Hyperinflation

[Hippopatumus]

Uncollateralized? But with a big deposit, yes?

No

 

[Overly Serious]

No

If it's not PL'ing, when does the 0% expire and just how small a deposit did they ask for in this mortgage? I'm actually really just trying to see what the borrowing market is like right now and how worried I should be so truly just a general opinion is good too - I don't really need the details unless you want to share. You're obviously in a different financial bracket than I am (no sour grapes - very happy for you) but I haven't done any major borrowing in some time, bar a mortgage renegotiation a few years ago.

I'm trying to get my head around if this is really the yawning chasm of public debt it sounds like. On the one hand, if we see (more) crazy inflation then that can wipe out a lot of people's debt. But on the other hand if it's interest rate linked like mortgages then the lag of wages to inflation could wipe people out instead. Also, the banks must know what's coming so I can't believe they're going to screw themselves over if inflation takes off.

 

[Hippopatumus]

If it's not PL'ing, when does the 0% expire and just how small a deposit did they ask for in this mortgage? I'm actually really just trying to see what the borrowing market is like right now and how worried I should be so truly just a general opinion is good too - I don't really need the details unless you want to share. You're obviously in a different financial bracket than I am (no sour grapes - very happy for you) but I haven't done any major borrowing in some time, bar a mortgage renegotiation a few years ago.

I'm trying to get my head around if this is really the yawning chasm of public debt it sounds like. On the one hand, if we see (more) crazy inflation then that can wipe out a lot of people's debt. But on the other hand if it's interest rate linked like mortgages then the lag of wages to inflation could wipe people out instead. Also, the banks must know what's coming so I can't believe they're going to screw themselves over if inflation takes off.

House full OF furniture. I bought furniture in an uncollateralized loan. Not a house. No deposit though.

I do have recent mortgage experience though, and I used to be a mortgage loan officer so I can probably answer any questions related to that.

Right now the best deal you can get is 5% down on a 30-year fixed, assuming you have good credit. Rates are between 2.5% and 3.25%. Back when I was selling loans, the rates were 5-7% so this is pretty amazing. House prices have roughly doubled in the last 24 months, and we may very well likely see a housing market crash in the next couple years, but I suspect it will be a temporary correction, and I do not see a long-term decline in the cards.

If you were in the market for $250k houses before, now those same houses are a half mil. Still worth it in my mind, because I think inflation is going to make up for that in short order. I think even given the inventory shortage and inflated prices it's still a good time to purchase a house, provided you have some runway in savings in case the job market shits itself (which I think is very plausible).

 

[Overly Serious]

House full OF furniture. I bought furniture in an uncollateralized loan. Not a house. No deposit though.

Oh, thank God for that!

I do have recent mortgage experience though, and I used to be a mortgage loan officer so I can probably answer any questions related to that.

Right now the best deal you can get is 5% down on a 30-year fixed, assuming you have good credit. Rates are between 2.5% and 3.25%. Back when I was selling loans, the rates were 5-7% so this is pretty amazing. House prices have roughly doubled in the last 24 months, and we may very well likely see a housing market crash in the next couple years, but I suspect it will be a temporary correction, and I do not see a long-term decline in the cards.

I think anyone with money is trying to find any safe place they can to put it right now. And I think houses are the best option in many people's minds so for as long as supply is constrained I think there'll be some measure of insulation from a big crash. Anything that comes on the market sells quickly and I think that would be true even in a dip right now. The family getting kicked out will still suffer of course, but it will sell.

If you were in the market for $250k houses before, now those same houses are a half mil. Still worth it in my mind, because I think inflation is going to make up for that in short order. I think even given the inventory shortage and inflated prices it's still a good time to purchase a house, provided you have some runway in savings in case the job market shits itself (which I think is very plausible).

PL, but I have a mortgage and am actually close to the point I could pay it off. I have deliberately kept some back to pay for home improvements as a mortgage is one of the best interest rates you can get on a loan. Still, I do wonder if I should just put those back and pay it off. Mortgage free would be a whole new phase of life for me that I honestly am not sure what I'd do with. It's possible that in the new year if I wanted to I could take out a mortgage and buy a second property. Not sure how I'd feel about that. I'd probably ping @TheRedChair and ask for tips on how to be a landlord that actually provided a service rather than a parasite. But it's academic for now.

 

[Hippopatumus]

There is no way I would buy an investment home after the CDC declared its mandate to regulate housing policy. Too much risk IMO. "Progressive" policies are not going away and there is a number of them that can harm real estate investors. Plus you are entering into a market with competition like Blackrock. Hard pass from me. I looked into it for a while, as my wife was working on a "SoDaSoPa" type project and the neighborhood was projected to balloon in value. It did, but I'm still glad I didn't buy anything.

I would definitely look at buying land assuming the carrying costs of the property taxes worked out for the time period I was looking to hold. I have a buddy with a thousand acres in western kentucky and the land pays for itself and then some as he leases portions of it out to be farmed.

 

[Still Anonymous For This]

I would definitely look at buying land assuming the carrying costs of the property taxes worked out for the time period I was looking to hold. I have a buddy with a thousand acres in western kentucky and the land pays for itself and then some as he leases portions of it out to be farmed.

I have a friend who leases about 300 acres for agricultural purposes that I hunt on. He bought it back in the 70s for pennies on the acre and is making pretty great cash off the leasing rights.

 

[Cedric_Eff]

There is no way I would buy an investment home after the CDC declared its mandate to regulate housing policy. Too much risk IMO. "Progressive" policies are not going away and there is a number of them that can harm real estate investors. Plus you are entering into a market with competition like Blackrock. Hard pass from me. I looked into it for a while, as my wife was working on a "SoDaSoPa" type project and the neighborhood was projected to balloon in value. It did, but I'm still glad I didn't buy anything.

I would definitely look at buying land assuming the carrying costs of the property taxes worked out for the time period I was looking to hold. I have a buddy with a thousand acres in western kentucky and the land pays for itself and then some as he leases portions of it out to be farmed.

New Town type projects are always a nightmare.

Is that a serious answer? Because I'm genuinely seeing an insane amount of demand right now. I always knew the principle of "lower interest rates to raise demand" but I've never seen it in practice to this degree. I hope people can pay them.

I’m being dead serious. These old ass people always have a shit ton of debts. When they die, it’s always rare to see if they don’t have any debts of some sort.

House full OF furniture. I bought furniture in an uncollateralized loan. Not a house. No deposit though.

I do have recent mortgage experience though, and I used to be a mortgage loan officer so I can probably answer any questions related to that.

Right now the best deal you can get is 5% down on a 30-year fixed, assuming you have good credit. Rates are between 2.5% and 3.25%. Back when I was selling loans, the rates were 5-7% so this is pretty amazing. House prices have roughly doubled in the last 24 months, and we may very well likely see a housing market crash in the next couple years, but I suspect it will be a temporary correction, and I do not see a long-term decline in the cards.

If you were in the market for $250k houses before, now those same houses are a half mil. Still worth it in my mind, because I think inflation is going to make up for that in short order. I think even given the inventory shortage and inflated prices it's still a good time to purchase a house, provided you have some runway in savings in case the job market shits itself (which I think is very plausible).

That’s the big issue with some places in America is the fact the job market is always shit.

 

[Freshly Baked Socks]

I’m being dead serious. These old ass people always have a shit ton of debts. When they die, it’s always rare to see if they don’t have any debts of some sort.

I think you overestimate the number of broke boomers (or ignore the rich ones).

I am accustomed to seeing them try to spend as much of their life on vacation as possible, so that after 2 years of quarantine - I am not surprised that they are busting at the seams to spend cash any way possible.

Alternatively I am not surprised that their children, suddenly flush with inheritance, are unable to consider saving/investing wisely.

Covid is a wonderful redistributor of wealth, in many ways.

 

[northstar747]

I think you overestimate the number of broke boomers (or ignore the rich ones).

I am accustomed to seeing them try to spend as much of their life on vacation as possible, so that after 2 years of quarantine - I am not surprised that they are busting at the seams to spend cash any way possible.

Alternatively I am not surprised that their children, suddenly flush with inheritance, are unable to consider saving/investing wisely.

Covid is a wonderful redistributor of wealth, in many ways.

Lol they do like to spite their children by spending their inheritance.

But also lets say you have a boomer couple that had 2-3 kids, a paid off house and a modest amount of investments/savings.

the kids will want an estate sale, they will want the house sold and everyone will want their fucking check.

Oh wait their parents took out a reverse mortgage, dad had a super awsome collection of consumer bullshit? mom like collectable plates?

hahahahaha

Intergenerational wealth is fucking hard

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

Intergenerational wealth is fucking hard

Because American's don't generally care for their family, and as a society have such a warped perspective on how money works they leave nothing for their kids. Doesn't really matter if you have a nice 401k nowadays anyways, between inflation, and the high likely hood of paying for end of life care most of it will be eaten up before you even hit the dirt.

 

[northstar747]

Because American's don't generally care for their family, and as a society have such a warped perspective on how money works they leave nothing for their kids. Doesn't really matter if you have a nice 401k nowadays anyways, between inflation, and the high likely hood of paying for end of life care most of it will be eaten up before you even hit the dirt.

All true...but.

I can give you a personal example.

Lets say 30 plus years ago some family members go in on a some real estate, a strip mall and a little apartment building.

people get older, get married have kids. The KIDS are a big one. All of a sudden what was 2-3 relatives that grew up with eachother is doubled by having spouses that arent blood. Then you have kids which are really fucking costly.

Are you gonna tell your spouse or your own kids "hey we need to do with out"?

People start looking for money, competing for it.

The value of that real estate has gone up. Sure it makes a nice LITTLE income but all it takes in one of the three original family members to say Fuck I could have have 1/3 of 1.5 million thats alot of money vs their 1/3 of net rents.

Never mind the fighting over how much to spend to improve or maintain the properties.

about 4 years ago this family had a falling out and are tied up in court. over those building because one of them "wanted out" aka he wanted his fucking money. In the 4 year since that shit started we ve seen the value of those propties almost double so if him and his stupid wife had been able to force a sale it would have been bad timing.

Granted this idots are just giving their kids inheritance to the lawyers but what ever.

To put a thesis on this, I compare it to having land and farming the money younger people want to build an empire older people wanna sell out. plus money and inter family politics is fucking hard.

 

[Techpriest]

I don't know much about anything but in Bongland you can't seem to find any kind of house or building work for love or money. Want work done on a kitchen, bathroom, house survey, plastering - anything of that nature - and you'll run into wait times of 2-5 months. Everyone is run off their feet with work in the building trade and related. What I want to know is where all the money is coming from for this? It's not supply problems, not in the UK. It's demand. How are so many people finding the money to get their houses done up or buy and renovate new ones? After all the economic hits of Covid, I'd expected demand to be depressed from lower income. WHERE IS IT COMING FROM?

The demand is about the same, what’s gone down is the supply of workers - people are shifting around jobs globally.

EDIT:

This is also what's causing inflation in general. There's baseline inflation that happens, and then there's companies jumping at the chance to increase profit margins, speculators going absolutely nuts, people suddenly having more money to spend (and spending it) and all that, which also drives inflation up. Incomes haven't really gone down - they've gone up, especially as people have gotten back to work, often in different jobs. So work places that don't raise wages suddenly lose workers, and struggle to find more. Those that raise wages often then raise prices - because they want to maintain their profit margin (which is a bit nuts at the moment honestly, the margin that many companies run on is rather wide, they can afford to narrow it a bit and still pay workers without raising prices. But that doesn't look good to shareholders so that doesn't happen) and places that offer harder work for the same pay lose workers, like construction industries. So less people want to get into construction, which means that construction is in high demand with little supply of workers.

Then add in supply chain snaggles, and you understand why things went nuts. It's a combo of greed, supply and demand, and opportunism from everyone. Gotta love capitalism and free markets - they don't always behave rationally. Just selfishly.

 

[Cool Dog]

If I owned a house right now I would sell it and move to middle of nowhere. Run solar power and buy a few years worth of food.

Nigger you're getting what, 6%? 7% inflation? thats nothing, we have 50% here and the country still hasnt collapsed

Shits gonna suck more than usual, you'll get poorer, thats all

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Turkey Halts All Stock Trading As Currency Disintegrates, Central Bank Powerless To Halt Collapse (archive)

YTD the currency has lost more than half of its value!

The resulting sell-off accelerated a 54% plunge in the currency so far this year as real rates fall further below zero with inflation now standing at an annual 21.3%.

And then, a stunning new development: as Bloomberg reports, all trades on Turkey’s benchmark stock index Borsa Istanbul 100 were halted after a sudden plunge in stocks - which until now were trading gingerly higher as one would expect in a time of runaway inflation - triggering a market-wide circuit breaker.

Coming soon to a theater near you.

 

[Cool Dog]

Welcome to the argie experience

 

[Rezza]

Turkey Halts All Stock Trading As Currency Disintegrates, Central Bank Powerless To Halt Collapse (archive)







Coming soon to a theater near you.

Wasn't the Turkish economic problem caused by Erdogan absolutely refusing to listen to any economic advise from economist, and refused to increase the interest rate and even continues to cut it? On top of many other reasons

 

[Ahriman]

Pretty good video

He's also made a similar video about the (((Federal Reserve))), can't recall which one is it, but it's just as much of a blackpill as this one.

 

[Simple Moving Average]

Wasn't the Turkish economic problem caused by Erdogan absolutely refusing to listen to any economic advise from economist, and refused to increase the interest rate and even continues to cut it? On top of many other reasons

Also, yes. However, when you are starving, does it really matter how you got there?

 

[Rezza]

Also, yes. However, when you are starving, does it really matter how you got there?

Because the people might have to blame the condition on someone? Or a charismatic/influential enough person might want people think to blame their misfortune on someone else

 

[Stoneheart]

Coming soon to a theater near you.

Thats bad, but turkey is Value town right now. alot of USD and EUR Bonds of all kinds are doing fine.
got some nice Company bonds with less than a year to go, alot of companies do most of their business outside of turkey while paying their workers in worthless lira, so no big risk and the lira puking only makes it safer.