Trump is doing three rallies in Pennsylvania tomorrow,
- Allentown (Lehigh County)
- Lititz (Lancaster County)
- Martinsburg (Blair County)
Worth noting that Lehigh Clinton went to Clinton by a five points margin. Given that voter registration trends has been favoring Republicans, especially in the months leading up to this election, it's possible that Trump is look at this as a potential swing county. The argument made is that voter registrations towards Republicans are just people switching registration to reflect their current alignment, but I still think that there is room to juice out potential support in Lehigh, Bucks, Monroe, Lackawanna, Centre, and maybe Chester County. Not to mention during this same time period, registrations for Republicans accelerated compared to even 2016 when Trump won the state.
Speaking of,
there is this analysis Nick Field made of the final voter registration trends (
archive). Democrats are only 700,853 above Republicans, a less than 8% margin. It's incredible how much gains the Republicans made. If the Pennsylvanian GOP are successful at repealing the 4-4 Supreme Court decision once Barrett joins before Election Day, I'd say the odds are in Trump's favor to win.
Also Trump is doing a couple of rallies in Arizona on Wednesday, in Bullhead City at Mojave County and Goodyear at Maricopa County. Maricopa County is the closest thing to a bellwether county. I don't blame him for making a couple of stops here
just in case. If he does not show up in Florida this week, that means he knows he locked up the state already.