2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Quixotic Man said:
But apparently Joe is having an event in Durham, NC in about an hour. But the time and location are undisclosed, which is one hell of a way to campaign.
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IIRC Biden events keep adapting to the MAGA people disrupting them. They became invite-only, then the MAGA swarms were outside the fence/gates yelling chants over Biden, then the events became invite + hidden location/time, so MAGA swarms have a hard time forming.

Ruin said:
A friend of mine works in a memory care home and he says even with meds there is absolutely no way to know in advance if someone is going to have a good day or a bad day.
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Memantine + donepezil basically give people marginal improvements with their symptoms and a delay in progression, there isn't anything you could inject Biden with to give him complete lucidity, even temporarily, an unusually large memantine dose would just worsen its downsides. Biden's wierdness on-stage is basically as good as he's going to get.

I'm not sure how they can reliably prepare Biden for the debate, or what they did last time, other than having the moderator debate Trump instead of Biden.
 
Academic Agent did an anal lysis. It's a bit half-assed. He's taking the percentage Dem and GOP and the percent of registered Dems and Republicans who have voted and scaled them. The end result is that you get something very close to 2016. He then looks at the percentage of new, young, and black voters change compared to 2016.

Anyhow, it looks pretty good for the GOP, except in PA. It's going to be a really close election though. It'll be decided by a few states like PA,MI,WI. The notion the media have been pushing that Biden has a double-digit lead is wishful thinking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPvXRLNQsak
https://archive.vn/CPVbh

Part 1

Part 2
 
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Nate Silver looked at this, said its totally possible, and clicked publish.
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If you're having trouble, check the South, Colorado, NM, Maine, and Oregon.
 
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GuntPunt said:
Nate Silver looked at this, said its totally possible, and clicked publish.
View attachment 1671301
If you're having trouble, check the South, Colorado, NM, Maine, and Oregon.
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> checks the states that flipped blue
> noticed that Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Louisiana are filled with niggers

"Don't worry boys! The niggers will come to save the day!"

~ Nate Slimer
 
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Someone Awful said:
> checks the states that flipped blue
> noticed that Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Louisiana are filled with niggers

"Don't worry boys! The niggers will come to save the day!"

~ Nate Slimer
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One of the big reasons the polls are so far off is Democrats for some reason think the historically unprecedented black turnout for Obama is going to happen every election year despite the fact it never happened before 2008 either.
 
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Stoneheart said:
Trump is ahead by a good margin, Polling is just one metric and its not a very good one.
20% chance for Loomer sounds insane, but her district is full of Demographics Trump is winning over. She should overperform Trumps gains.

Florida is turning red, and will be till the dems change course. the Main Latino demographics in FL will not stop hating far left politics.
It will not lead to any dominance because the dems have been turning other states with more mexican Latinos blue.
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20% chance for Loomer to win sounds absolutely fucking retarded because it is. Trump could win the electoral college by 100 and the Republicans could win back control of the house in a historic upset and Loomer would still lose this district by double digits.

Her actual chance to win is within a rounding error of zero percent. She's such a non-threat that despite using her grifter e-fame to raise tons of money from nutjobs online the Democrats are completely ignoring her. If she was a real threat they'd be running ads about her being a crazy bitch and proudly racist. Instead they are just planning on coasting to victory while her campaign occupies the slow lane riding on four flat tires.

Also while I agree polling is flawed I'm curious how you came to these concrete conclusions that Trump is gaining with certain demographics without it? Like yeah polling is flawed but when polling has Loomer down by a 2-1 margin in a deep blue district that the incumbent won by over 25% last time it's not gonna fucking happen and anyone who says it is is just hopelessly lost in their own political jerk off fantasy that has no basis in reality. Trump winning Florida even by a landslide has no bearing on Loomer's fate.
 
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MrJokerRager said:
Mississippi going to Biden?
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This idiot really wants to predict a winner so badly. Let's review this...

So Biden gets: Washington, California, Illinois, Wisconsin, Virginia, (Not North, but) South Carolina, (Blue) Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, and the rest of what the electoral map legend shows, and he wins! Nice one, Joe!

Trump gets: Oregon (huh?), New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, all of Maine, and what's expected, but he loses because some of the South suddenly flipped back to the 1960s.

Tbh, this isn't his worst one. I at least expected Blue Texas and Montana, but thankfully's he sane enough to not pull out a Red California and New York. Red Oregon though... Yeah, this guy has lost it.
 
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Ruin said:
One of the big reasons the polls are so far off is Democrats for some reason think the historically unprecedented black turnout for Obama is going to happen every election year despite the fact it never happened before 2008 either.
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Furthermore, Obama was a one-of-a-kind candidate. The appeal of the first black man becoming president is something that will never be repeated. Not even a candidate that is Hispanic/Asian or a black woman will be able to repeat that enthusiasm just on the excitement of getting a president who does not have white melanin, at least not without being an exciting candidate otherwise.

So many states would flip to Biden before Mississippi and Louisiana. If Silver is honestly thinking blacks will overperform what they did under Obama in 2008 when Biden is having to fight to get black votes and Harris is the most despised Vice Presidential candidate in history, then that's borderline racist. I cannot envision a scenario where Trump wins the Hispanic vote (which the map shown would imply) and somehow loses the election.
 
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John McAfee said:
I think masks are here to stay until May or June of next year, 100% see lockdowns lifted immediate for non risk people to reboot the economy.
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I think the lockdowns will end across the board no matter who wins because the economy can't handle the "New Normal" long term. At most, I could see state restrictions and mask laws for the remainder of winter in certain blue states if Trump wins but then it'll be gone by April or early May at the absolute latest.

Super-Chevy454 said:
Speaking of weather, some wonder on Twitter if the rain in China along with a little help of the CCP to blow the Three Gorges Dam will be use as a false flag to take off the heat from the Biden crime family?
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I doubt it. The Dems need the CCP to stay in power and have a strong economy.

Destroying the Three Gorges Dam would leave the CCP imperially perma-fucked. Especially after the major economic damage caused by COVID-19 and the floods this summer.

GuntPunt said:
Nate Silver looked at this, said its totally possible, and clicked publish.
View attachment 1671301
If you're having trouble, check the South, Colorado, NM, Maine, and Oregon.
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Between a red Oregon and the fact that Mississippi, South Carolina, and Louisiana are blue makes me think this guy is high on PCP or something.

If Georgia and North Carolina were in blue instead of South Carolina, Louisiana, and goddamn Mississippi, I could buy it more. Georgia and North Carolina are both red states but I could at least follow the logic since Georgia was close in 2018 thanks to all the hype over the "Blue Wall" and the Democrats want to turn North Carolina into another Virginia.
 
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Someone Awful said:
Furthermore, Obama was a one-of-a-kind candidate. The appeal of the first black man becoming president is something that will never be repeated. Not even a candidate that is Hispanic/Asian or a black woman will be able to repeat that enthusiasm just on the excitement of getting a president who does not have white melanin, at least not without being an exciting candidate otherwise.

So many states would flip to Biden before Mississippi and Louisiana. If Silver is honestly thinking blacks will overperform what they did under Obama in 2008 when Biden is having to fight to get black votes and Harris is the most despised Vice Presidential candidate in history, then that's borderline racist. I cannot envision a scenario where Trump wins the Hispanic vote (which the map shown would imply) and somehow loses the election.
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Hilariously, even with max black vote, NC wouldn't flip. Also, Trump would somehow win Michigan and Pennsylvania with Detroit and Philly? What drugs were Nate on? He should stop because they're affecting his hairline.

Also somehow, Trump wins fucking Maine at large, New Mexico, Colorado, but not Nevada, Wisconsin, or Florida? The fuck?
 
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Meat Target said:
Speaking as a member of Trump's base who cast his ballot yesterday: if we're gonna be literal fair-weather supporters and let a few hours of bodily discomfort at most dissuade us from an action that would keep psychopaths out of power, then we deserve to lose.
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heyitsmike said:
If you're in such a rural area that it takes you a half hour to get to your voting location, without a doubt you aren't the type to let a little bad weather ruin your day, especially this day.
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There's his base, then there's his "sure why not" supporters, who won't risk skidding out to cast their one vote. MAGA is not a death cult, Twitter screeds aside.

More realistically, the problem is that weather like blizzards and storms slow everything down. Traffic is slower, drive times are longer. Everyone going in/out of the polling place is twice as slow, because they're dealing with umbrellas, ponchos, jackets, and social distancing.

The people who planned to get to the polls by 9:00 AM get there at 10:00. The ones who would get there at 10:00 get there at 11:00. The ones who were going to be in at 2:00 then pick up the kids at 3:00 decide to go afterwards instead, and don't get there until 4:30, when they see a line wrapping around the building.

Then it's a race to the judge to ask for an extension, which will naturally be granted, but there's always some cutoff, because there has to be. And the extensions conveniently happen more in blue counties than in red ones.

I'm not saying Trump loses if it rains because people don't want their red hats to get wet. But enthusiasm doesn't overcome physical realities, and the MAGA boosters need their less enthusiastic friends to show up too. Weather always causes some vote reduction on Election Day, and Trump is uniquely vulnerable to it this year.
 
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I don't understand these models Nate is putting out. He has Trump winning a majority of the white and Hispanic vote yet losing both the EC and popular vote?

Fucking huh? Where are these millions of extra Biden voters coming from?
 
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Harvey Danger said:
the MAGA boosters need their less enthusiastic friends to show up too.
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Those less enthusiastic friends aren't the ones in Trump's base, therefore they aren't the ones being discussed. Those less enthusiastic friends are voting early. If they were the type to want to wait until actual election day so the Democrats don't know how many votes they need, they wouldn't be the less enthusiastic friends.
Harvey Danger said:
Weather always causes some vote reduction on Election Day, and Trump is uniquely vulnerable to it this year.
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I think the phrase "come hell or high water" applies here. Like I said, the less enthusiastic voters don't feel a need to wait to vote. They will have already voted come election day. Everyone left will not be stopped from voting by anything less than the second coming. In which case everything is moot anyways.
 
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