2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[Gustav Schuchardt]

The only thing going against him is that he is a textbook boomer.

Speaking of boomers, I'm listening to Gorka who is 75 today. He has a hot mike so you can hear him talking to his staff on Youtube during ad breaks. Not a good idea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKbK1SANWng

He had Bernie Kerik on who claimed there was CP on the hard drive which is why he and Giuliani drove to Delaware to hand of a copy of the drive. Delaware PD then passed it back to the FBI because there was an ongoing investigation. Is Hunter going to get v& for CP? I'm guessing not if his dad wins, but if he loses then yes.

 

[Salubrious]

They actually released a lot of scandals from September onwards with the claim that Trump had insulted veterans, then his taxes, and now claiming Barrett is bad for whatever reason. These didn't particularly stick, but they tried several approaches.

That's actually even sadder.

They had nothing, so they just threw everything at the wall and hope it stuck.

Ironically, the same thing they are claiming Trump is doing now with the Hunter tapes.

Projection is wonderful.

 

[Michael Jacks0n]

I'm not convinced Obama was that unappealing to the unwoke, at least not on account of his race. It's fucking Salon, but it's 12 years old and an interesting read. Search for "nigger". https://archive.md/PooUp

Hmmmmm, this kind of wording leads me to believe one of the other U.S. presidents may have been secretly a black man in whiteface.

 

[Pointless Pedant]

That's actually even sadder.

They had nothing, so they just threw everything at the wall and hope it stuck.

Ironically, the same thing they are claiming Trump is doing now with the Hunter tapes.

Projection is wonderful.

I think all this stuff was released to try to cover up the Biden scandal which they knew was coming. People have been talking about it since at least last year but it only really hit the news when the laptop story came, so they were hoping that other stories would cover it up, in the same way as Trump getting ill knocked a load of other stories out of the headlines when that happened.

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Hmmmmm, this kind of wording leads me to believe one of the other U.S. presidents may have been secretly a black man in whiteface.

People made jokes about Bill Clinton.

 

[StarkRavingMad]

They also tried that fucking Melania tape, remember that shit?

That got shelved immediately right after Trump got COVID, lmao.

Even without the COVID diagnosis, the Melania tapes would have gone nowhere.

Melania comes across as MORE LIKABLE after hearing those tapes, if you ask me. She's more badass than I previously thought, lol.

 

[Salubrious]

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Hmmmmm, this kind of wording leads me to believe one of the other U.S. presidents may have been secretly a black man in whiteface.

Reminds me of this.

 

[StarkRavingMad]

Reminds me of this.

View attachment 1680047

Goddamn, I miss George Carlin ...

 

[Pointless Pedant]

Reminds me of this.

View attachment 1680047

Back when left wing comedians were funny.

 

[Salubrious]

I posted this in the Hunter thread, but it needs to be here as well.

Just a reminder that Nate Silver is saying that the MOST COMMON result of this election is Biden winning something like 420-118. Despite the fact Obama got 365 against McCain and 332 against Romney, but Biden is going to get SIXTY more Electoral votes than Obama ever did.

 

[heyitsmike]

I posted this in the Hunter thread, but it needs to be here as well.

View attachment 1680079

Just a reminder that Nate Silver is saying that the MOST COMMON result of this election is Biden winning something like 420-118. Despite the fact Obama got 365 against McCain and 332 against Romney, but Biden is going to get SIXTY more Electoral votes than Obama ever did.

View attachment 1680083

So how did that prediction work out, Nate?

 

[Salubrious]

View attachment 1680135
So how did that prediction work out, Nate?

Nate Silver is predicting the biggest blowout win since 1988, where George H.W. Bush beat Dukakis 426-111. Just to show how weird the world was then, H.W. won CALIFORNIA!

Granted it would be easier for a Democrat to win a blowout now with California and New York locked up, but they would have to win basically everything including Texas and Florida and Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Again, Obama's best result was 365 electoral votes.

 

[Harvey Danger]

Give me the rainbows, but I think JUST ENOUGH people have turned on the Democrats this year that I think Trump edges the popular vote. I think it'll be less than a million. I know the Nate Bronzes of the world say that anecdotes aren't data, which is technically true, but they aren't nothing either. Look at all the thousands attending rallies and parades for Trump, at a time where simply saying "Trump is not all bad" makes you a white supremacist. I think Trump wins the popular vote something like 67 million to 66.5 million or something like that.

(let's see, have I done it this week yet... nope. So!)

Weekly reminder that Hilary Clinton won California by 4.3 million votes, while Trump won the rest of the country by 1.4 million votes. She did that off the back of an unexpected 1 million extra voter surge in CA, which none of the polls predicted during the campaigns.

If you want a path for Trump to win the popular vote, you could start with assuming that 1 million surge doesn't happen again. You'd still need to pick up 1.9 million from somewhere. Maybe Trump gets out the WWC more than he did in 2016, or peels off more Hispanics, etc. Then he'd need to get out every single voter from 2016 plus a 3% increase in that base to break even.

How likely is Trump to get a 3% increase? Well, Obama's popular vote went down 5% when he won re-election, Bush II's went up 23%, Clinton's went up 5%, Reagan's went up 24%. Which means fuck if I know, it's 2020, nobody knows.

So if you're looking to bet on Trump winning the popular vote, or get emotionally invested in the possibility, you've got to find some justification for that 3% increase somewhere.

 

[737 MAX Stan Account]

Odds that tonight ends up being the beginning of the end for the Harris campaign?

 

[Salubrious]

(let's see, have I done it this week yet... nope. So!)

Weekly reminder that Hilary Clinton won California by 4.3 million votes, while Trump won the rest of the country by 1.4 million votes. She did that off the back of an unexpected 1 million extra voter surge in CA, which none of the polls predicted during the campaigns.

If you want a path for Trump to win the popular vote, you could start with assuming that 1 million surge doesn't happen again. You'd still need to pick up 1.9 million from somewhere. Maybe Trump gets out the WWC more than he did in 2016, or peels off more Hispanics, etc. Then he'd need to get out every single voter from 2016 plus a 3% increase in that base to break even.

How likely is Trump to get a 3% increase? Well, Obama's popular vote went down 5% when he won re-election, Bush II's went up 23%, Clinton's went up 5%, Reagan's went up 24%. Which means fuck if I know, it's 2020, nobody knows.

So if you're looking to bet on Trump winning the popular vote, or get emotionally invested in the possibility, you've got to find some justification for that 3% increase somewhere.

Just a quick counterargument, Trump wouldn't need to pick up 1.9 million; he would need 950K to flip.

Everyone that goes from D to R count's as "two votes". Not only is it a vote that the D doesn't get, it's a vote the R gets.

So the 2016 election was 65,853,514 to 62,984,928.

Take away 1 million from California, and it's 64,853,514 to 62,984,928,

Get 1 million to flip from D to R and it's 63,853,514 to 63,984,928 in Trump's favor.


Also again, it's just a gut feeling. I have no evidence that the shift will be that dramatic. It could be wishful thinking. I just see so much open support for Trump despite everyone that supports him being accused of white supremacy, meanwhile any Democrat rally can barely break 100 people.

 

[CrippleThreat]

Odds that tonight ends up being the beginning of the end for the Harris campaign?

We need to start looking down the line of the succession; it's bad for Pelosi and most of Biden's cabinet (AG Cuomo anyone?).

 

[Doctor of Autism]

I posted this in the Hunter thread, but it needs to be here as well.

View attachment 1680079

Just a reminder that Nate Silver is saying that the MOST COMMON result of this election is Biden winning something like 420-118. Despite the fact Obama got 365 against McCain and 332 against Romney, but Biden is going to get SIXTY more Electoral votes than Obama ever did.

View attachment 1680083

Nate is delusion if he thinks Biden can win with more than 400 electoral votes. If Biden wins, it would be a close race, not some blowout since Biden lacks charisma and is corrupt. If Biden was 2008-era Obama and Trump was everything the media says he is, that's believable but Nate Plastic is not living in the real world.

 

[Salubrious]

Nate is delusion if he thinks Biden can win with more than 400 electoral votes. If Biden wins, it would be a close race, not some blowout since Biden lacks charisma and is corrupt. If Biden was 2008-era Obama and Trump was everything the media says he is, that's believable but Nate Plastic is not living in the real world.

I may be repeating myself, but the size of the win he's predicting is the weirdest part of all this.

If Silver said Biden would win 290-248 and had a 58% chance of winning, I would disagree with him, but at least those sound plausible.

Silver thinking Biden has an 87% chance of winning, is most likely to get 400 electoral votes, and is 50-50 in Georgia, and not once questioning any of this should be a firable offense. Nobody can possibly think Biden is that big a favorite, and this man's literal job is to be evaluating this.

 

[RockPaper]

Silver thinking Biden has an 87% chance of winning, is most likely to get 400 electoral votes, and is 50-50 in Georgia, and not once questioning any of this should be a firable offense. Nobody can possibly think Biden is that big a favorite, and this man's literal job is to be evaluating this.

This kind of thing agrees with what Baris says about him: He's just a poll-watcher and aggregator. He doesn't "analyze" anything, really.

If a ridiculous poll says Biden is up 12, he just includes it as if it corresponds to something real.

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

Archive of the Gorka stream as an .aac audio file

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKbK1SANWng
https://archive.vn/wip/HeKQk

Trump also released an uncut version of the CBS interview. This is kind of funny actually - she tries to steamroll him by asking him about only the issues she thinks makes him look bad, he steamrolls her by talking about the Hunter Biden laptop. At some point Pence comes in and Trump says 'Do you think she'd ask Joe these sorts of questions?'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kv2l49JFo0k
https://archive.vn/wip/pwVzM

He's got a point about the DJIA and black unemployment, at least up to the China virus hit and the Democrats demanded a lockdown.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
https://archive.vn/wip/nhmhF


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000031
https://archive.vn/wip/z51ul

 

[Salubrious]

This kind of thing agrees with what Baris says about him: He's just a poll-watcher and aggregator. He doesn't "analyze" anything, really.

If a ridiculous poll says Biden is up 12, he just includes it as if it corresponds to something real.

Not only that, but Nate Silver completely dismisses Trafalgar group because "they're Republican biased." So he openly admits that he doesn't count anything that "sides Republican", then doesn't question why Biden is leading everything by 12 points.