$ (BTC) The Bitcoin Thread - NO SHITCOINERS ALLOWED

Absolutely vile chart since the mid-March top at ~73k
Not really. Bitcoin is usually boring in the months post halving. Failed cycle is possible, though unlikely in my eyes. In the long term, M2 continues to increase, alongside government deficit spending. Meanwhile, Bitcoin only becomes more scarce as stock to flow increases and more coins make their way into the wallets of long-term holders.
 
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53k down 5 Percent today alone.
What a stable alternative to fiat.
It's a sign of an immature market. Which is sensible upon realizing the total value of Bitcoin is $1.1 T, and it has only existed for 16 years. Compare how Bitcoin treats long-term savers versus the USD.
 

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"Why don't you just buy gold?"

The main issue with precious metals (with gold being the least affected) is their elastic supply. If the price of silver rises significantly, more miners will expand their operations to take advantage of higher profit margins. This naturally increases the supply in the market, which depresses the price. Gold has historically been used as the primary treasury asset because it has the lowest elastic supply. This means that even if markets value gold more highly relative to goods and services, miners cannot easily expand their operations to capitalize on the higher prices. This characteristic contributes to gold's role as a more stable store of value than any other metal (or physical commodity for that matter).

However, gold isn’t perfect, as it has an annual inflation rate of approximately 3%, meaning holders of gold experience dilution as new supply is introduced. Bitcoin, on the other hand, can be seen as the "perfect" precious metal, since it is absolutely scarce, with a programmatically capped supply of 21 million units. As a result, it is impossible for one’s bitcoin holdings to be diluted. Additionally, Bitcoin has the advantage of being electronic and nearly massless (the mass of electrons is negligible), allowing it to be transferred as easily and quickly as a digital message.

For these reasons among others, gold has aggressively lost purchasing power relative to Bitcoin. However, if you believe Bitcoin was created by the NSA who possess backdoor access, or that Bitcoin has some other fatal flaw, I consider that beyond the scope of this comment, this is already plenty long. Refuting every theory would be extremely time-consuming.
 
However, gold isn’t perfect, as it has an annual inflation rate of approximately 3%, meaning holders of gold experience dilution as new supply is introduced. Schlubcoin, on the other hand, can be seen as the "perfect" precious metal, since it is absolutely scarce, with a programmatically capped supply of 21 million units. As a result, it is impossible for one’s Schlubcoin holdings to be diluted. Additionally, Schlubcoin has the advantage of being electronic and nearly massless (the mass of electrons is negligible), allowing it to be transferred as easily and quickly as a digital message.
 
If the price of silver rises significantly, more miners will expand their operations to take advantage of higher profit margins.
I will grant you this argument point. Now, silver is a consumable resource, in many industrial uses, so, there's a drain in the supply available, as it is used in these ways that demand for it draws out from the supply, in a counteraction to this granted point.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, can be seen as the "perfect" precious metal, since it is absolutely scarce, with a programmatically capped supply of 21 million units.
Bitcoin's agreed upon supply does not replicate physical properties of precious metals. They are not the same. They are on different sides of the speculation spectrum for commodities, one conservative, one speculative risky as can be.
 
Bitcoin's agreed upon supply does not replicate physical properties of precious metals. They are not the same. They are on different sides of the speculation spectrum for commodities, one conservative, one speculative risky as can be.
A lot of gold and other precious commodities (like jewels) only have artificial scarcity. The miners collude with each other to keep the supply limited. This is especially the case with commodities like diamonds, where a tiny number of monopolistic companies make sure to limit mining.

In the case of Bitcoin, a LEGITIMATELY and INTRINSICALLY limited commodity, there is absolutely no way to avoid the limitation. Bitcoin miners can't just simply mine more, like diamond miners can. Even a superpower government couldn't flood the market. And the limit on the amount ultimately taps out at 21 million. After that, it's just done.

This is why it pisses me off when absolute retards who have no clue what a Ponzi scheme is call Bitcoin one. Just shut the fuck up retard until you know what the fuck you're talking about.
 
This is why it pisses me off when absolute retards who have no clue what a Ponzi scheme is call Bitcoin one.
It has the apparent element of a traditional Ponzi scheme, if you don't know how to profit if the price goes down once you buy some, in that low information "experts" firmly believe that the only way to make money off it is to have a "greater fool" let you sell them your satoshis for a greater price than you pay for them. People making money off bitcoin writing smart contracts to profit off of put options apparently is also a ponzi scheme to them though, so they either don't understand or have wrong definitions, which leads to not understanding.
 
In the case of Bitcoin, a LEGITIMATELY and INTRINSICALLY limited commodity, there is absolutely no way to avoid the limitation. Bitcoin miners can't just simply mine more, like diamond miners can. Even a superpower government couldn't flood the market. And the limit on the amount ultimately taps out at 21 million. After that, it's just done.
Miners can decide whenever they want to increase the supply to infinity.
 
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Miners can decide whenever they want to increase the supply to infinity.
No they can't, full nodes will reject their blocks. Actually, it's so obvious any validating node will reject them.
 
Whoops, I have more hash power and thus the longer chain. Turns out you actually own a shitcoin and not the True Honest Bitcoin.
Bitcoin hasn't hardforked for the entire time I've owned any, I doubt it would be that simple.
 
It has the apparent element of a traditional Ponzi scheme, if you don't know how to profit if the price goes down once you buy some, in that low information "experts" firmly believe that the only way to make money off it is to have a "greater fool" let you sell them your satoshis for a greater price than you pay for them.
As with any volatile commodity, there are always going to be the dummies who buy because the price has been going up, while disregarding that every high point ends with a selloff. It lacks the fundamental aspect of a Ponzi in that by the end of the scam, a Ponzi invariably collapses because the assets claimed to be backing it DO NOT EXIST and they can no longer bring in money fast enough to pay the "profits" to existing victim/perps (because anyone deliberately investing in such a scheme is motivated by greed).

Whereas Bitcoin always retains its fundamental value storage function by being hard limited as to supply, no matter what happens to demand. Nobody can flood the market with it like something like gold or diamonds, where the cartel controlling supply could just suddenly fall apart and its former members suddenly start mining what they previously colluded to refrain from mining.

Since Bitcoin is also fundamentally useless, it doesn't have the externalities where competing uses for something like gold can suddenly constrict supply.

It does have the problem of gold and precious metals in general that people tend to sit on it rather than actually use it as money.

Now, Bitcoin DOES make an excellent currency to do a Ponzi scam in, but so does fiat.
 
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At the time of my writing this, bitcoin at the cusp of making a new all time high. This comes after approximately 8 months of sideways price movement. I predict a price range of US $250,000 - $1m in the 2024-2028 epoch. This aligns closely with the stock-to-flow model. The main driver of Bitcoin's value is scarcity, the "halving" significantly and instantaneously increases the stock to flow. Where stock to flow = current stock / annual increase to stock. Stores of value must be scarce to ensure holdings are not being debased by a tidal wave of incoming supply. It is theoretically possible to have an asset more scarce than bitcoin, but does that asset have a comparable amount of security (hash-rate) to bitcoin?

The grey line on the graph is the stock-to-flow function. You can clearly see how the bitcoin price (log scale) roughly follows the step-wise function, with some lag. The horizontal parts of the step-wise function are the average prices for each epoch (I believe US ~$500k is the predicted average for this epoch). I'm excited to see how this post ages. Was I right? Or was I retarded and wrong? Time will tell.
 

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