This is something I've been wondering: have Canadians played themselves? I don't believe that Trump is a complete idiot. He has probably realized that Canadians have built little infrastructure and kneecapped resource development in the last decade. Similarly I reckon that he knows that Canadians have reinvested little in their own businesses and instead put that investment in a real estate bubble. That gives the United States a competitive advantage over Canada thus is in Trump's best interests that Carney is Prime Minister because he will he accelerate Trudeau's policies to weaken Canada's economic standing in future negotiations.
Your terms are acceptable.
Both kind of did.
As people pointed out earlier, whats likely to happen is that
after the election, whomever is in charge will tone down the saber rattling a bit, and seek out a deal/try to salvage whatever economy they can with Trump.
Not going to get into too many details there, but Trump is also backing out of a lot of the tariffs, and fucked around with too many countries, is trying to restabalize relations with Beijing (and failing), the bond market is tanking, etc.
Whats likely to happen here is Carney and Trump will meet, will met out some trade deal, both will portray it as a 'win!' for their respective nations, and a big nothingburger will happen. Canada might actually lose out a bit, but not entirely- you may have some auto jobs remaining or moving further south of the border, and the downward trend towards our literal southern neighbor will continue. Perhaps Trump will actually "win" on a few fronts, and there will be even more lowered trade barriers. Don't forget that with the USD lower, this actually might just entice manufacturing companies on the fence prior to move south.
On the Canadian side, you could hope that a more stable trade relationship with the US, a more
sober looking leader globally (cough, to the globalists), and the right kind of PR could also boost the Canadian dollar (thus weakening out own manufacturing, ironically). I'm hoping for this, as I've been living outside of Canada since the vaccine was rolled out (saw a lot of writing on the wall, left far earlier than most I guess), and would love to trade my CAD out for something more stable.
For actual structural stuff- give it up with Carney. There's basically
zero way that hes getting manufacturing back in the nation. If you think the US is fucked there (seriously, who expects the average American to be competing with China level wages making iphones in a sweatshop, unless youre Elon Musk)- its even worse in Canada. You add the taxes, the lack of infrastructure, the lost generation, and there just isn't an economy to create. My guess is that he will further financialize the Canadian economy, we might have short term gains (if all goes well) and then expect Canada to wind up like how he ran England. A smouldering ruin of a casino where some people got rich, its mega islamified, and most got fucked. Whats different I guess is we have already had a decade of being fucked, and the Indians.
Don't forget as well, that we have a massive housing bubble, that in many ways our current housing bubble is worse than the US's in 07, and that is due to pop sooner or later. When it does, a lot of our 'perceived wealth' will be gone with it. While it would fuck the economy, I actually somewhat cheer it on, because its the literal only way any millennial will ever have a house, be able to afford renting again- and after this election,
noone should like the boomers or have literally any sympathy for them any longer. If your parents bought their home 10 or 20 years ago- theyll hopefully be fine as long as theyre not refinancing it. A home is a home, and allowing our housing market to get financialized was an utter mistake.
Whats actually going to happen next is that any young people with sense who
have made it are probably going to be looking at what happened, and leaving the country. Brain drain is going to be real over the next few decades, as if nothing is fixed, and it won't be, its like living in a sinking ship. Remember- the average income is below Missouri, with the cost of living being higher than California, and the tax rate being akin to Scandinavia. If youre anyone lucky enough to have a career, you are either long going or going to get going.
Expect more of a competency crisis, expect more band-aid solutions, more Indians, and greater social unrest. God help Canadians I guess.
