In my view, it's going to take one more collosal fuckup to make Biden into Bush 08 tier, both in my personal view and probably electability. I think that will come either from COVID or the economy, where either people grow tired of Coof and want actual normal life without masks back or the economy takes a massive shit. Either would be the death knell of Biden.
Afganistan will not be the major issue that decides 2022 or onward, but its peircing through Biden's voter apathy. People who had no opinion, which was a lot of voters, see this and start to see him as incompetent. Support softens or turns negative. Now that he has notch against him, people start to form opinions and start paying closer attention. The more spotlight to Biden and his policies, the more his approval shrinks. So they try to hide him, but as President, you can't hide during a major political event, or else people label you as incompetent. So you do a presser like today, where you tell off the media for not following the pre-given questions and lie blatently. Its a cycle that's flushing him down the drain.
He needs a win or a distraction to stop the cycle. Something that doesn't look likely to occur.