Baris just dropped this:
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Alleviates da doom, but let's see what he has to say when he speaks with Barnes at 2. I expect
@GuntPunt and
@Someone Awful to post the link.
And don't forget, Trump has 2 more rallies there today, and who knows how many more for the remainder of the race.
The poll's internals.
Baris just briefly glossed over it. I personally don't buy the internals - no way does Biden have a near 40 point lead on Independents and still lose the state - and I do think the 2.9% win in Pennsylvania for Trump is too good to be true, even as someone who thinks he will win the state (voter fraud aside). I do see, however, what the swing is supposed to represent. Biden was leading prior to the third debate. Now that he made the mistake of promising to ban the oil industry, which is crucial to the Appalachian Pennsylvanian economy, a lot of undecided voters are breaking for Trump. I'm not sure if I buy a five point swing, but something like three is definitely plausible. Given that Pennsylvania is a competitive state, Trump may already have a slight lead. The question now is if Trump can overcome the voting fraud margin to accommodate for cheating.
Listening to Baris and Barnes right now, and Barnes is saying that Nate Antimony is acting fraudulent with his polls and egging on other pollsters to fraud along just to create the narrative that if Trump wins, either he won within a crazy margin of error or he stole the election again. So the folks who rightfully say that the doctored polls will tighten, expect to see Biden reach high single digits in the last foot of the race. I heard that Nate took Trafalgar out of his data just because it had Trump looking good.
Shit's getting crazy.
In the event of a Trump win, that will be the narrative fraudsters like Nate Slimer pushes out. Expect "Russia Russia Russia" to be plastered all over the headlines for the next few years, especially if he does not get the popular vote again. Biden's already in the high single digits. I doubt he will drop much below a seven point lead aggregate in RealClearPolitics. Nate and his cronies will never owe up to how horribly skewed their polls are and the only way to deal with them is to take away their powers and throw them out of business.
At this rate, if the Dems were smart, they would just count their losses and let the election ride its course for Biden to lose. This will hurt the Democrat party for years to come if they don't do a significant course correction for the next two years. The time is NOW to start memory-holing this Biden campaign altogether if you ask me.
But the Dems are too corrupt and evil to be smart at this point. I hate using such strong terms to describe political adversaries, but the shit they are guilty of this year alone does, in fact, make them evil.
They aren't giving up on this election. Things may look good for Trump now, but voter fraud will still be an issue in states like Pennsylvania and Nevada. Pennsylvania is Trump's best state in the Rust Belt and he needs to run up the margin in that state to avoid the state being stolen, at least initially.
It's a good thing that Barrett is in the Supreme Court now so she can deal with this issue should it come up. If Pennsylvania is the deciding state and the DNC try to pull off fraud, I think Barrett will rule for Trump in a 5-4 decision. But the point is, we should not have to worry about this coming up in the first place.
I don't think over 300 is unrealistic. Trump got 304 in 2016. And as I've been saying for months, what is going to flip from red to blue? I don't think anything will. In fact, I would give Trump Minnesota, putting him at 314.
I actually think the gap will be a little bit more, because I'm a little more optimistic. I think Trump eeks out the popular vote, which would basically give Trump Nevada, Maine, and New Hampshire. Again, I'm being super optimistic though.
What you're describing is the best case scenario (except that I don't think Trump can get Maine Congressional District 1 since the anti-war vote all reside in northern Maine, far more favorable towards Trump and more opportunities to squeeze out votes for an off-chance at-large Maine flip). That would neat him 328 electoral votes, a rather comfortable victory. But I'm not sure he would win the popular vote in that scenario.
Even if Pennsylvanian GOPs can overturn the absurd three day after Election Day ballot counting and no signatures on absentee ballots rule before Election Day and Trump beats the margin of fraud in Nevada by 2% and wins the state, the Democrats
will be cheating to hell in back in safe states like New York, New Jersey, and California. I wouldn't be surprised to see millions of fake ballots somehow seep through the system and Biden winning the popular vote. None of the potential flips have a massive population.
This is why in a potential second term that Trump needs to push for reforming election laws to ban counting absentee ballots after Election Day and require all ballots to have a signature. I don't think Republicans could afford leaving this issue unchecked when Democrats will be spending the next four years perfecting their voting fraud scheme for a likely weaker candidate.
That said, I do agree that we could see Trump win over 300 electoral votes, but it's a shame that the coronavirus hurt his approval rating so badly. Had he not fumbled on the optics, he could have as Harvey Danger said, focused on flipping states and the House instead of fighting a contentious election and keeping the Senate.