- Joined
- Apr 21, 2013
Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?
- Thread starter mindlessobserver
- Start date
- Joined
- Jan 21, 2018
Yeah let’s just keep exclusively blaming Putin and the logistic issues for inflation to forget that JPow and the boys were printing like lunatics two years ago.
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2013
And biden shutting down oil production
vern
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2018
So anyone have a bet on when a recession will be officially declared?
I had money on July when the quarter earnings where announced with a good chance of hitting the 20% threshold, but now I suspect it'll limp along for a few more months to a year.
I had money on July when the quarter earnings where announced with a good chance of hitting the 20% threshold, but now I suspect it'll limp along for a few more months to a year.
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2013
Probably after midterms. Dont want people voting red now do we?
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- Feb 1, 2022
A recession will be officially declared the moment that they need to persuade the American public that a depression won't happen. Which, of course, means that a depression will happen or is already happening.
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2021
Looks like the government pigs are starting to turn on another because shit's getting worse and they don't want to be the one left holding the bag.
vern
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2018
Well that implies two things
The current administration is competent enough to manipulate the market that long
the GOP won't try and do a little in the opposite direction to blame in on Biden
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2013
They can influence people from calling it a recession. They'll just have their MSM stooges say any news of a recession is fake news, a conspiracy theory, etc. Then officially say it is after the midterms so people can't take back their vote. Disregarding the fact it looks like a red wave this fall.
vern
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2018
Can't wait to see what kind of cope they'll show when they try to fact check that just because GPD, the S&P, and the Dow have been down for 2 almost 3 straight quarters, that doesn't mean the US is in a recession
- Joined
- Sep 21, 2019
Energy is likely to stay solidly high for the foreseeable future; Naftogaz (Ukraine's national oil & gas provider) is still sending Russian oil westward at a trickle, and is actively pursuing American LNG exporters. The most likely US provider is Cheniere (both $CQP and $LNG are the Cheniere partnership), because way back when oil exploration wasn't doing too hot, the son of an Egyptian diplomat decided he would start a company focused primarily on exporting liquefied natural gas (the recent fire at a refinery in Texas was also Cheniere). Exxon is way too busy developing the huge offshore reserves in Guyana, and Argentina is starting to look at developing the Vaca Muerte, but these will all take months to get online.
Also, check this out:
US capacity is staying the same, but we're switching from oil rigs to gas rigs. The frac spread is down (this is the number of full fracking kits out doing things; some wells, like in the Dakotas, fracture shale that continues to produce for a long time, so these things can change slowly. There are about 320 frac spreads total available).
I think this means that, despite the political message one way or the other, we're moving towards changing the composition of our production, given the current climate. Of course, things would be easier if we were fracking enough to cover our costs, but as that's not likely at the moment, I suppose being an LNG exporter at least means we're still in business,
$USO calls if you think events will make oil prices continue to climb
$UUP if you think the fed will actually keep hiking rates
$WMT if you just want to hold something familiar that will do okay in a recession
$TZA and $SQQQ if fuck da police
$SARK calls if fuck da police but you really want the schadenfreude of watching Cathie Wood fail for buying shitcoins and Tesla
Also, check this out:
US capacity is staying the same, but we're switching from oil rigs to gas rigs. The frac spread is down (this is the number of full fracking kits out doing things; some wells, like in the Dakotas, fracture shale that continues to produce for a long time, so these things can change slowly. There are about 320 frac spreads total available).
I think this means that, despite the political message one way or the other, we're moving towards changing the composition of our production, given the current climate. Of course, things would be easier if we were fracking enough to cover our costs, but as that's not likely at the moment, I suppose being an LNG exporter at least means we're still in business,
$USO calls if you think events will make oil prices continue to climb
$UUP if you think the fed will actually keep hiking rates
$WMT if you just want to hold something familiar that will do okay in a recession
$TZA and $SQQQ if fuck da police
$SARK calls if fuck da police but you really want the schadenfreude of watching Cathie Wood fail for buying shitcoins and Tesla
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
For some reason the idiots in charge assumed they were masters of the universe. They legitimately believed they could just impose their vision and beliefs by will alone. I expect we are about to go full soviet, and even if we are in a full blown depression, we are going to be told things have never been better.
They need the peons to keep spending and not saving. There is way too much corporate debt outstanding. And i bet a huge chunk of it is adjustable. The federal reserve can't just hike interest rates on all the debt at the same time households are cutting back spending. Corporate debts would become more expensive to service at the exact same time corporate revenues are collapsing.
The Ukraine War and the price of fuel is the outside context variable in the perfectly ordered formula of these idiots. I think the powers that be honestly believed that this time they could handle an asset bubble reduction, because they had perfect control of media, academics, and "the science". All of which said that if they just kept bullshitting, they could fake it till they made it.
Modern Money Theory in a nutshell.
Unfortunately the consumer market is getting slaughtered by gas and food prices. Consumer spending is retracting. Investor sentiment is at extreme fear, and core inflation is on an inexorable march to double digits. There are no off ramps. Inflation is going to decimate the consumer market. It has to be put under control. Before the Northern Hemisphere winter and the massive spike in energy demand.
But to get Inflation under control interest rates need to go up. But if that happens, many corporations already on the brink will go bankrupt. Especially in the service sector that is reliant on consumer sentiment. Which also happens to be the backbone of all post industrial western economy thanks to off shoring.
It's a perfect storm. I wish I had been wrong back in 2021.
- Joined
- Oct 4, 2020
- Joined
- May 17, 2019
When I look at the graph I get really sad that my ETH has dropped in value so much. Then I remember that I literally got my ETH for free and stop being sad.
- Joined
- Oct 21, 2018
Crypto bros will not feel so hot when the margin calls hit the whales...
- Joined
- Sep 19, 2020
Sure feels like some hedgebros are getting close to being fully felted, I wonder who is next.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see some truly gargantuan players get liquidated this year, if you have liquidity in the bank you'd better find somewhere to put it because your money being insured for XXXk is a meme to prevent bank runs.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see some truly gargantuan players get liquidated this year, if you have liquidity in the bank you'd better find somewhere to put it because your money being insured for XXXk is a meme to prevent bank runs.
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2018
We've been on this trajectory since 2008. We should have laid off the QE and started raising rates in Obama's second term, but that's didn't happen, and then Trump certainly didn't fucking help trying to pressure the Fed to go negative with interest rates.
So now we're here without any levers to pull and thanks to over a decade of malinvestment and corporations having easy access to loans we're looking at a world of shit.
(If I was in charge I'd slash rates and use taxation to tame inflation since you can target that much better in sectors where it's a problem but I'm not a dictator and Congress currently can't get its shit together so...we're double fucked.)
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
I bet we will see some creative accounting. At least through the election.
Functional Animal
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Mar 17, 2015
Haha, jokes on you, I'm broke!
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
The problem with using taxation is all these corporations are dead broke. They don't have cash to tax. They have massive lines of credit supporting projects to generate revenue that is then expended to service obligations on their debt. We may not be overleveraged like Chinese development firms, but we are still getting there.
In fact, the whole corporate finance structure has led to perverse incentives. If by some miracle a corporation ends up with leftover cash after all their obligations have been paid and future projects invested in, they can't just save that money for later. They have to ship it out to shareholders as a dividend or risk catching a lawsuit or the SEC breathing down their necks.
You want to talk about how our modern economic system works against consumer saving. It doesn't hold a candle to what Corporations are put through. In some cases it can actually be illegal for a corporation to hold onto its money.