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- Apr 16, 2019
"Has never had particularly good instincts for winning general elections."
2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.
- Thread starter Pickle Dick
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MrJokerRager
kiwifarms.net
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- Nov 2, 2019
So far the score is 1-0 in favour of Trump as the first debate was a dumspterfire and in the VP debate, Pence and the Fly saved MAGA 2020. Kamala got fully booty blasted more than I expected.
Presidential Debate Moderator Kristen Welker Deactivates Twitter Account Amidst Partisanship Controversy
NBC News television journalist and upcoming presidential debate moderator Kristen Welker appears to have deactivated or deleted her Twitter accountnationalfile.com
The third debate moderator has deleted their Twitter account. This lends credence to the theory that the Commission is going to cancel the third, and the second was canceled because Scully exposed the moderators' bias and had to nuke his account to prevent further damage.
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- Jul 17, 2019
Or DC going red. /sneed
Trump screwed up the first debate so horribly that he caused the other two moderators to DFE. Now how are we going to archive everything?Presidential Debate Moderator Kristen Welker Deactivates Twitter Account Amidst Partisanship Controversy
NBC News television journalist and upcoming presidential debate moderator Kristen Welker appears to have deactivated or deleted her Twitter account
The third debate moderator has deleted their Twitter account. This lends credence to the theory that the Commission is going to cancel the third, and the second was canceled because Scully exposed the moderators' bias and had to nuke his account to prevent further damage.
Scully can't catch a break.
RockPaper
kiwifarms.net
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- Jan 6, 2020
Every time I see one of Nate's tweets, I want to strangle a puppy. The stupidity is cancerous and painful.
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- Jul 12, 2019
I honestly underestimated Pence. I didn't expect him to do as well as he did.
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- May 19, 2018
...Silver is gonna be revealed as running a Kraut-style gayops server before this is all over, isn't he. This shit seems very familiar.
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- Oct 21, 2019
Yeah Nate Bronze, Trump, who cleanly won a contested primary election, won a general election with a decently intelligent opponent and mainstream media against him, and made big gains in another primary election that didn't even matter, doesn't really know how to win elections.
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- Apr 16, 2019
I don't understand how it's possible to say that with absolutely zero sense of awareness. And to top it off, there's tons of people in that thread agreeing and clapping like trained seals.
It doesn't even cross their minds that they're not the smartest people in the room.
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- May 19, 2018
It's a side effect of wuvving da science, I think. What Silver does is SCIENCE! and they fucking love science, don't they, so that means he's always right and if the facts contradict him then clearly it's the facts that are wrong (courtesy of voter suppression, Putin, or whatever this week's excuse is.) Being a lefty means never having to say "oops."
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- Jul 7, 2020
Trump spoke for two hours straight clearly and concisely (well, as concisely as possible for Trump on a normal day) on Rush Limbaugh's show. This guy is such a fucking putz. You know for a fact he heard about Trump going on Rush's radio show and thought "Oh? Conservative talk radio? Nobody cares about that, it's not even based in New York!" Yet he has the balls to tweet out that he's still suffering from COVID? What a fucking enemy of the people. Trump sounds absolutely normal, yet this fake prophet can go out and say "He's suffering from covid lingering effects. *smug face*" I hate this guy. He deserves a guillotine in Minecraft.
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- Jun 2, 2019
Part of me wants Trump to win just so that no one has to take this stupid fuck seriously ever again.
Jimmy Durante's Ballsack
kiwifarms.net
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- May 21, 2019
This is my primary reason for voting for the man. Everything else is just a happy accident.
Fuck Nate Bismuth.
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- Jun 18, 2018
Nate Silver is reiterating the meme that "Trump has no idea how to win elections. He only got lucky because Hillary was so bad, anyone would've beaten her" which fails to take into account just how in the tank the media-academia-tech complex was going hard against Trump in 2016, and that he still managed to overcome that. Hillary also wasn't *that* weak - she wasn't Roy Moore level, for instance. Or to use a left wing analogy, she wasn't like Martha Coakley (who lost in 2009 in Massachusetts to Scott Brown) or Lincoln Chafee. I'd even say she was at least more inspiring than John Kerry, arguably a stronger candidate overall than Kerry was. And maybe you could even argue she was better at getting monied interests behind her than Obama was.
There are people who voted for Hillary who are now with Trump partly because compared to Biden, Hillary at the very least could string sentences together and would be her 'own person' more than a total puppet. And Trump has outperformed the expectations of some relative to 2016 by not being literally Hitler.
Democrats want to believe that "as long as we run anyone who isn't Hillary, we'll beat Trump. The 2016 loss was a fluke. Even a demented child groper will be guaranteed to outperform Hillary!" because their emotional well being is dependent on the idea that Trump is an aberration and Trumpism will be gone inevitably.
There are people who voted for Hillary who are now with Trump partly because compared to Biden, Hillary at the very least could string sentences together and would be her 'own person' more than a total puppet. And Trump has outperformed the expectations of some relative to 2016 by not being literally Hitler.
Democrats want to believe that "as long as we run anyone who isn't Hillary, we'll beat Trump. The 2016 loss was a fluke. Even a demented child groper will be guaranteed to outperform Hillary!" because their emotional well being is dependent on the idea that Trump is an aberration and Trumpism will be gone inevitably.
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- Aug 11, 2020
He only turned states red that haven't voted Republican in 30 years due to the dumbass Republican picks before him. What an idiot with no general election instincts.
Shave your head Nate and shut your mouth. You have a more pathetic hairline than Carl Brutananadilewski.
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- Sep 21, 2019
Good thing that the Lincoln Project idiots convinced him it was competitive, causing him to sink 6 mil in ad buy...
Because TRUST POLLS
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- Jun 28, 2020
Gallup poll for those who want to see it,
Link / Archive
Interestingly, Biden leads Trump 49% to 44% when it comes to presidential quality but Trump leads Biden 49% to 46% when it comes to issues. The former's margin would probably be higher if not for the first debate.
I told people that the Vice President debate was more important than what people realized. Both Trump and Biden are at an age where they could plausibly die while in office. Trump is obviously healthier than Biden, but as a man in his mid-seventies, he is counting his life by the days, not the years. Biden on the other hand most likely has dementia - at the very least clear sign of cognitive decline - and has had brain surgery before. He is not fit to be President and that is something even his supporters have to grapple with. Pence so thoroughly destroyed Kamala Harris that she will remain hidden even further than Biden is until the end of the election so she doesn't embarrass herself again until she becomes president. Even with the media's attempt to bury the issue with the forced and cringe-worthy Fly meme, the damage has been done. Undecided voters who watched the debate for information on how the Trump and Biden administration will conduct themselves will find themselves agreeing more with Pence than with Harris. I've come around to the idea that Trump might get a few voters out of this simply because Harris is that repulsive. Biden will definitely bleed a small portion of potential voters. With how hard Pence hit Harris on fracking, that might tip Pennsylvania to Trump's favor.
Worth noting that Baris is doing a Pennsylvania statewide poll in response to the recent pro-Biden trending polls and the massive amount of donations he received. The only tidbit he dropped was that it was a very male sample and he would not be shocked if it was 52/48 or 51/49 (women/men), which would favor Trump. He also revealed that Trump had a tiny lead in Pennsylvania - at 0.6%. We'll see if that holds, especially since he had trouble getting to the North Central part of Pennsylvania in the Rust Belt poll (an area that overwhelmingly supports Trump). Said poll also includes the fracking question and you can bet most who support it will be voting for Trump.
lol. Might have been a good thing that the second debate got cancelled.
Worth noting that in the 2018 Senate Race, women voted 53% compared to men at 47% (archive). That means if anything, Trafalgar is oversampling women. On the flipside, they oversampled the senior and middle age demographic while undersampling the 25-34 and 35-44 age demographic but it's also possible that Baris's speculation that middle aged people - the best demographic for Trump - comes out in higher numbers than usual.Accidentally posted this in the Joe Biden thread whoops. Copying it here.
New Trafalgar Poll of AZ:
View attachment 1651356
Arizona October Presidential Poll
www.thetrafalgargroup.org
Is this a blue wave?
Some interesting points.
It's 8 points in favor of women, which may even make it more pro-Biden than it should be. But who knows what the gender breakdown will look like on election day.
The 35-44 age group is less represented than the 25-34 age group by about a percent. Maybe that will be true, but it doesn't feel exactly right to me. Haven't looked into AZ stats, though, so maybe this is normal and expected for AZ.
I think Trump +4 is too high to expect for a state trending blue, but it still gives me a cold comfort because along with Maricopa increasing registration to R+5, there's a good chance Trump performs high enough to where Biden can't steal the state. Hopefully Trump makes multiple trips to Arizona before the election - he was planning to go to Yuma and Flagstaff before he got the news he was affected with COVID-19.
Speaking of, Trump is hitting Sanford, Florida this Monday. Not two weeks in and he's going back to rallies. Frankly, he should stick to Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, and Minnesota - states where he has the best shot of winning with multiple trips to Pennsylvania and Arizona. Especially Pennsylvania since that state will almost certainly decide the election.
To be fair, I don't think this was intentionally planned. They would have gotten caught intentionally infecting Trump and that would have lead to a Trump victory for sure while keeping the Senate and possibly flipping the House. But Pelosi definitely had time to think of something like this during the time Trump was healing from COVID-19.
That said, very interesting that Trump has approved of a COVID relief package. Question is, how does it get it through the House and Senate since that would require a legislation?
Also great call on Trump to finally start reminding people that yes, if Biden wins, you're getting The Wicked Witch of Commiefornia and all the baggage that comes with it. He needs to keep hammering on that until Election Day and he might win over most of the few undecided voters left.
Jarolleon
kiwifarms.net
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- Mar 23, 2019
You're stuck with the world you have, not the world you want, & must act within it. It's not like Trump can instantly destroy the entire white guilt industry and cause the US white population to go full 1488 (or whatever your preferred ideology is), the best he can do is stay in power long enough to goad the left into utter hysterics in the hope that they'll fuck up and cause a mass redpilling event, while slowly replacing the most egregious partisan hacks in the accessible parts of government with sane people.
What's next, Vindman orchestrated the impeachment because he was mad that some pretty lady in Trump's circle rejected his advances and decided to start a shitstorm to get revenge?
To be fair, Nate Plastic could be implying that Trump got his hands on some of the same drugs they're using to keep Biden from having literal dementia episodes on national TV.
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- Apr 16, 2019
Nor primary election instincts. He was worse in the primaries in 2016 than the general. Just completely missed on Trump and Bernie.
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- Feb 3, 2013
Polls were pretty accurate in 2018. I doubt Texas goes for Biden, but if it does by some strange happenstance, Trump is in big trouble.
EDIT: Whoops, put mail fraud text in this window by mistake
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- Apr 20, 2018
The issue I have with Nate Plastic is that he acts as a smug pundit that pretends to be better than other pundits because he throws some data around. Aggregating polls is only useful in telling you what polls can measure, and there is a clear left bias in polling, with a small but consistent percentage in every poll is enough to tip the scales. Basically if the input data is biased, there's only so much fiddling and adjusting you can do to try to fix it and make the prediction more accurate.
Also the polls only tell you about the population polled. I believe Rasmussen polls likely voters instead of all adults for this reason. It's harder to reach white blue collar workers than it is to reach college educated white voters.
Also the polls only tell you about the population polled. I believe Rasmussen polls likely voters instead of all adults for this reason. It's harder to reach white blue collar workers than it is to reach college educated white voters.
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