He's going to be guilty of something, guarantee it.
Its less an issue of "guilty, less riots, not guilty, more riots" but more "What will he be found guilty on?
Prosecution adding back the extra charge of third degree murder, which will never stick, is giving antifa an excuse to riot. I believe he will be found guilty on the manslaughter charge (10 years max, sans the year hes already been in captivity).
Second degree unintentional murder is 40 years, I don't think that one will stick, but it may. Would he get the full 40 years if it did stick though? Looking at the judges past and how even tempered he seems, probably not.
Third degree murder I'm not even going to get into, but how I can see this going is "He got manslaughter and 10 years, this is because hes white, the system is broken and racist, bla bla bla. He totally intended to kill Floyd, he had it out to get him, this is an evil man, how is he walking".
Thats when there will be riots. Adding in Third degree murder is just going to add another unnecessary charge and the possibility that even if he is found guilty on 2 of the 3 current charges, the fact that he may get off on the max charge will have people on the left using that for copium to fuel their racist worldview for years. These people wanted death for him or life in prison, and anything less and they will riot.