2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

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Kelly denies that he's in the photo, Enough time before election to prove or disprove this. It took under a week for yearbook guy, who said that the photos were kept in a locked room, to show up for VA.
 
2020Suicide said:
Mexicans are idiots theyll vote dem because their job isnt their life (rape is)

That whole job = life shit works on tectonics but if you noticed that whole "X is anti-abortion, pro-church, they'll definitely vote GOP" shit didnt work on the blacks or asians so i highly doubt it will work on the spics.
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If trends are any indications, Trump is winning more of the black and Hispanic votes. Trends show that Trump is getting double digit black support. Some polls like the one Baris did in Pennsylvania and Arizona has black support at over 15% and he has been predicting for years that Trump would get more black support compared to 2016 and most of that gain will come from black men. Closing the margin in black support by double digits is not outside of the realm of possibility. Also it's erroneous to assume that Hispanics are a monolithic block that will vote Democratic for gibs. Cubans have swung back to the Republicans and Venezuelans are expected to vote for Trump by at least 70%. Those Hispanics are a big reason why Trump remains competitive in Florida. He's also doing better among Mexicans in Arizona as Baris's battleground polls show him winning 39.9% of the votes (before undecides) as of a few days ago.

Trump is improving among blacks and Hispanics because of his populist working class message which still resonates with his audience. Winning double digit black support, 40% Hispanic support, and getting re-election lays down the groundwork for the GOP to expand their nonwhite base and if they keep going with the working class message, they can put to stop the "Demographic Is Destiny" bullshit the far left likes to peddle.
Truthboi said:
Biden's keys to victory are honestly five things at this point if he can win:

1. A massive Trump fuck up that will piss everyone off (Least likely unless something really big happens)

2. People who want the first black female vice president (Also really least likely unless enough progressives, karens, and woketards are in droves)

3. People really pissed at Trump to get him out quickly (Sorta likely)

4. Early Voting saves Joe Biden (Sorta Likely)

5. Voter fraud (In the middle since it didn't help Hillary but it could be ramped up this year)

As for a Trump win, that could put many states in play like the ones mentioned as well as Minnesota and New Hampshire if possible. Especially if the Republicans embrace the working class image Trump is focusing on instead of honorable losers and conservative dick measuring contests that the Republican party was before Trump.
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I'll agree that the first two are very unlikely. Most people do not want Harris to be president even if they are okay with Biden and as for the first one, not even the Access Hollywood tape brought his initial campaign down. The DNC would need something far worse on him, like a tape where he said "nigger" or a scandal that rivals the corruption of the top DNC leaders. Right now, hammering Trump on the coronavirus is a far more effective tactic since that actually did cost him a lot of support.

The other three are possible, though for the fourth one, most of it are going to be people who are already afraid to get the coronavirus anyway and I don't want to read too much into it. I don't see turnout going beyond 150 million, especially with how low the youth turnout will be (outside Arizona where Proposition 207 intends to legalize marijuana but there's a good chance a non-negligible portion may check the box for Jo Jorgensen over Biden anyway). Frankly, I'm the most worried about voter fraud due to Pennsylvania and I'm hoping once Barrett gets on the Supreme Court, she will side with Trump when she had to deal with this.

I agree with your analysis regarding a possible Trump win. In the case of New Hampshire, a Trump victory could embolden GOP effort into New England states. Notably, none of them (even though they're all solid blue aside from New Hampshire and maybe Maine) count ballots after Election Day, leaving less opportunities for fraud to take place. If New England in general keeps trending red (outside Massachusetts), we could see them become competitive, if not safe states by the end of 2030s.
 
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Trump looked like he was done in 2016. The thing that saved him is that voters started to break for him en masse at the last week to cause upsets in 3 core Democratic states and deliver him a decisive victory. I don't know if that rush towards Trump was caused by rallies, people finally admiting their Trump vote all along, Comey, or other factors, and we might never know. But it happened.

From my analysis of more reputable pollsters like Trafalger, Susquehanna, Barris and co., the tightening is happening again. Trafalger had Trump up by one in MI, then James and Trump up by 2 the following week. In Wisconsin, Susquehanna says its dead even and Trafalger says its a 1 point race, closer than the 6 point Biden lead Baris polled a few weeks ago. In Minnesota, Cahaly says its tied and now in the Senate race we are getting reports that its virtually tied. In Pennsylvania, Baris said it was a 2 point Biden lead 2 weeks ago, before Oilegeddon.

By the metrics visible, the crew that got it right are seeing the same racing back that gave Trump the win four years ago. The only difference is that its starting earlier. I hope this isn't a short term spike, but I doubt it will be due to the debate.

Biden's goal during the debate was to blunt any spike that would kill him like Hillary. However, instead he performed terribly and finally said the quiet part out loud: banning fossil fuels to save the environment. 62 million people watched it live supposedly by Neilson ratings.

This may cause the spike to accelerate, especially in more resource gathering related states. In the case of Minnesota, Iron Range workers are pissed that environmental groups are prevening a new mine from opening. Pennsylvania, obviously fracking. Wisconsin and Michigan have more manufacturing based aspects but with caveats. Wisconsin is more farming based with the Aimless western area specializing in fracking. Michigan has a sizable mining sector, but they are affected less due to a non-sizable portion of their economy is resource collection. Still, these people know when their asses are on the line and Trump is reportedly already running ads from debate clips. We shall see in later reputable polling if this is the case.

While we wait for that, Biden pissed off people in other states as well, notably the Sun Belt. Texas and Oklahoma aren't the only oil states he targeted. New Mexico and Colorado both rely on oil. For NM, its 1/3 of their economy and they would be destroyed without it. It spooked so many people that endorsements for the doomed Repub Senate challenger are rolling in starting with the Albuquerque Journal. Oil is still important in Colorado, but less critical than NM. Will Trump flip these states now? NM maybe on a good night, and Colorado might be close enough to save Gardner's ass. At worst, it'll help down ballot a bit.

The race has changed a lot in 48 hours with the laptop, the debate, and the visible late surge. The Biden team is getting more desperate, especially after last night. They forced Bon Jovi out of his champane hippie mansion to celebrate Hillary's win in Philly on the final day in 2016. Now, they are campaigning for Joe a week out.

This is going to be another photo finish. I don't know how its gonna end, but it sure has been a hell of a ride.
 
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Truthboi said:
Biden's keys to victory are honestly five things at this point if he can win:

1. A massive Trump fuck up that will piss everyone off (Least likely unless something really big happens)

2. People who want the first black female vice president (Also really least likely unless enough progressives, karens, and woketards are in droves)

3. People really pissed at Trump to get him out quickly (Sorta likely)

4. Early Voting saves Joe Biden (Sorta Likely)

5. Voter fraud (In the middle since it didn't help Hillary but it could be ramped up this year)

As for a Trump win, that could put many states in play like the ones mentioned as well as Minnesota and New Hampshire if possible. Especially if the Republicans embrace the working class image Trump is focusing on instead of honorable losers and conservative dick measuring contests that the Republican party was before Trump.
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My internet drunk gut feeling is that they're pulling back on the fraud this year. Don't ask me why I think it, because I don't know. Maybe they just can't afford to be caught, but these guys seem to be really bad at long term planning. I guess all of the old guard trained soviet commies died out.
Early voting is more red than it should be, so drop that from the list. The rest I agree with.
Edit:
5t3n0g0ph3r said:
Oh, I voted earlier today.
The line was surprisingly long.
It took me nearly two hours just to get my ballot.
Anyways, we'll see how things go now.
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Same. I saw the longest lines I've ever seen (went on Wednesday) and I usually vote on election day. I was the only one not wearing a mask though. This is in a DEEP red area.
 
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GuntPunt said:
Trump looked like he was done in 2016. The thing that saved him is that voters started to break for him en masse at the last week to cause upsets in 3 core Democratic states and deliver him a decisive victory. I don't know if that rush towards Trump was caused by rallies, people finally admiting their Trump vote all along, Comey, or other factors, and we might never know. But it happened.

From my analysis of more reputable pollsters like Trafalger, Susquehanna, Barris and co., the tightening is happening again. Trafalger had Trump up by one in MI, then James and Trump up by 2 the following week. In Wisconsin, Susquehanna says its dead even and Trafalger says its a 1 point race, closer than the 6 point Biden lead Baris polled a few weeks ago. In Minnesota, Cahaly says its tied and now in the Senate race we are getting reports that its virtually tied. In Pennsylvania, Baris said it was a 2 point Biden lead 2 weeks ago, before Oilegeddon.

By the metrics visible, the crew that got it right are seeing the same racing back that gave Trump the win four years ago. The only difference is that its starting earlier. I hope this isn't a short term spike, but I doubt it will be due to the debate.

Biden's goal during the debate was to blunt any spike that would kill him like Hillary. However, instead he performed terribly and finally said the quiet part out loud: banning fossil fuels to save the environment. 62 million people watched it live supposedly by Neilson ratings.

This may cause the spike to accelerate, especially in more resource gathering related states. In the case of Minnesota, Iron Range workers are pissed that environmental groups are prevening a new mine from opening. Pennsylvania, obviously fracking. Wisconsin and Michigan have more manufacturing based aspects but with caveats. Wisconsin is more farming based with the Aimless western area specializing in fracking. Michigan has a sizable mining sector, but they are affected less due to a non-sizable portion of their economy is resource collection. Still, these people know when their asses are on the line and Trump is reportedly already running ads from debate clips. We shall see in later reputable polling if this is the case.

While we wait for that, Biden pissed off people in other states as well, notably the Sun Belt. Texas and Oklahoma aren't the only oil states he targeted. New Mexico and Colorado both rely on oil. For NM, its 1/3 of their economy and they would be destroyed without it. It spooked so many people that endorsements for the doomed Repub Senate challenger are rolling in starting with the Albuquerque Journal. Oil is still important in Colorado, but less critical than NM. Will Trump flip these states now? NM maybe on a good night, and Colorado might be close enough to save Gardner's ass. At worst, it'll help down ballot a bit.

The race has changed a lot in 48 hours with the laptop, the debate, and the visible late surge. The Biden team is getting more desperate, especially after last night. They forced Bon Jovi out of his champane hippie mansion to celebrate Hillary's win in Philly on the final day in 2016. Now, they are campaigning for Joe a week out.

This is going to be another photo finish. I don't know how its gonna end, but it sure has been a hell of a ride.
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This is an interesting analysis and if things as you say are accurate, then election day could get quite interesting.

Puff said:
My internet drunk gut feeling is that they're pulling back on the fraud this year. Don't ask me why I think it, because I don't know. Maybe they just can't afford to be caught, but these guys seem to be really bad at long term planning. I guess all of the old guard trained soviet commies died out.
Early voting is more red than it should be, so drop that from the list. The rest I agree with.
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Well if the voter fraud is pulled back, it's likely because Trump is bringing a lot of attention to possible voter fraud, but I think something will be tried on election day.
 
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Puff said:
Same. I saw the longest lines I've ever seen (went on Wednesday) and I usually vote on election day. I was the only one not wearing a mask though. This is in a DEEP red area.
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Were some of the mask showing political leanings (MAGA or Biden-Harris? Because either the Democrats in your area are just bumrushing to early vote or something's really up.
 
Truthboi said:
This is an interesting analysis and if things as you say are accurate, then election day could get quite interesting.
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Thanks, but I have to leave credit. It really isn't my analysis, I just typed it up. Its really a combination of Baris livestreams and Barnes Twitter polls and explanations. Most of my insights are pretty much that at this point. I looked beyond polling, beyond the shouting and saw the peices come together. It also speaks volumes to their work and analysis that I can confide in them without questioning it due to its basis in rational trends (or mindlessly following it like a tard, because MAGA).

However, it does come with one caveat: we are in uncharted territory right now. Due to the lockdowns, we don't know if historical trends and indicators hold in this point. All of them point to Trump, but if they don't reinforce anything, we can't use them for analysis. There are some signs that they are holding, with Barnes explanations, but still, we have never had an election like this.
 
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GuntPunt said:
Trump looked like he was done in 2016. The thing that saved him is that voters started to break for him en masse at the last week to cause upsets in 3 core Democratic states and deliver him a decisive victory. I don't know if that rush towards Trump was caused by rallies, people finally admiting their Trump vote all along, Comey, or other factors, and we might never know. But it happened.

From my analysis of more reputable pollsters like Trafalger, Susquehanna, Barris and co., the tightening is happening again. Trafalger had Trump up by one in MI, then James and Trump up by 2 the following week. In Wisconsin, Susquehanna says its dead even and Trafalger says its a 1 point race, closer than the 6 point Biden lead Baris polled a few weeks ago. In Minnesota, Cahaly says its tied and now in the Senate race we are getting reports that its virtually tied. In Pennsylvania, Baris said it was a 2 point Biden lead 2 weeks ago, before Oilegeddon.

By the metrics visible, the crew that got it right are seeing the same racing back that gave Trump the win four years ago. The only difference is that its starting earlier. I hope this isn't a short term spike, but I doubt it will be due to the debate.

Biden's goal during the debate was to blunt any spike that would kill him like Hillary. However, instead he performed terribly and finally said the quiet part out loud: banning fossil fuels to save the environment. 62 million people watched it live supposedly by Neilson ratings.

This may cause the spike to accelerate, especially in more resource gathering related states. In the case of Minnesota, Iron Range workers are pissed that environmental groups are prevening a new mine from opening. Pennsylvania, obviously fracking. Wisconsin and Michigan have more manufacturing based aspects but with caveats. Wisconsin is more farming based with the Aimless western area specializing in fracking. Michigan has a sizable mining sector, but they are affected less due to a non-sizable portion of their economy is resource collection. Still, these people know when their asses are on the line and Trump is reportedly already running ads from debate clips. We shall see in later reputable polling if this is the case.

While we wait for that, Biden pissed off people in other states as well, notably the Sun Belt. Texas and Oklahoma aren't the only oil states he targeted. New Mexico and Colorado both rely on oil. For NM, its 1/3 of their economy and they would be destroyed without it. It spooked so many people that endorsements for the doomed Repub Senate challenger are rolling in starting with the Albuquerque Journal. Oil is still important in Colorado, but less critical than NM. Will Trump flip these states now? NM maybe on a good night, and Colorado might be close enough to save Gardner's ass. At worst, it'll help down ballot a bit.

The race has changed a lot in 48 hours with the laptop, the debate, and the visible late surge. The Biden team is getting more desperate, especially after last night. They forced Bon Jovi out of his champane hippie mansion to celebrate Hillary's win in Philly on the final day in 2016. Now, they are campaigning for Joe a week out.

This is going to be another photo finish. I don't know how its gonna end, but it sure has been a hell of a ride.
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Here is the Michigan Trump+1.8 (rounding up to Trump+2) poll you're referring to. The poll actually came a few days after the mid-October one that showed up on Realclearpolitics. Oddly enough, the site has not bothered to get around to this poll. James is even further ahead of Peters, at 2.2. All of this was before the first debate. Personally I'm skeptical that Trump is that far ahead in Michigan - I think he's in a dead heat with Biden as of right now and it's possible Trafalgar just reached a different group - but it lines with up him being competitive in that state.

Cahaly needs to poll Minnesota again. In August, Trump and Biden were virtually tied, but so much has changed in the past couple of months and Trump getting COVID-19 likely bumped Biden up a few points there like Baris argued happened in Pennsylvania. That said, Trump getting COVID-19 was the floor and barring a horrible revelation that exceeds Access Hollywood in controversy, he can only go up from here.

It's actually getting people to endorse the Republican Senator challenger in New Mexico? If so, holy moley. Not that I think the person will win, but I have no doubt New Mexico will trend a closer race (but still one that Biden wins) than before. If oil is important in Colorado too, then that also sets the stage for it and New Mexico being competitive in 2024 and 2028 if Trump wins and Republicans keep populism as its platform. Regardless, this was a serious mistake for Biden. He could have written off his Abe Lincoln comment, the corruption, and maybe even being called out in his miserable failure of a crime bill in 1994, but there is no way he can walk back his "ban oil!" comment. Trump could get a double digit win in Texas again just for that and growing Hispanic support.

Speaking of pollsters worth looking into, worth noting that Rasmussen Reports had Clinton at a two point lead nationally the day before the election (archive) and turned out to be right on the money. Compare that to 2020. Last week had Biden five points ahead and Baris pointed out in one of his videos that he was approaching the danger zone, which is being four points ahead or less (which according to him makes a Trump win possible). He is now only leading by three points (archive) and this was before he got eviscerated on the debate Thursday. Next Wednesday will be the last opportunity we get results from Rasmussen and it will be one way to tell whenever or not undecided voters are breaking for Trump or not.

Barring something shocking or Pennsylvanian Republicans somehow getting a 5-4 majority to overturn the three day ballot counting extension before Election Day, I don't see anything else changing the race. Regardless of the outcome, the outliers will once again be closer to the actual results than most media/university pollsters.
 
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Just saw this shit pop up on my FB timeline:

(Archive)

Basically automatic voter registration when you get/renew your driver's license means more registered voters, 2/3rds of those newly registered to vote are 'minorities'; therefore #BlueGeorgia confirmed Drumpf is finished!
(assuming they actually vote lol)
 
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Fanatical Pragmatist said:
Just saw this shit pop up on my FB timeline:

(Archive)

Basically automatic voter registration when you get/renew your driver's license means more registered voters, 2/3rds of those newly registered to vote are 'minorities'; therefore #BlueGeorgia confirmed Drumpf is finished!
(assuming they actually vote lol)
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Pretty sure North Carolina has had the same thing for a long time and it has stayed red, so :optimistic: .
 
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