I agree and disagree. You’re right in that GW caters towards a younger audience, which can be hard for some to admit. Many 40k fans started during 3rd or afterwards and it’s easy to forget how many of the complaints levied towards GW today were also levied back then. 3rd was a major change and it really simplified the rules when compared to 2Nd and Rogue Trader. Many back then felt like GW turned their backs on them for a younger audience. Personally I’ve come to terms with that so I’m not phased one bit. If that’s a good or bad thing is a matter of debate.
I disagree in regards to the whales. There are kid whales who spend a lot but there are also a lot of adults who pour tons of money into 40k. That’s why Forgeworld exists. Plus a lot of kids who got into 40K had a dad who played older editions too. That’s not always the case but it frequently is.
We're going through another 3rd Edition-style backlash once again. Especially since Warhammer 40K is shifting once more-from a parody/satire of fascism to an old-fashioned good vs. evil fantasy struggle.
I mean, back then, the Space Marines weren't exactly serious. They even made fun of the fact that the SMs could be complete fruit loops:
Then they went all serious in 3rd Edition, and now, they're shifting to a more clean fantasy setting where you have the good guys like the Ultramarines and their Primarch on the one hand, and the evil aliens and Chaos demons on the other. The way they describe the Ultramarines in Warhammer Adventures shows this:
"Sworn defenders of humanity, Space Marines are the ultimate warriors, graced with superhuman speed, strength, and stamina. Genetically-engineered to fight in the countless wars of the 41st Millennium, these towering giants have two hearts, three lungs, and blood that is immune to all known poisons. Organised into Chapters, the Emperor's chainsword-wielding champions are feared and respected throughout the galaxy. Bravest of all are the heroic Ultramarines. Clad in blue and white power-armour, they plunge into battle, risking all to protect the Imperium against the forces of Evil."
Warhammer Adventures is a series of stories about brave heroes battling monstrous enemies and winning great victories against impossible odds.
warhammeradventures.com
That's right, they're openly stating that the Space Marines are good and their enemies are evil. Instead of the 3rd Edition lore where the Space Marines and the Imperium are a necessary evil, or the older lore where they're a satire of fascism, the newer books they peddle to kids openly state that the Ultramarines are good, and the people they shoot at are evil.
Meanwhile, this is what one of the 40K lore authors had to say about the Space Marines and GW's penchant for lionizing them:
"To me the background to 40K was always intended to be ironic. The fact that the Space Marines were lauded as heroes within Games Workshop always amused me, because they're brutal, but they're also completely self-deceiving. The whole idea of the Emperor is that you don't know whether he's alive or dead. The whole Imperium might be running on superstition. There's no guarantee that the Emperor is anything other than a corpse with a residual mental ability to direct spacecraft. It's got some parallels with religious beliefs and principles, and I think a lot of that got missed and overwritten."
Rick Priestley, Warhammer 40K lore author and creator, December 2015 interview with Unplugged Games
For decades, Warhammer has been one of the most enduring forces in all of gaming. In an unprecedented in-depth interview, we spoke to its co-creator Rick Priestley about its origins, development an…
web.archive.org
So if anything, this isn't the first time 40K has made a massive lore-shift. It's just that the people who signed on during 3rd Edition are now realizing what the fans of the first and second edition felt when 3rd Edition was rolled out.
Dads getting their kids into the hobby-that could very well be the case for many newcomer audiences. But the fact of the matter remains: GW is no longer interested in appealing to the older crowd, and said crowd is angry for it. GW no longer cares if older fans walk away because of politics or because of lore inconsistencies and unbalanced gameplay. Combine that with their new approach to kids, their open contradiction of 40K lore, changing the story from a grimdark "everyone is evil" future to a "good vs. evil" standard fantasy series where the Imperium, for all its flaws, are the good guys, and the fact that the older fans are openly complaining that GW has ignored them, all points to GW wanting that younger generation of whales in their pockets while ignoring the old lore nuts and players who have been their loyal customers for decades.
And judging by GW's profit margins, their new strategy is working.
If you wanted to make the argument that GW is pandering to younger audiences, you should have pointed at the billion and a half videogames they licensed off to different studios these past 10 years or so. That's where the zoomer money is going. And even those never really turned into huge successes. Some of them were good games, possibly even great (Mechanicus, Space Marine), others were serviceable (Vemintide, post-fixes Space Hulk), many were shovelware (too many to list), and a few no one even heard about. But the most important thing is that none of them (except perhaps the Total Warhammers) made a big splash and it's unlikely they earned Games Workshop all that much money.
They have been trying to appeal to a broader crowd with their "young adult" stories, but I'll be shocked if any of these books sold more than 20 thousand copies. Either way, their problem is that they're saddled with two big IPs that just don't have mass market appeal in Current Year. The safe bet would be to try to retain their biggest cash cows (adults with disposable income) while the cultural winds change, but they tried to put the cart before the horse and I personally don't think it'll do them all that much good in the long run.
The big difference between the Fortnite whales he's talking about and the Warhammer whales is that Fortnite is free to play racks in a lot of money by gradually draining small purchases. 7 bucks here, 10 bucks there, occasionally those 50 bucks grandma gave you for your birthday. That spending falls through the cracks. Meanwhile, the basic starter set for 40k is 50 bucks (assembly required, although it's tool-less). Their recommended starter paint and tool set is 45 bucks. A single box of their shiny Intercessors is 60 bucks.
Fortnite kids can drop in and out and keep playing without having to commit to anything. That makes it easier to make purchases as well. 40k (and Fantasy/Sigmar) require you to commit to what you're doing. There's a bit up-front cost in both time and effort whenever you buy any models before you can actually use them for anything. Those are two completely separate audiences that don't overlap in their spending habits all that much.
The problem with that theory is that ever since 2017, GW's net income and revenue has been on the rise. Instead of sinking the proverbial ship and killing the golden goose, GW's new kid-friendly approach seems to have paid dividends for their shareholders:
Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW:LSE) financials, including income statements, growth rates, balance sheets and cash flow information.
markets.ft.com
For those with too little time to bother clicking on the link, in 2016, Games Workshop's annual revenue was 118.07m. It went on a steady rise, until by the end of 2020, it was 269.7m. Net income for 2016 was 13.5m, and that too rose as the years went by, to the point where by the end of 2020, it was 71.3m.
Which, for a company that's been alienating its older fans since the release of 8th Edition and the Primaris Marines, is bonkers. Their revenue streams should be going down, not up. Yet this kid-friendly approach that has been causing older fans to spit plasma ever since 8th Edition came out has led Games Workshop to reap larger profits year by year, instead of a decline.
There are only two explanations for this:
A) The older fans have Stockholm Syndrome and despite all their complaints about GW alienating them, they keep dumping more and more money into GW's products as the years go by.
or
B) The kid-friendly shit is working and more kids are joining the hobby and spending more and more money on GW products than the past fans have before 8th Edition came out.
So help me out here. I'm totally stumped as to how GW is making even more money while pissing on the older fans, as compared to back then when they were appeasing the old fans. The only explanation I have, outside of older fans having Stockholm Syndrome, is that the kiddies are dumping more and more money into GW's coffers, which means that their attempts at pleasing the kiddie whales have succeeded.