iRON-mAn
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Mar 12, 2019
Realistic issues with each of the six conservative justices:
Roberts: He's a liberal in disguise, he'll vote against.
So the other five:
Barrett: There is a legal case for her to recuse, its not strong but this would also be her first decision on the supreme court. There will be a -lot- of pressure on her to recuse, and I am not discounting the chance they'll go after her kids.
Gorsuch: After Roberts, the second most common to break from the conservatives. He's a massive proponent of Natural law, and his breaks always follow it, so he should be absolutely livid here. BUT he is not a guarantee, more of an 80%.
Kavanaugh & Alito: These two share a spot because both have skin in the game, unlikely to break but Kavanaugh is still untested and Alito's judicial philosophy could conflict on the fringes.
Thomas: Lol no, he's not breaking. Leaving aside the chance for revenge, he is staunchly conservative and his judicial philosophy would hate this.
Summary, the two justices to look at are Gorsuch and Barrett, with both Kavanaugh and Alito having some minor chance of breaking off. Minor though is not non-existent.
Again, with Barrett, nothing in her hearing leads me to believe she'll recuse herself, and they went after her kids then too. Most notably she's the appointment that Trump made closest to the election when he knew that mail in ballots might be an issue. She said that she didn't make any promises or guarantees and Trump said at a later point that he never asked her about it, that they just talked about whether she wanted the job. It seems like an intentional act on Trumps part, and something he was likely advised towards, not to be seen to be influencing Barrett so that this wouldn't be an issue. If it's an problem with recusing herself because she has an axe to grind against the democrats, then Thomas would have to recuse himself too. But she also repeated the fact that judges aren't republican or democrat, they're arbitrators of the law, as the reason that they wear black robes. Honestly at this point I'm more certain of Barrett than I am of Kavanaugh or Alito.
I don't necessarily disagree with the rest, but I agree with @There'll be another time 's point that this case is too important to the supremacy of the Supreme Court for most of the judges to think about breaking.