2018 Oscars - Predictions, live reactions, and the (hopefully) messy aftermath.

James Franco was ROBBED. Also, Martin McDonagh not getting a nod got me worried that 3 Billboards might lose to Retarded Fish Porn. Let's be honest here man, Del Toro is probably a furry and I don't think The Shape of Bestiality should win it. Although I fully expect it will because nowadays it's all about being diverse and seriously the fish is not as monstrous as some troons I've seen so yeah whatever.

I'm yet to see Phantom Thread, but I loved every single PTA movie and I'm glad he was nominated. But I fucking loved 3 Billboards.
 
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Beardfish said:
James Franco was ROBBED. Also, Martin McDonagh not getting a nod got me worried that 3 Billboards might lose to exceptional Fish Porn. Let's be honest here man, Del Toro is probably a furry and I don't think The Shape of Bestiality should win it. Although I fully expect it will because nowadays it's all about being diverse and seriously the fish is not as monstrous as some troons I've seen so yeah whatever.

I'm yet to see Phantom Thread, but I loved every single PTA movie and I'm glad he was nominated. But I fucking loved 3 Billboards.
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I'm just imagining the #MeToo salt that would come if Franco was nominated. We'll get a version of it when Casey Affleck announces the nominess for Best Actress, but it's not the same.
 
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Sexy Times Hitler said:
I'm just imagining the #MeToo salt that would come if Franco was nominated. We'll get a version of it when Casey Affleck announces the nominess for Best Actress, but it's not the same.
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If I was Casey, I probably wouldn't go. Fuck Hollywood, there's even a good chance he might be booed.
 
Lensherr said:
I personally hope Three Billboards sweeps and Logan wins Best Adapted Screenplay so we get maximum butthurt from MovieBob.
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Best Adapted's probably going to James Ivory (CMBYN), largely as a career win. Fingers crossed for Three Billboards though.

As for Moviebob salt...
PostFrontrunner.JPG
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The Post: Two nominations
Darkest Hour: Six nominations
Three Billboards: Seven nominations

Way to go, Blobstradamus.
 
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Sexy Times Hitler said:
Best Adapted's probably going to James Ivory (CMBYN), largely as a career win. Fingers crossed for Three Billboards though.
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I hope Lady Bird loses everything. I haven't even seen it and don't have an opinion about it. I just want to watch the screaming autists who freaked out about Cole Smithey's review lose their minds again.
 
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AnOminous said:
I hope Lady Bird loses everything. I haven't even seen it and don't have an opinion about it. I just want to watch the screaming autists who freaked out about Cole Smithey's review lose their minds again.
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Lady Bird is actually pretty OK. The most egregious of the nominees is probably Call me By Your Name. That movie sucks dicks both literally and figuratively.
 
sasazuka said:
For the HTFDTMGAA Award,

Maybe King Arthur for costumes? Or one of Kong: Skull Island, Transformers: The Last Knight, Alien: Covenant for effects or editing?

I don't know if they could win but they may be able to snag a nomination, at least.
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Whoa, one of my "outside chance" nomination picks in the technical categories actually got nominated, Kong: Skull Island for effects.
 
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Odd that Christopher Plummer got a nomination considering he was only brought in to replace Kevin Spacey :\
 
I hope Three Billboards wins everything, both because I liked it the most out of any movie I've seen this year and to see the screeching from people too autistic to understand that a character getting lots of screentime in a movie does not mean that the director thinks that character is a good person.

I liked Lady Bird. If that wins I'll be fine with it.

Unfortunately haven't gotten to see Phantom Thread or Call Me By Your Name yet.

I found The Shape of Water okay but not great. Fish Man had no character other than 'is a Fish Man'. It was a gimmick that never really got interesting beyond that gimmick.

Get Out, I actually did like, but I don't think it was the best of the year and the people praising it like it's the second coming of Christ are obnoxious, especially because they almost never comment on the actual plot, acting, or writing and are just praising it because it's not about white people. I this wins, people are going to act like they did with Moonlight, as if they stuck it to mainstream Hollywood. As if mainstream Hollywood didn't vote for the Best Picture in the first place.

Dunkirk and The Post were ok.

Darkest Hour bored me, a lot, and I say this as someone who sits through much longer movies on a regular basis. I'm interested in WWII but this didn't tell me anything I didn't already know and didn't really present what I did know in an interesting way. It's a vehicle for Oldman's acting, which is very good, but still doesn't make for an interesting movie.

I would have chosen I, Tonya and The Disaster Artist over most of these.
 
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The Nothingness said:
Odd that Christopher Plummer got a nomination considering he was only brought in to replace Kevin Spacey :\
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if the #metoo thing werent a thing, he'd have been nominated instead. we also wouldnt have known the true reason spacey's character kept baby working for him all those years
 
Deadwaste said:
but it winning would be like winning the lotto
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I didn't see Kong: Skull Island (I didn't see much of anything at the movies last year and it's not on Netflix Canada) but the effects in the trailers/clips I've seen look impeccable.

However, I thought it would be overlooked for nomination since it was an March release that did okay but not spectacular at the box office. I know it's probably not going to win, though. The front runners seem to be a different "monkey" movie, War for the Planet of the Apes, and Blade Runner 2049.
 
The only films I've seen on the list are Three Billboards, BR2049, Logan and Disaster Artist so I don't have a great grasp on the merits of the films nominated but I'm going to make some predictions nonetheless.
  • I think Shape of Water will win best picture, from the trailers I've seen it seems like a very "classic hollywood" romance story which the boards lap up, audience reaction be damned. A lot of the bets I make here are based on the idea that the board are old as fuck so I could be really wrong from here on out.
  • Call me by your name will probably win Adapted screenplay. It'd be nice to see Logan get that win but I think its association with the X-men may taint its chances. And as much as I love the disaster artist? The Franco allegations mean its unlikely to win.
  • Coco will certainly win animated feature. It's a Disney feature competing against the boss baby and a John Cena bull movie. Come on.
  • Phantom thread is likely going to get best score. I've heard some really good things about how memorable it is and thats usually a positive sign for any OST nominated for this award. Three Billboards is definitely a close second though.
  • I can guarantee that Frances McDormand WILL win best actress for Three Billboards. I'm so confident in this that I'm also going to say her performance will go down as one of the greatest casting choices ever made. She really should be proud of her performance.
  • On the subject of Three Billboards I can see Woody Harrelson getting a supporting actor win. Sam Rockwell had the better character but his character is also too controversial to win an award.
  • Best Director is a mixup and I honestly have no good answer for it because Martin McDonagh got snubbed. What fuckin' gives?
  • Director will probably be either Shape of Water or Phantom Thread.
  • Cinematography is in an awkward place because if it wasn't for SOW sweeping the noms it would be a locked win. But who knows? SOW looks nice, I guess, but BR2049's visuals are wallpaper material. This is personally another three billboards snub, its a very pretty movie and one of the films highlights is a really haunting one-take that you'll know when you see it.
  • Film editing is going to be a really controversial snub for baby driver and it'll probably get snubbed in sound editing too. Dunkirk seems to have a really good chance to get both.
  • Production design is in the same spot as cinematography int hat it's either going to go to Blade Runner or to Shape of Water.
  • Costume design could go to Phantom Thread.
  • For visual effects I thought it would be a three-way between BR2049, Last Jedi, and Planet of the Apes. But honestly Star Wars' cutting edge visuals from back in the day seem just par for the course now for any other big hollywood movie and POTA is using old but really good tech, so it's probably going to be a win for BR2049.
 
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In terms of major awards:
* Best Picture is pretty much between Three Billboards and The Shape of Water at this point. While I'd be okay if either of them won, I'm giving the edge to Shape of Water in terms of amount of nominations, having a Mexican director (Fuck you Trump!), and partially being a love letter to cinema and old movies in particular, which outside of La La Land always seems to work with voters.
* Del Toro's probably gonna win Best Director, as he's taken home almost every other directing award.
* Best Actor is less of a competition and more of a coronation for Gary Oldman, but if he turns out to be a sex pervert, then expect the award to go to Timothee Chalamet.
* Best Actress is also largely a two horse race between Frances McDormand and Saoirse Ronan, and I'm giving the edge to McDormand because pretty much everyone agrees that she gave a powerhouse performance.
* Ditto Best Supporting Actress, with Laurie Metcalf and Alison Janney. Again, giving the edge to Janney as it's the performance more people are talking about.
* Sam Rockwell pretty much has Best Supporting Actor in the bag, and the salt is gonna be incredible.
* Best Original Screenplay's a tossup between Three Billboards and Lady Bird, while Call Me By Your Name's all but assured Best Adapted Screenplay.
chadmuska said:
Has a horror movie even won an oscar historically? Let alone a comedic horror?
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The Exorcist did.
 
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The Exorcist got nominated for Best Picture for 1973 and borderline horror movie The Sixth Sense was nominated for 1999.

Deliverance, nominated a year earlier, kinda counts as a "horror" movie but it's usually defined as a "crime drama".

Another movie that can be loosely-defined as horror, Silence of the Lambs, won Best Picture for 1991.

(I'm saying "for" to designate the year the movie was released, the Oscars at which they won were held the following year, obviously.)
 
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