Expect the third Pennsylvania poll to be up tonight and for Arizona to also get an update. You can check it out here,
The Inside The Numbers™ Election 2020 Public Polling Project conducted by Big Data Poll, funded solely by viewers, the first ever such project.
www.peoplespunditdaily.com
- Chester County has remained competitive despite voter registration trends favoring Democrats (although the home stretch did have Republicans make a slight gain)
- Trump is losing senior at a greater rate in Pennsylvania than in Florida
- Donald Trump's gain among black - particularly young black men - has not evaporated a week before the election, which usually happens with Republicans. He'll get 15-20%, the raw is at 17% right now.
- 21.9% of 18-29 black plans to support Trump, while 18.8% of 30-44 blacks (just as good for working class 30-39), 12.1% of 45-64, and seniors look like traditionally low Republican support (single digits)
- Trump will get killed in Hennenpin County
- Do not listen to the voter file that is online, especially not in states without party preference references
- There is significant crossover in Minnesota - do not read too much into early voting in Minnesota
- Biden is doing worse in urban areas but a little better in some of the rural areas
- Minnesota is very difficult to poll
- The Ben Shapiro "decency and religious" people that did not vote for Trump might be coming home after all and it could be due to Amy Barrett's nomination and confirmation
- Trump is widening his lead among Independents in Pennsylvania
- The race is competitive
- Initially, 60% of people in the Rust Belt were familiar with the Biden scandals stories, but it has rose considerably in a few days
- Pennsylvania and Arizona will be updated first
- Baris believes that Nate Silver is a narrative maker that wants every pollsters to fall in line due to his ridiculous comment that Trump can only win due to significant polling error or stealing the election
- Nate removed Trafalgar Group due to being too pro-Trump, believes he will remove any dissident polls
- Trump is leading with independents in Wisconsin
- Some things are different from 2016, but there are also similar trends in 2016
- People have grown more uncomfortable with Kamala Harris in his Pennsylvania poll than before
- Trump going to Pennsylvania three times yesterday forced Biden to take the lid off and head to Chester County where he was all but ignored
- Trump has made gains in Philadelphia County. The two wards that supported him are going for him at even larger margins but it has larger counties. Corruption from Philadelphia will remains an issue
- Trump is getting killed in Delaware and Montgomery County
- Baris will oversampled Chester County just to make sure what he's seeing is true with him being competitive
- Undecided is going down and it's very much favoring Trump
- Crossover vote will be much bigger for Trump than Biden
- Biden's support is all but maxed out for Trump
- Thinks that the state might be heading in Trump's directions
- Believes it is possible that with Barrett in the court, the judges can strike down the unconstitutional three day ballot counting and absentee without postmarks requirement before Election Day
- He believes Trump will hit 40% in Allegheny County based on leaners, possibly more
- Biden can do better in Lackawanna, but Monroe could go to Trump as he is leading in the poll
- Luzerne County might go to Trump by a twenty-five point margin
- Berks County is giving mixed signals, suggests Biden could close the gap if not flip but it's a "wait and see. Current polling has Trump at a twelve point lead
- The race has tightened, moving away from Biden