Catching up, look at this methodology:
To examine that, I looked at precinct-level data for Fulton County and the four Republican counties that border it and no fraud has been alleged: Carroll, Cherokee, Coweta, and Forsyth.11The idea is a simple one: compare Trump’s share of absentee ballots in precincts adjacent to each other on opposite sides of a county border. The comparison is made between precincts in Fulton and these four other counties as well as between precincts in these four counties where they are adjacent each other. Comparing a county were fraud is alleged to ones without alleged fraud is simpler than comparing counties where there might behard-to-specifyvarying degrees of fraud.
Precincts adjacent to each other on opposite sides of a county border should be relatively similar demographically. In one case, Fulton County precinct ML02A matches up with four different precincts in Cherokee County (Mountain Road 28, Avery 3, Union Hill 38 and a small portion of Freehome 1
.12The goal is to compare the precincts of Fulton county that are most similar to precincts nearby counties that had no allegations of fraud, in order to isolate the impact of Fulton county’s vote-counting process (including potential fraud).
Pittsburgh is in Allegheny county. Atlanta is in Fulton county. Now why might precincts within these counties differ from precincts outside of these counties in terms of who voted for what?
This can also not be explained by the general shift in which Democrats were more likely to vote absentee, because the precincts being compared are matched up by location (differing primarily in terms of which side of the county line they lie on) and thus expected to be very similar.
let me guess, this guy scratches his head real hard when someone suggests that westchester might vote very differently from the bronx. He repeatedly trots out this "just across the street" language to suggest that they should be identical, you can take a look at
these voting precincts to get a pretty solid idea of why that looks like a crock of shit. Oh yeah, a river between a suburb and the city; just across the street!
Allegheny I can speak to more directly. If you are comparing Allegheny to Beaver, Butler, Washington, and Westmoreland, you are fucking retarded. Allegheny is a little different from Fulton, because it absorbs most of the suburbs around it (Fulton absorbs a few, looks like). So in this case, the guy is comparing suburban/exurban precincts with rural ones. GEE.
To top it off, the paper fails to definitively even allege fraud. The paper essentially takes all claims of fraud at face value - its citations reference court cases and judiciary hearings
where the Trump team alleges something and just takes it as having necessarily happened. Its argument is that "
if this happened because of fraud, then it is why Biden won." He cites a LOT of testimony hearings that have failed to go anywhere, a lot of his own papers, and a lot of cases of fraud that were proven in other countries: "Fraud can happen!" he says, hoping from there we assume "Fraud did happen!"
It dabbles in the fun of assuming no-one checks your sources, links to this ballotpedia analysis of rejected absentee/mail-ins, and ignores that Georgia had a 3% reduction in absentee/mail-in rejections between 2016 to 2018, a reduction that continues from 2018 to 2020... while Alaska also sees around a 2.25% reduction in rejections.
