Global Depression 2022 - Time to do the Breadline Boogaloo!

[Dog-O-Tron 5000v5.0]

It's almost like someone is trying to reset the entire economic system.

That sounds great.

 

[Blobby's Murder Knife]

I was curious what percentage of homebuyers had ARMs and then I found this post that aged particularly poorly by the Financial Samurai on them. At anyrate, after the washout in the last housing crisis, only a very small percentage of mortgages were ARMs. So most people are in fixed products with a much lower interest rate than exists now and likely will for the forseeable future. That will put a lot of pressure on people not to sell because wtf will they buy? I am thinking that people think there might be a crash and given interest rates have gone higher are panic selling. Not everyone needs a mortgage though or a high one.

I noticed also listing were up (I think this actually started around April that I noticed this). At the same time a house a few houses down from me just closed. Asking price was $605k. It sold for $667k. So despite an uptick in listings, people are still getting into retarded bidding wars over them.

 

[Chinggis Khan]

And I HAVE a loan on land that cost $600k. It costs me about $3500 a month at the old rates and only a 20 year loan

You probably put down a sizeable down payment, you don’t have PMI, you live in a low tax area and it doesn’t cost as much to insure.

Here’s an example where an 800k loan can come out to 6k per month.



Yes I’m talking about edge cases in the hot real estate markets, because these are specifically the people who might be the cause of the next real estate crisis. In a down economy they will cause a wave of foreclosures and/or a rapid sell off of inventory driving down prices. But on paper they look “safe” because they have high credit scores and are “wealthy” from a combined income of 250K or more, despite having little savings and having a lifestyle that is mostly month-to-month

Not everybody in 2007 had a variable rate mortgage but the entire economy was impacted by the extreme cases of unqualified buyers taking on large ARM mortgages.

 

[Meat Target]

I can't save on groceries by shopping at Aldi, because everyone who shops at Aldi is a gormless, drooling halfwit who clogs up every aisle indefinitely. And there's never more than one register open at a time.

 

[jumbomilkers]

I can't save on groceries by shopping at Aldi, because everyone who shops at Aldi is a gormless, drooling halfwit who clogs up every aisle indefinitely. And there's never more than one register open at a time.

Lidl is better. Join their rewards program.

 

[Lorne Armstrong]

I can't save on groceries by shopping at Aldi, because everyone who shops at Aldi is a gormless, drooling halfwit who clogs up every aisle indefinitely. And there's never more than one register open at a time.

Next time, go right before they open. All the carts will be outside. Look through all the carts and pull out all the quarters that yesterdays customers forgot and left. I usually get $1-$2 that way before I even walk in the store.

 

[Meat Target]

Lidl is better. Join their rewards program.

Never heard of it.

 

[Polarity]

I noticed also listing were up (I think this actually started around April that I noticed this). At the same time a house a few houses down from me just closed. Asking price was $605k. It sold for $667k. So despite an uptick in listings, people are still getting into retarded bidding wars over them.

Yeah, I don't think anyone can really predict what will happen (keep in mind the Fed still owns 2 trillion in mortgages and has been underwriting "$0 down I have no income aside from disability " veteran loans for more than a decade now). I don't see anyone selling either unless the bottom falls out of the job market, which also seems unlikely.

I suppose interest rates climbing to 10-15% 70s style would put every new owner massively underwater, but even then, subsidizing mortgage rates effectively near 0% for so long is just one of those policies only our representatives would be stupid enough to come up with. Hand out free housing for a generation, screw the next one. Could lead to tremendous social instability on top of what we already have.

It's just amazing how everything the government touches turns to ash. Education? Everyone needs it! *proceeds to give trillions to colleges peddling gender theory, pays for a four year party and indoctrination for every dullard on the planet, inflates massive bubble*. Housing? Everyone needs it...

 

[Dr. Geronimo]

So the near future is that I'm fucked if I'm trying to get a house now?

 

[Polarity]

So the near future is that I'm fucked if I'm trying to get a house now?

Buying a house can be a good idea if:

• You need the house.
• You can afford the house. (2-3x your salary)
• You plan on staying in the same area for 5+ years.
• You anticipate you have moderately stable income.

Most people buy houses as an investment / stretch the monthly payment as far as they possibly can / think renting is "throwing away money" etc.

 

[Angry Alt Right Nerd]

It's just amazing how everything the government touches turns to ash. Education? Everyone needs it! *proceeds to give trillions to colleges peddling gender theory, pays for a four year party and indoctrination for every dullard on the planet, inflates massive bubble*. Housing? Everyone needs it...

The government's just doing what the people wanted. The masses are just as short-sighted, any politician that says you can't have everything you want will be voted out and replaced with a politician that says you can have everything you want at no cost.

 

[Meat Target]

So the near future is that I'm fucked if I'm trying to get a house now?

Best you can hope for is a crackhouse in KC, Oakland, South Central, or East St. Louis for $350K. Or a Fisher-Price playhouse.

Hell, do like Bubbles from Trailer Park Boys and get yourself a nice shed from Home Depot (before BlackRock starts nabbing those, too, as "investment property").

 

[Dr. Geronimo]

Buying a house can be a good idea if:

• You need the house.
• You can afford the house. (2-3x your salary)
• You plan on staying in the same area for 5+ years.
• You anticipate you have moderately stable income.

Most people buy houses as an investment / stretch the monthly payment as far as they possibly can / think renting is "throwing away money" etc.

I'm just tired of shared parking and not being able to do what I want with my area. There's still good houses in my area that are in the 150 range, which is doable for me.

 

[Hippopatumus]

Now is a killer time to buy a house if you are paying cash.

It's a marginal time to buy a house with rates so high, but prices are dropping to compensate so it's still not that bad of a time actually. 6% is still historically pretty low of a mortgage rate, especially with inflation as high as it is. If rates go up, you'll be glad you got in at 6%, and if they go down, you refi.

Also not a bad idea to just get a plot of land and build a cabin on it, expand as your money allows.

 

[Black Light Red Panic]

I'm just tired of shared parking and not being able to do what I want with my area. There's still good houses in my area that are in the 150 range, which is doable for me.

Buy land in the middle of nowhere and build your own crack shack.

 

[The Ugly One]

So exactly the types of jobs people are going to have to pick up as a buffer job when their overpaid “meme job” gets laid off?

Since you’re all about averages… why don’t you look up what the average age for a person making $10-$15 an hour is? Pro-tip: it’s not anywhere close to what you would think as a “young person” is.

You said this:

most of the workforce is still sweating at $10-$15 an hour.

It is factually wrong. Most of the workforce makes more than this.

And??? Do you have any idea what a million dollars gets for a house in the hot markets we are talking about?

Yes. Fast food workers don't live in those neighborhoods. They tend to not even live in houses at all. They live in horrible apartments in the shitty places. The memeworkers don't live in houses, either. They live in decent apartments near shopping & bars.

But you’re half right, these are edge cases and a slight exaggeration, but I was thinking more in line of the 600-800k range, which is around the feeding frenzy we saw in the last few years in hot real estate markets driving up the national average.

You're not buying a house in 600k-800k range on anything less than a 6-figure income. Fast food workers don't live in those neighborhoods, not in Seattle, not in the Bay Area, not in NYC, not in Austin, and not anywhere else.

Which with P&I, taxes, insurance and PMI can put you north of about 6k a month. Those mortgage calculators tend to try and hide the additional fees and costs associated with a mortgage. And on top of that, a lot of homebuyers are using high interest secondary loans to pay their closing costs and down payment. Look it up.

Take 6,000. Multiply it by 12. Since spending anything over 1/3 of your income on housing is insane, multiply that by three.

6000 * 12 * 3 = $216,000

This is not entry-level meme work. The memework jobs even at Big Tech tend to be between $80k and $120k.

The original point still stands that when these new homebuyers get laid off they are not going to be anywhere near paying off their mortgage, even at $25 an hour!

Yes, when people lose their jobs, they often end up selling their houses. That's not an interesting point; I am simply pointing out that your claim that an $8K/month mortgage is typical, and that the majority of Americans earn less than $15 an hour, are both factually wrong.

Just get your facts straight. Use real numbers. The median compensation in America is $40 an hour, not $15. Without considering benefits, it's $24. Memeworkers at Shittech live in overpriced apartments like sardines; they don't have $8k mortgages on mutli-million-dollar houses. When you get all your basic facts wrong, it doesn't really matter what your point is. The guys making $500K/year at the FAANGs who can actually afford mortgages in Silicon Valley aren't at low skill joke jobs.

 

[Puff]

You probably put down a sizeable down payment, you don’t have PMI, you live in a low tax area and it doesn’t cost as much to insure.

Here’s an example where an 800k loan can come out to 6k per month.

View attachment 3407087

Yes I’m talking about edge cases in the hot real estate markets, because these are specifically the people who might be the cause of the next real estate crisis. In a down economy they will cause a wave of foreclosures and/or a rapid sell off of inventory driving down prices. But on paper they look “safe” because they have high credit scores and are “wealthy” from a combined income of 250K or more, despite having little savings and having a lifestyle that is mostly month-to-month

Not everybody in 2007 had a variable rate mortgage but the entire economy was impacted by the extreme cases of unqualified buyers taking on large ARM mortgages.

No down payment (other land as collateral, it's off the loan now) , but there are some benefits for first time farm owner and farm buyer under 30 benefits. Not really sure what they are And taxes are absolute bargain basement because of environmental easements, but they're covered outside the loan. (I realize I probably got one hell of a sweetheart deal between paying federal grant games and being in an insanely good area to buy in)
Need to sell some trees off of it to pay off before that industry dies though. I'll be fairly high and dry if timber crashes and I lose my job to the economy at the same time. I wonder if you can offload wilderness land in a depression.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

That sounds great.

It would be if they were resetting the economy so it wouldn't be as rigged toward them.

Best you can hope for is a crackhouse in KC, Oakland, South Central, or East St. Louis for $350K. Or a Fisher-Price playhouse.

Last time I checked, East St. Louis, most of Detroit, West Side Chicago, etc. has a lot of really cheap housing. You can buy an awesome house with cool vintage architecture sometimes for under 50K. Okay, sure, you have to replace the windows at bare minimum, but hey, you get a nice house in a diverse area, what are you complaining about?

 

[Puff]

It would be if they were resetting the economy so it wouldn't be as rigged toward them.

Last time I checked, East St. Louis, most of Detroit, West Side Chicago, etc. has a lot of really cheap housing. You can buy an awesome house with cool vintage architecture sometimes for under 50K. Okay, sure, you have to replace the windows at bare minimum, but hey, you get a nice house in a diverse area, what are you complaining about?

I'm not sure entirely depopulated is "diverse" in the case of Detroit. Had a crazy man from Lincoln Park giving directions, so we probably avoided the worst of it, but damn, Detroit proper too deserted to have crime.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

No down payment (other land as collateral, it's off the loan now) , but there are some benefits for first time farm owner and farm buyer under 30 benefits. Not really sure what they are And taxes are absolute bargain basement because of environmental easements, but they're covered outside the loan. (I realize I probably got one hell of a sweetheart deal between paying federal grant games and being in an insanely good area to buy in)
Need to sell some trees off of it to pay off before that industry dies though. I'll be fairly high and dry if timber crashes and I lose my job to the economy at the same time. I wonder if you can offload wilderness land in a depression.

Re: Farm benefits. Part of my job technically so here's how it works:
Fed gov gives you 45% of the farm land purchase cost, 5% you down pay, rest is from a bank at a fixed loan that is 4% less than current interest rate not less than 1.5% rate for 30-40 years. Cannot balloon payments.

Requirements:

• Under age of 45 (or 35?)
• 3 years of "agricultural management of a farm or related facility" in last 10 years. Needs to be signed by previous employer. College degree in AG, military service with good discharge can substitute for 1 year each.
• Be federally allowed to receive funding (Mainly draft related).
• Do not have owned a previous farm operation
• Purchase size must be no less than the average size of acreage for farms in your county. Eg, if you somehow come across LAX that's like 5 acres, you could theoretically get a loan.
• Commercial lenders refused a loan for the purchase before (not hard to do these days)

Funding is first come, first serve. Veterans, women, minorities (Asian, Black, Hispanic, sorry White lads) get priority.

Edit: YOU CANNOT BUY EQUIPMENT FOR THIS LOAN. MUST TAKE OUT AN OPERATIONAL LOAN. OTHERWISE IRS WILL RAPE YOUR ASS.