Late 2018 - late 2019: Oliver and Nyk are dating. [this has been confirmed over and over again in this thread]
October 2019: The
"Queer" video comes out.
I'm gonna throw a curveball at y'all but I speculate that he identified as nonbinary at this point (whether Nyk or anyone else knew abt this is debatable). I do not have any credible sources just a bit of suspect subtext so take this with a rock of salt.
My main point is that if he accessed transition through the NHS [which is likely due to how much he talks about waiting times in his manifesto] he would've had to apply for gender therapy and enter a waiting list, and since those are sometimes years long, this is probably the most recent he could possibly have entered the system for him to be able to get HRT at the time he did. There's also a chance he could've done this while dating Nyk but my point is, if he went through the NHS, this is the latest he could've possibly applied.
Also, in order to change your gender marker [which he flaunts ever so subtly in his coming out video] in the UK you need to present 2 years of proof that you're the gender you say you are so I don't think it's a totally insane idea that he would enter the system at this time (although yes you can get "proof" in other ways).
Also fucking watch the video and tell me that's not a closeted tranny, I dare you.
Jan 2020: Nyk uploads
"Cancelling" where he mentions that a prominent leftist figure raped him.
[The fact that this wasn't just sexual harassment but a full-on rape is later confirmed in the
"J.K. Rowling" video.]
He talks about this in a very nonchalant way, as if he already made peace with this fact, it's likely that this happened quite a while back. At this time Nyk and Oliver were still good friends, regularly interacting through twitter etc.
Feb 2020: Nyk uploads
"Shame" under which Oliver comments, revealing himself as "Chad" [this comment was later deleted]. This comment is hearted by Nyk, therefore it's very unlikely that the person who raped Nyk was Oliver.
After this Oliver has a mental breakdown, some speculate this is the moment his egg cracked but I am sceptical because of the aforementioned NHS waiting lists. I do think that it's possible that if he ID'd as nonbinary before this point, this was the moment where he went full-on tranny. This would also fit his
claim that he started writing the script to the coming out video around a year before it came out.
April 2020: Oliver uploads his
last video with a beard.
June 2020: Oliver uploads his
first video without a beard under the guise of "scaring off the nazis".
In reality it was probably because he recently finally accessed gender therapy and knew if he didn't shave no one would take him seriously as a tran. We can't know for sure when he shaved, so it's just as possible that he started therapy right after filming the video in early April (and spent some time coming up with ways of excusing his missing facial hair in the next vid) or right after the June one.
June - August 2020: Oliver uploads multiple videos at this time during which we can pretty clearly see his features change ever so slightly. Notice how in
"Logic" he still wears a tight-fitting shirt but after that he only wears big jackets to hide his skittle tits [he actually confirmed hiding his E tits in his
coming out statement]. It is my belief that he started HRT somewhere in this timeframe and was definitely 100% on Estrogen by the time the
"Confucius" video was uploaded.
Idk who spread the misinformation that he started HRT in Jan/Feb 2020 [he never said that lmao he only said that's when he started writing the script] but that shit makes no sense considering everything. Especially if you think that the Feb 2020 breakdown was his egg cracking, there's no way on earth or hell that he could access HRT that fucking quickly, even if he went private that's not how this works. Even if Feb 2020 indeed was the month he got transed getting HRT would not happen for months, which again brings us to this timeframe.
26th January 2021: Nyk uploads the
"J.K.Rowling" video. From what I can gather Nyk and Oliver were still friends at this time.
This is the only video Nyk uploaded in the first half of 2021. At the time of writing it's his only 2021 video. After this he goes on the longest hiatus he has ever taken, and we probably know why.
30th January 2021: Oliver publicly comes out as a tranny.
I wanted to speculate on when he got his name and gender marker changed based on his tweets about making the video but it seems he has deleted all his tweets and replies from before June 4th so i cannot get the specific dates.
What we do know however is that by the point the video was being filmed he had been on HRT for at least a few months, changed his legal name and gender marker and had zero surgeries.
We also know that before the video was uploaded he still had an okay relationship with Nyk, good enough that he
quoted him in his coming out video. A lot of people are saying this was intended to hurt Nyk but considering the fact that shit seemed to go down only AFTER this video was uploaded, I doubt it.
March 8th 2021: Nyk gets an ask about Oliver's coming out and
says "I am not in that person's life anymore. I had an inkling but I don't particularly want to speak about it."
He says it like it's an open wound. Very different compared to the way he, for example, talks about his own rape.
Now this one is interesting for multiple reasons. First, we can tell that Nyk didn't know Oliver was trans, that's pretty obvious. Second, notice that the wording is "I am not in THIS PERSON's life", not "This person is not in my life anymore". He doesn't even acknowledge Oliver's new name on his own, he struggles to even say it out loud when reading the question.
Now I know y'all love to paint Oliver as this big narcissist supervillain (tbh i just think that's giving him too much credit, he's a soyboy with a big ego at best) so I get that what I'm gonna say will be controversial but...I think Oliver might've been the one to end things with Nyk.
At this point it's only speculation but what I think happened was pretty much:
O: Hey Nat! Look I'm a tran! My name is Abigail now! I paid an homage to you in my coming out statement!
N (high on opioids): ...Olly I don't know what the fuck happened but you're not trans. I know you! You're a guy through and through! When we met you were an absolute Chad! Please stop this man you're embarrassing yourself, the pandemic just got you all messed up.
O:...fuck off??
March 25th 2021: Philosophytube Kiwifarms thread is created.
I feel like this gives us the most info on why shit got so confusing. Y'all didn't collect info gradually, you just went off and compiled shit together so obviously it seems like they've had a falling out a longass time ago. I just think it's stupid trying to make it seem like y'all know everything behind these peoples facades while not even thinking abt some of the shit you put out here. Take this as a learning moment, triple check your claims!!! Also yea feel free to add onto this as you please, I'm really interested in y'all's takes.