I agree that you and I don't need to do it.
Judges aren't typically computer people. Non computer people tend to believe that lots of computer stuff is magical. The prosecution will need to overcome Ethan Ralph's hacking defense in as close to plain English as possible. That and "it was reasonable for Fai Fai to change her mind after the fact, also you can't consent after the fact your honor" is their hurdle. It's not an especially big hurdle, but judges are people and are unpredictable
I think he did it, and very obviously. Making a judge buy weird computer shit they likely don't understand is another thing entirely
Juries can be unpredictable, but there's one thing about them that isn't: they love technical explanations from people with credentials. They call this "the CSI effect"—they practically expect forensic evidence now, or at least expert testimony. It's possible to prove Ethan leaked the tape with commonsense logic, because Kerr contemporaneously identified Ralph as the source of the message he opened, and that message contained a link to a video only Ralph had access to. That's sufficient proof prima facie of Ralph's identity as the person who released the video. But at least some jurors will want to see some matching of IP addresses to usernames, or something along those lines. If the prosecution does that, it should be the nail in the coffin for Ethan's "I was hacked" story, because he won't be able to rebut any of it.
And besides all that, people are repelled by the "I was hacked" defense. It's a cynical meme at this point. The public remembers people like Anthony Weiner, Steve Scully, Joy Reid, etc. IMO, Ethan might actually be better off not asserting this defense, because it will evoke eye rolls and hurt his credibility.
I'm more curious to know what all of this nonsense is going to cost him financially. A private attorney, court fees, restitution to the Vickers, a custody battle (which he'd obviously lose), other damages, the list just always seems to stack. What are we looking at here, like 6k or more? It makes me wonder if he's going to have to sell his Sentra to cover his losses.
The criminal stuff will probably cost him around $5,000 out the door (fines, restitution, attorney fees), assuming his attorney's fee only contemplates pleading him out. A civil case could be much more costly, because he would have to hire a defense attorney, and because the potential damages Faith might seek. Let's say Ethan gets rung up for some absurd amount (e.g., $1,000,000), the judge will probably remit it to a figure between $50k and $100k. And then child support, which could be around $500 a month...
So basically, this whole saga has the potential to bankrupt him.