2020 U.S. Presidential Election - Took place November 3, 2020. Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden assumed office January 20, 2021.

[heyitsmike]

Exactly. If I coded software that counted 25 hours in the day, I wouldn't jump on Twitter and tell NASA they got the earth's rotation wrong. I'd be suspicious of my software.

Doing it the first way means you think you are the Wisest Man On Earth, and that's almost never the case.

I said this about Nate almost a year ago now. He refuses to even consider sanity checking his results because it doesn't occur to him that either his input or output data could be wrong.

I remember in elementary school in math they used to teach you to sanity check your result when using a calculator or computer. You might have misplaced a decimal point. Or pushed plus instead of minus. There might even be a problem with the computer. But whatever school Nate Silver went to must not have taught that.
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Presumably he thinks she should have better odds. How in the hell could anyone sane look at Kamala, then look at her number and say, 'This doesn't make sense. This number is too low.'

It's the same with all the Dem candidates really. None of this shit passes the eye test. How can anyone look at a poll showing Biden beating Trump by double digits and think, 'This makes sense. He is that much stronger of a candidate.'

Numbers Boy needs to learn numbers aren't everything.

 

[Clockwork_PurBle]

They stopped being funny after 2013 or so when they started using actual celebrities instead of impersonators. Seeing Snoop Dogg, Key & Peele, and Weird Al in their videos was just plain cringe. The magic of their 2010-2011 videos was how they had the same two guys impersonating most of the celebrities and historical figures. I couldn't imagine any of the episodes being watchable now.

IMO they really started shitting the bed around 2016 (or a little before) but then they came back after hiatus with an increased production quality and it reverted back to the same 2 or 3 guys impersonating with an occasional guest appearance. When I went back into it with a "forgiving" attitude I found it was more of a positive experience. Some of their more recent ones were the best they had done in a long while IMO.

 

[The Pink Panther]

Even the faggot cheerleader propagandists at ERB can't muster up enthusiasm for Joe. (Though I like how they gave Biden twice Trump's time for verses.)

After they made a similarly stilted rap for 2016 showing their bias for Hillary, they got so assmad about the election results they cancelled their series for a time.

Anybody wanna bet on the odds they 41% after 45 gets another term?

Where's Lincoln?

 

[EmuWarsVeteran]

Hoohoooooo lord. How the fuck can Seattle be this pozzed?! If the dems still win after this bullshit, the city is just straight up doomed.

 

[Blubbles]

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/1001/attachments/original/1603307463/RSTP_MI_'20_Oct_Press_Report.pdf

Here is the Michigan Trump+1.8 (rounding up to Trump+2) poll you're referring to. The poll actually came a few days after the mid-October one that showed up on Realclearpolitics. Oddly enough, the site has not bothered to get around to this poll. James is even further ahead of Peters, at 2.2. All of this was before the first debate. Personally I'm skeptical that Trump is that far ahead in Michigan - I think he's in a dead heat with Biden as of right now and it's possible Trafalgar just reached a different group - but it lines with up him being competitive in that state.

Cahaly needs to poll Minnesota again. In August, Trump and Biden were virtually tied, but so much has changed in the past couple of months and Trump getting COVID-19 likely bumped Biden up a few points there like Baris argued happened in Pennsylvania. That said, Trump getting COVID-19 was the floor and barring a horrible revelation that exceeds Access Hollywood in controversy, he can only go up from here.

It's actually getting people to endorse the Republican Senator challenger in New Mexico? If so, holy moley. Not that I think the person will win, but I have no doubt New Mexico will trend a closer race (but still one that Biden wins) than before. If oil is important in Colorado too, then that also sets the stage for it and New Mexico being competitive in 2024 and 2028 if Trump wins and Republicans keep populism as its platform. Regardless, this was a serious mistake for Biden. He could have written off his Abe Lincoln comment, the corruption, and maybe even being called out in his miserable failure of a crime bill in 1994, but there is no way he can walk back his "ban oil!" comment. Trump could get a double digit win in Texas again just for that and growing Hispanic support.

Speaking of pollsters worth looking into, worth noting that Rasmussen Reports had Clinton at a two point lead nationally the day before the election (archive) and turned out to be right on the money. Compare that to 2020. Last week had Biden five points ahead and Baris pointed out in one of his videos that he was approaching the danger zone, which is being four points ahead or less (which according to him makes a Trump win possible). He is now only leading by three points (archive) and this was before he got eviscerated on the debate Thursday. Next Wednesday will be the last opportunity we get results from Rasmussen and it will be one way to tell whenever or not undecided voters are breaking for Trump or not.

Barring something shocking or Pennsylvanian Republicans somehow getting a 5-4 majority to overturn the three day ballot counting extension before Election Day, I don't see anything else changing the race. Regardless of the outcome, the outliers will once again be closer to the actual results than most media/university pollsters.

Mainly in response to the Michigan segment. I think Michigan will go hard red.

First Michigan is not a California or New York Blue state, its Union Blue and socially conservative. It has one of the highest gun ownership rates in the country (I think its higher than Texas now) and does not like China because as they see it they steal their jobs.

Also right now Gary Peters is running a really close race with Jones for Senate (Jones is the GOP candidate) There was also the open Michigan Petition that garnered over 500k signatures last I checked, It only need 340K. The Governor Recall petition only got derailed because of an embezzlement scheme the founder of the movement get caught up in. Also Michigan has had its economy rocked by Whitmers draconian Shut downs. Not to mention there was an attempted Ku in Michigan, even though the guys involved seemed more like left leaning fringe elements it does demonstrate that there is serious anger at the current Gubernatorial administration in Michigan.

In michigan Local news is actually talking about the Email scandals, the NRA is running tons of gun vote ads, and there have been multiple high profile unlock Michigan rallies (remember Michigan brought guns to their rallies before it was popular).

The other thing too is that Biden decided to pass on Whitmer for VP. Now none of this bodes well for Whitmer who is not up for election but will be in two years, but with a man who has many allegations against him for having ties to Chinese business, is very Anti Second Amendment, and wants to implement a hard 3 month nationwide lockdown, do you really think people in Michigan will go and vote for that.

I admit I could be wrong, but I don't think the Trump campaign is skipping Michigan because they think its a lost cause, they may think quiet the opposite.

 

[Michael Jacks0n]

Where's Lincoln?

Didn't you get the memo? He's the most racist president of all time!

 

[Cold Root Beer]

My theory is they tuned the model to favor the result they wanted, then Nate publicly criticizes any people providing polls that would push it in the opposite direction. Eventually, the polls coincidentally start showing what Nate's benefactors want to see, and the feedback loop of skewed polls plus skewed model creates bad predictions.

Nate calls this process "un-skewing", of course, because the Orwellian leftist handbook recommends you label yourself with the opposite of what you actually are.




Exactly. If I coded software that counted 25 hours in the day, I wouldn't jump on Twitter and tell NASA they got the earth's rotation wrong. I'd be suspicious of my software.

Doing it the first way means you think you are the Wisest Man On Earth, and that's almost never the case.

Even without the influence of personal polling, Nate's statistics and modelling ability sucks massive ass. His NBA predictions were way, way off all season, and he (presumably) didn't have any politics influencing his modelling.

 

[PepsiVanilla]

No political logos. That's illegal in polling places in my state anyway (and more others, right?)
Early voting is in the courthouse where masks are officially required, but it's the kind of town that even the regular staff weren't wearing masks though they were required, just the election staff. People just scared of getting kicked out/trying to avoid a hassle?

That's how I felt at least. I voted early in-person not that long ago, and in the line outside the building I was the ONLY one without a mask (this is a just about 50/50 purple area) but right past the front door they had a table with masks "please take one" and I just didn't want to risk any kind of retaliation or possibly having my ballot tampered with in any way by some outraged masktard worker.

 

[Bass]

I'll be honest, fellas. I don't even want to imagine a Biden presidency. The U.S. economy would end up in the gutter so fast, and I'm pretty sure other world leaders could easily walk all over ol' Joe. Trump may not be perfect, but he embodies a sort of optimism that is severely lacking these days (as witnessed in the debate) and it would be a shame for that spark to be replaced by Mr. Doom and Gloom.

Either way, I'm preparing myself for the worst.

I'll save you the trouble so you don't have to imagine a Biden presidency, you are basically describing the Carter administration.

Shit economy and every tinpot shithole walking all over us. Hell when he kills the oil industry, we can even have the fuel shortages again.

 

[Xarpho]

I remember in elementary school in math they used to teach you to sanity check your result when using a calculator or computer. You might have misplaced a decimal point. Or pushed plus instead of minus. There might even be a problem with the computer. But whatever school Nate Silver went to must not have taught that.
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Presumably he thinks she should have better odds. How in the hell could anyone sane look at Kamala, then look at her number and say, 'This doesn't make sense. This number is too low.'

It's the same with all the Dem candidates really. None of this shit passes the eye test. How can anyone look at a poll showing Biden beating Trump by double digits and think, 'This makes sense. He is that much stronger of a candidate.'

Numbers Boy needs to learn numbers aren't everything.

When did the polls get so fucked? I was reading about Obama's 2008 election (specifically his choice for VP) last night and despite how insanely popular Obama was, with normies and the media sucking him off for months leading up to the election (especially compared to a stodgy neo-con like McCain), the polls had him for most of the race with single-digit leads.

 

[Gapernaper Rifle]

If you look at the Democratic equivalents to the boat/car rallies for trump it paints a pretty sad picture for Biden's campaign.

The Republicans are very enthusiastic for Trump, while the Dems are not enthusiastic at all about Joe. Most of the people who are going to vote for Biden are habitual Dems and TDS patients. Especially after the debates, many of the moderates will go for Trump.

 

[InsolentGaylord]

Apparently one of the Hunter Biden tapes got leaked. I saw frames of it. Looks like the guy.

 

[737 MAX Stan Account]

Shaming poor people to own Drumpf. Gimme all the rainbows you want, but I don't see a Biden win happening, especially after walking back on fracking.

 

[King Daddy Telomerase]

When did the polls get so fucked?

Through 2006-2010 as landlines were being phased out. I remember 2010 was the worst with landline polls far overestimating Republicans. It's much harder to get accurate data now with only cell phones where far fewer people respond now and especially online with paying people peanuts to do them, both of which will significantly skew Democrat.

 

[Oats12345]

Honestly I don't live in Florida. But I have a feeling it will be going to Trump.

My mom came back from Florida recently and she said that theirs alot of pro Trump stuff there.

And even Ben Shapiro who's at Florida for some reason. Was talking about the same thing my mom was that Trump has alot of support there, especially among Hispanics.

I was thinking today would it be interesting if Trump won New Hampshire, New Mexico and Minnesota or Trump doesn't win those states. But something more interesting happens. Instead Biden wins them but by a small margin. And it opens them up to become battleground States. Kind like a oppiste Virginia was a red state than became battleground state and finally solid blue.

Would it be intresting if this election turns three or four (counting maybe Colorado, not sure on that one Honestly) blue states into battleground states.

 

[Salubrious]

Even Beanie Man is noticing these polls are bullshit.

 

[Harvey Danger]

Through 2006-2010 as landlines were being phased out. I remember 2010 was the worst with landline polls far overestimating Republicans. It's much harder to get accurate data now with only cell phones where far fewer people respond now and especially online with paying people peanuts to do them, both of which will significantly skew Democrat.

It's the landline problem, plus who was answering the remaining lines got skewed, plus who would respond at all got skewed. Any one of these would cause issues, but having 3+ variables changing simultaneously made it very hard to compensate in real time.

For a recent example, Baris has said the problem with online polls was that they used to skew conservative, until Covid lockdowns started, then they suddenly started skewing liberal. That's how fast the underlying variables can change. If you're paying attention you can catch that and compensate somewhat. But if you just start the cycle with "online polls were conservative in 2018" and stay with that assumption until the 2020 results "prove" the change happened, then you're in for some bad results.

 

[Ledian]

Shaming poor people to own Drumpf. Gimme all the rainbows you want, but I don't see a Biden win happening, especially after walking back on fracking.

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File this under another reason why New Yorkers hate smug City shitheads. We all leave the City alone but they never leave all of us alone.

 

[Michael Jacks0n]

File this under another reason why New Yorkers hate smug City shitheads. We all leave the City alone but they never leave all of us alone.

Imagine the shitstorm if a conservative Twitter account posted a photo of a rundown Section 8 crackhouse apartment with Biden signs on it, and with the same captions about winning. They'd be banned for hate speech.

 

[verissimus]

You know, I'm sure you could probably find moments where Trump has had brain-farts, but this was pure cringe : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjNOxrzU-As