2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Hating a candidate is never a viable strategy alone. It certainly didn't stop Bush from being re-elected. Republicans/conservatives tend not to be complacent voters. Democrats rely on too many groups known to get complacent unless a candidate really enthuses them, and even then, they will still often lose.
I can say the same thing about 2016. By harping on Trump, people might have felt alienated by whatever the hell the media said about him, which they could relate to themselves. Hillary certainly did help in that regard.

This one is old, but take a look back at Harry Truman. If civil right extensions and dropping nukes didn't stop that guy in 48, and the start to another shitty war did in 52, Trump is fine so long as he continues his every day rally goal.
 
Hating a candidate is never a viable strategy alone. It certainly didn't stop Bush from being re-elected. Republicans/conservatives tend not to be complacent voters. Democrats rely on too many groups known to get complacent unless a candidate really enthuses them, and even then, they will still often lose.
That is true, I even discuss it. The only reason I think it should not be underestimated is that Trump hate seems much more significant than any other president, but then again that could be a vocal minority and me not being alive or politically active enough to pay attention to the other elections. Furthermore, 2020 is a year of weird shit happening so that is why I also consider a Biden possibility for victory.

But Trump does have some signs pointing to a victory:

- Good economy that goes under him (even the polls from most sources show a universal agreement that Trump is good for the economy)
- Good Foreign Policy as he did not get any of us to war and has seen healthy diplomatic relationships with other countries like North Korea along with many Middle Eastern countries
- Opponent reliant on not being the other guy and not having much charisma (Biden actually would've not been a competitor if he lost South Carolina in the Primaries.)
- Trump having high charisma
- There are also no major third party campaigns that would split Trump's base in fact there are more that would split the Democrat base (mainly Kanye, and the libertarians/green party).
 
Somebody please refute my misgivings about the polls being manipulated to favor Biden, preferably with a reliable, unbiased source. I know they are to some degree, and I know Trump's base is motivated, but this whole "Trump is actually ahead" thing sounds like a massive cope, and everyone saying it right now will have egg on their faces if Biden wins.

This was where it first clicked in my head what people mean by oversampling dems to artificially dial dem lead up and down.

Basically it seems like no one actually makes up numbers, yet its still easy to get the exact point lead you want.

https://tw.tinf.io/RaheemKassam/status/1312751334446313474

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Hating a candidate is never a viable strategy alone. It certainly didn't stop Bush from being re-elected. Republicans/conservatives tend not to be complacent voters. Democrats rely on too many groups known to get complacent unless a candidate really enthuses them, and even then, they will still often lose.

Trump has beyond a shadow of a doubt has had an outstanding week and continues to be on the upswing after the Chris Wallace Debate Shitshow and getting the Rona. And yet RealClearPolitics claims Biden's numbers have only increased. Call it a cope but it leads me to conclude that there's major inaccuracies in the polling.

They're not taking into account voter apathy for Biden whereas Republicans voters are absolutely committed to voting for Trump. They're not wondering how many people are closeted Trump voters because they simply don't want some unhinged leftist screaming at them in the parking lot or trying to humiliate them on social media. And I firmly believe Trump has made major inroads in appealing to both Hispanic and Black Voters.
The last re-election of a Republican was 2004. Bush Derangement Syndrome didn't really take off until he was a lame duck and things started going tits up. Things were going relatively well for Dubya up until his second term, and 9/11 was still fresh in everyone's mind.

Now Trump is presiding over a pandemic, riots, and unemployment at the end of his first term. Those things may or may not actually be his fault, but the narrative that they are his fault is already established, and that has consequences.

I understand Biden/Harris have all the genuine excitement of air-flavored oatmeal. But TDS is an adequate substitute. A lot of Trump voters chose him because they loathed Hilldawg more than actually liking him.

It just really annoys me when people act like this election is Trump's for the taking.
 
This was where it first clicked in my head what people mean by oversampling dems to artificially dial dem lead up and down.

Basically it seems like no one actually makes up numbers, yet its still easy to get the exact point lead you want.

https://tw.tinf.io/RaheemKassam/status/1312751334446313474

View attachment 1659323
Speaking of making up numbers out of thin air, here's Nate Pewter.
Screenshot_2020-10-13-13-04-46_kindlephoto-532756533.png

How the fuck do you quantify an infidelity scandal? His so called "model" is basically just a Rube Goldberg machine that spits out whatever is Nate's personal opinion.
 
Somebody please refute my misgivings about the polls being manipulated to favor Biden, preferably with a reliable, unbiased source. I know they are to some degree, and I know Trump's base is motivated, but this whole "Trump is actually ahead" thing sounds like a massive cope, and everyone saying it right now will have egg on their faces if Biden wins.
It really is a cope. While the polls are manipulated even when you account for and take out the obvious bullshit. A completely non-partisan/unfucked poll still shows Biden up 3.

Trump had being an unknown quantity on his side. Now we know. Plus most people arent willing to just let the left burn shit down so theyll give in to the temper tantrum.

Also the bernie left despite all their whining folded completely and either abandoned talking politics altogether or are in it for biden. Almost no real "bernie or bust"

Meanwhile the alt-right, whats remaining of that group is abandoning trump because he was even more Jewish than expected.

Also over 10 million old people died which means 10 million less GOP votes hes basically fucked all around.

And now its 3 weeks out and Covid hysteria is keeping trump from being able to fully embrace the one thing he had going for him his rallies.

Also social media didnt get the memo about censoring in time. Most silicon valley people believed in that 2000s era "once people are giving a voice they reject conservative values like censorship or religion" so they didnt clamp down hell they had no need to back when McCain and Romney ran.

Look at reddit, despite being anti-trump they were more ambivalent about clinton and the left. And were still pissed at censorship to the point that people went on the donald just to get a different point of view. Now the most right leaning subreddit above 100k subs is stupidpol.

And the worst part is that the GOP knew these tactics would be in place. They understood back in 2017 how massive the revenge would be, trump monitored the situation and now the DNC is making sure a corrupt prosecutor will be president in 2023.

Harris will get biblical on Trump and all his friends and associates. He wont get the pass the Bush admin did because he didnt play ball. She was willing to arrest children for weed possession despite everyone around her knowing it would be bad for her political career. What makes you think Trump won't get destroyed. The 20s arent going to be good for trump regardless but this election will determine if he gets the death penalty or a small sentence in minimum security until he dies. The GOP knows its the last stand, fuck it we all do. And everyone would rather give in instead. Because thats the real american way.

Back in 1964 people knew the civil rights act was essentially a coup of the American way of life, essentially superseded the constitution. And goldwater said as much and despite that the jew media and psychologists and everyone else called him crazy. His belief in communism leading to essentially a generation of Chris-chans was called insane by the same people teaching kids about manajerks and how you can be born the wrong gender. Despite everyone knowing he was right and that the left was full of shit and even though the hippies were starting to blow shit up and riot and burn down the south and race riots were becoming a weekly occurrence. People just gave into the tantrum again.

The American people truely deep down have always hated themselves and wanted to be hurt. Its the only way to explain why the last century they keep voting to fuck themselves over depsite knowing the options
 
I went past three different early voting stations today, all within a 1-2 mile radius, and all of them had long lines stretching way outside even though it was 10am when most people shouldn't be able to wait in line for hours. I hope this is not the beginning of the Blue Wave, but I fear it is. Just anecdotally, the early voter turnout seems definitely above average compared to what I saw in 2016

I am going to go past the same three stations on my way home to see if it's worth braving the wait today
 
The last re-election of a Republican was 2004. Bush Derangement Syndrome didn't really take off until he was a lame duck and things started going tits up. Things were going relatively well for Dubya up until his second term, and 9/11 was still fresh in everyone's mind.

Now Trump is presiding over a pandemic, riots, and unemployment at the end of his first term. Those things may or may not actually be his fault, but the narrative that they are his fault is already established, and that has consequences.

I understand Biden/Harris have all the genuine excitement of air-flavored oatmeal. But TDS is an adequate substitute. A lot of Trump voters chose him because they loathed Hilldawg more than actually liking him.

It just really annoys me when people act like this election is Trump's for the taking.
If Biden had come into this as a moderate, picked a nice moderate voice or even a liberal who makes some interesting points like Andrew Yang I would agree with you that Trump should be preparing for retirement in January. But he didn't he went so absurdly far left and bet all his chips that Coronavirus would be this massive culling machine. Also US unemployment rate is just at 8%.

If TDS was all you needed to defeat Trump then we'd be talking about President Clinton right now.

Nate Silver wants to tell me that Trump is losing Minnesota by 6 points. That Minnesota has become further left (Trump only lost that state to Hilldog by 2 points in 2016) after suffering with Burn Loot Murder.

Trust your own instincts, but I personally believe we're going to see Trump win concisely in November. Remember October is going to conclude with Trump acting very boisterous with the news of a very positive 3rd Quarter GDP Growth Rate.
 
I dunno about you, but I think it's pretty narrow to view history of the basis of the U.S. just on the whole "muh stolen land" and "muh white people" level, but whatever, you do you.

"trying to live within laws written by white men FOR white men"
"I see YOU using your power of protest and freedom of speech"

It's literally the very next sentence. These people have no self awareness.
 
I hope this is not the beginning of the Blue Wave, but I fear it is.
People who stand in line for hours on the first day of early voting even though there are three weeks of it are the kind of people who always vote anyway. You're not losing any additional votes you weren't already going to lose.
 
Somebody please refute my misgivings about the polls being manipulated to favor Biden, preferably with a reliable, unbiased source. I know they are to some degree, and I know Trump's base is motivated, but this whole "Trump is actually ahead" thing sounds like a massive cope, and everyone saying it right now will have egg on their faces if Biden wins.
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When you say "neck of the woods," do you mean a particular city? Because if so you could probably make a short list of most likely locations based on size and venue capabilities and then drive around.
It was hinted by some local source literally an hour or so before his appearance. I have someone there so I can report impressions later about the event, but it wasn't really possible to guess. Where we guessed it might be—a place similar to "The Villages"—was not actually where it ended up taking place. The whole thing was then locked off, reportedly, making it actually impossible to even go there and protest or whatever (in the same way people did, say, when Biden went to Gettysburg).

The event is taking place in Pembroke Pines, which isn't like some small town. Saying "Drive around Pembroke Pines until you find it" is like saying "drive around Eugene, Oregon" or "drive around Providence, Rhode Island." But it didn't matter in the end, because somebody leaked it to a single local source who then sort of reported it.

The reporting on the event beforehand, by the way, was atrocious. It was like every single local article was copy and pasted from a singular circulating memo. The media gets the memo, but the voters are left out in the cold. What a fucking joke of a campaign.
 
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