gonna find a way to cheat them out of it, (and list a bunch of tactics only Democrats have won with) and if the polls say they're trailing? Forget about it.

When Trump was shopping around for a party to run with, I'm sure this was a major factor for going with the GOP. They may be on the wane at the time, but at least their registered voters treat voting like a civic duty. For Democrats, every electoral campaignhas to be framed as a trendy movement to their base.
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I agree with this but disagree with the republicans going out in droves for people like McCain and Romney when part of the reason both lost besides obvious factors is that the conservative republicans felt they didn't pass their conservative purity test which Trump was probably close to falling into as well if it wasn't for his bold messaging and having Mike Pence as his VP
 
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Truthboi said:
I agree with this but disagree with the republicans going out in droves for people like McCain and Romney when part of the reason both lost besides obvious factors is that the conservative republicans felt they didn't pass their conservative purity test which Trump was probably close to falling into as well if it wasn't for his bold messaging and having Mike Pence as his VP
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Yeah. GOP voters can have low turnout if they think the candidate is shit. But it's somewhat difficult to measure/compare because McCain and Romney were up against Obama, who had high-turnout enthusiasm among his base. How would McCain or Romney have hypothetically fared against someone like Biden, who doesn't excite anyone? Would McCain or Romney voters have seemed enthused and motivated then? I don't know.
 
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RockPaper said:
Yeah. GOP voters can have low turnout if they think the candidate is shit. But it's somewhat difficult to measure/compare because McCain and Romney were up against Obama, who had high-turnout enthusiasm among his base. How would McCain or Romney have hypothetically fared against someone like Biden, who doesn't excite anyone? Would McCain or Romney voters have seemed enthused and motivated then? I don't know.
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Well I am aware that being shit candidates was not the only reason for both to lose. Both lacked enthusiasm among their bases while Obama was a charismatic (doesn't necessarily means he is a good one) leader that made people who haven't voted for turn out and he had a message when he was running.

This is also why the DNC is out of touch because they assumed that Obama being black was the only reason he had high turnout when Obama had charisma and a message he seemingly stood behind, both Hillary and Biden have nothing they stand for and both are just transparently career politicians.
 
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GuntPunt said:
View attachment 1644757
Oh no, a 16+ Biden lead! When is Biden campaigning in Texas to run up his landslide?

Does anyone actually believe Biden will win an LBJ landslide? Because Joe sure doesn't. He is in Pennsylvania today.
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Even if Joe won, it wouldn’t be in a landslide, no president has won by double digits in decades.
 
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Truthboi said:
Even if Joe won, it wouldn’t be in a landslide, no president has won by double digits in decades.
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The last landslide in recent memory would be Obama in 2008, and that's mainly because of the conditions unique to that specific election. Between the hype of the "first black president" and how everyone was already pissed at Bush and the GOP, it was going to be a blowout.

Even then, Obama's 2008 win was only a landslide by the most narrow of margins. Especially when you view it in the context of previous landslides like 1980 and 1996. Not even getting into the freak landslides of 1972 and 1984, of course.
 
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GuntPunt said:
View attachment 1644757
Oh no, a 16+ Biden lead! When is Biden campaigning in Texas to run up his landslide?

Does anyone actually believe Biden will win an LBJ landslide? Because Joe sure doesn't. He is in Pennsylvania today.
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I think this is a direct result of a polling company wanting to keep its contract. Imagine if they ran poll that said trump was only behind by a point or two or god forbid ahead. I'd imagine that a sensitive and caring CNN decision maker would be upset and probably not renew said contract.

This isn't even an attempt at propaganda or something, I'm pretty sure it's just business fucking around with CNN.

Capitalism wins again baby.
:story:
 
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Mr. Manchester said:
I think this is a direct result of a polling company wanting to keep its contract. Imagine if they ran poll that said trump was only behind by a point or two or god forbid ahead. I'd imagine that a sensitive and caring CNN decision maker would be upset and probably not renew said contract.

This isn't even an attempt at propaganda or something, I'm pretty sure it's just business fucking around with CNN.

Capitalism wins again baby.
:story:
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Since CNN fired their previous pollster for pro-Trump results, I wouldn't blame them.
 
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Bunny Tracks said:
I would if I could, but I don't want to powerlevel, or dox anyone over this. I'd love to show you that people can, and do have a great time together despite all this chaos, and even if they need to take admittedly annoying precautions now. I'd love to go out, and buy you a beer. It sounds like you really need it, no offense.

As for politics, the people I know just don't talk about it. I know it's incredibly hard to do so nowadays because everything and anything feels like it has to be politicized, but the people over here find a way to do it. They talk about hunting, or fishing, or sports, or whatever else they can. Admittedly, I live in a very small town, and I know my experiences aren't universal, but I also know that all the hatred, and rioting isn't universal either.

For your few friendships, and even though I'm sure you've already done this, all I can recommend is just focusing on what you do have in common with them, and not what you don't. Don't talk about the news, or politics, or whatever. Talk about video games, or TV shows, or whatever else you had in common before all this. If they start rambling on about how awful Trump is or whatever, try to change the subject to something less political. If they refuse to listen, just walk away. It's not worth fighting over. I've had to do that to, and eventually, we made up.

Trust me, my mother suffers from TDS, and she can and will rant about him whenever she gets the chance. This is why whenever I visit, or talk to her, I don't bring up politics, and if she does, I just politely try to change the subject. If she refuses to listen, then I just walk away, or hang up. I don't fight with her, because at the end of the day, I know it's not worth fighting over, and that she's just scared because she's an old, sickly, woman who just afraid for her future and the future of her children. I know it's not an excuse for her behavior, and it does frustrate, and anger the shit out of me, but I love her, and she loves me, and I'm not going to let politics ruin that.

With the panicking over Covid, the majority of people did listen because it was something different from the usual bullshit they'd been hearing for the last four years. It was this new, scary thing that people didn't know how to handle, or much about, so they did go out, and panic at first. Now that they do know more about it, and how it isn't nearly as catastrophic as the media and politicians made it out to be, and how we can now effectively treat it, they've gone back to ignoring them again. Sure, they might still wear a mask, but that's out of common courtesy, and just to save hassle, if anything.
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I see both you and StarkRavingMads points.

Most of my friends are frothing TDS sufferers and as such I have been reduced to being snarky online and posting satire. I have developed a reputation as a shit poster that may or may not support Trump.

Anyway, I finally alienated the worse TDS sufferer not because of Trump but because of the Vic Mignogna case. We could debate whether the president was a Russian asset all day but defend an anime voice actor and that was a step too far.

As for the COVID stuff, we had a man pointing a gun at people for not wearing their masks in public.

My point being that local conditions will vary. That one person's point of reference can be "everyone is still friends" and another's can be "people have thinly veiled contempt for one another."
 
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