Marathon 2025 - Bungie's new AAAA Extraction shooter

[jje100010001]

I can at least appreciate that the (partially-copied) artstyle is uncompromising and visually distinct, though I expect it to last around 5 minutes if the game catches on, before cosmetics and gooner bait start to get injected into it.

 

[creaturestorm]

Highguard only lasted 45 days, how long do you think not-Marathon has?

I think it comes down entirely to how they handle the live service part of the game.

Halo infinite started in a pretty good place, it was just kinda boring with not a lot to do and it stayed that way for too long. They also ignored player feed back until it was too late. 10 year game lasting only 5.

 

[Professor Donger]

Something insane that no one has mentioned is that the game runs on 60hz servers, which is a pretty good tikrate for an fps. Lower tikrates lead to shit like dying around corners which was something I didn't notice happening all that much during the server slam.

Ironically it happens a lot in Arc Raiders but their server tikrate is 20hz

Fucking Tarkovs tikrate is 12 or 16hz

The Crucible in Destiny 2 runs on 30hz, Destiny players shafted again kek

I think it comes down entirely to how they handle the live service part of the game.

Halo infinite started in a pretty good place, it was just kinda boring with not a lot to do and it stayed that way for too long. They also ignored player feed back until it was too late. 10 year game lasting only 5.

Yeah it's going to depend on how fast they patch the game and listen to feedback, as well as do things like events and so on.

If the team can do a Destiny 2 and patch the game every week or every two weeks it should be fine.

This is Bungie though, they're known for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory

 

[Rodeo Roadrunner]

they confirmed a new map in June and new task with no need to retread old stuff.

No it isn't a new map, it is Dire Marsh just a nighttime version of it. They are bragging about adding a (fake) day/night cycle into their game, something that Tarkov has done for many years, and I believe Arc Raiders had at launch. And the absolute GALL to call the season "Nightfall", deliberately mocking Destiny players over them removing Nightfalls.

Genuinely, Bungie is notoriously bad with introducing new maps in pvp. Destiny went YEARS without a new pvp map. You think they can actually make more than 1 new map a year in Marathon? They can't bring in more pve enemies than a screeb and some Cabal, much less make new maps. "New tasks" wow new variations of 'go collect 5 leaves' and 'walk into this spot on a map'. Really pushing the boundaries of innovative game design and quests in extraction shooters here.

 

[creaturestorm]

No it isn't a new map, it is Dire Marsh just a nighttime version of it

A night time version of a map that's known for incredibly long sight lines having no visibility? Yeah definitely same ol same.

Tarkov maps also dont really have events. Things arent happening. It's the same static spawns, same static loot, same static boss fights. Tarkov 's day or night cycle just causes you to lower or raise the contrast, it's a giant nothing burger. Bungo is alluding to having altered that and not just turning the lights off. Rotations, movement, and meta will change keeping shit fresh.

 

[>IMPLYING]

All these developers seem to think that Tarkov doing account wipes was "part of the genre" and just proves how the industry is full of midwits. The entire reason Tarkov did inventory and progress wipes is because Tarkov was still in beta. They wanted a reason for players to use the new things they added or to try out something that was adjusted instead of relying on their old faithful with a massive stockpile of resources. Of course, when you mention that Tarkov, the game that "inspired this tentpole of the genre", moved away from bi-annual wipes to a permanent character system with it's 1.0 release, you get retards sperging out.

That shit was my #1 deterrent to ever try that game.
What's the point of trying to get shit if you know you're going to lose it?
If Hunt Showdown ever did this I'd just kill myself.

Hyperbole aside, I have one acquaintances who expresses some fondness for this game. The only reason I'd want it to fail personally is Bungie, Sony, and the AAA game industry deserve it and it'd be just as funny as when it happened to Concord and Highguard,

Highguard only lasted 45 days, how long do you think not-Marathon has?

This is a AAA studio/Bungie. If it has more than 40k players then they'll just do what 343 did with Halo Infinite and the MCC and keep it on life support forever with occasional skin releases to break even on development costs before sunsetting and just keeping the servers switched on.

I think the number of people playing on Steam might settle somewhere along these numbers observed in the playtest.

Somewhere between 50-80k players. That might be a pessimistic outlook or an optimistic one depending on your perspective. I try to be neutral but given I hate Bungie for going from Halo to live service slop I still hold a grudge, so maybe I'm just refusing to consider the possibility this is going to be a major success with Arc Raider's monthly numbers and a modest one instead.

I see the start and end of this graph are outliers. The dips usually represent when Americans are in bed or working so the last dip I write off. The peak was release day so I write that off too.
Another factor to consider is this was free (I think) which might favour higher numbers.


TLDR: 50-70k monthly Steam players if the number of buyers mirrors my observation of the graph. This is similar to Destiny 2's playercounts on Steam.
Its success on console is a major thing to account for to.
If I had to be majorly pessimistic, I think it'll land somewhere between 10-30k monthly players. This is based on Halo Infinite's campaign launch, going from 270k to 147k from free to paid. Subsequently Halo Infinite lost half its monthly players every month after launch.
Majorly optimistic 60-80k monthly players.

The main thing is whether the game is viewed as a "success" or not and how quickly they start phoning it in. I don't think it'll mirror Concord or Highguard but I don't think it'll be a major smash hit. Cue, "Marathon: What happened?" videos within less than a year if the player count drops consistently below 20k.

 

[creaturestorm]

What's the point of trying to get shit if you know you're going to lose it?

I'm really not sure, youre going to lose it in a run or two any ways. Nothing is permanent even with out the wipes. The white tier guns really aren't that much more effective than the gold stuff, it's the shell abilities that are bonkers.

It seems to me that they are trying to tell the story of the game through the tasks. Completing tasks builds rep with factions and unlocks further tasks with those factions. Your player power comes from your reputation standing with those factions. When your repuation gets reset your going to want rebuild your reputation and so your going to want to do the new tasks.

This might be the considered the worlds longest unskippable cutscene, if I'm correct.

This is a AAA studio/Bungie. If it has more than 40k players then they'll just do what 343 did with Halo Infinite and the MCC and keep it on life support forever with occasional skin releases to break even on development costs before sunsetting and just keeping the servers switched on.

I'd be personally fine with this out come assuming the game gets more content before it happens, 4 maps does not make a game. I still play the MCC on occasion as well as infinite, doesnt bother me none. Though people here estimate that this would be the end of bungie, that this has to do phenomenal in sales, so this shit could shut off in a few months even if it was moderately successful.

 

[Jace on ice]

Highguard only lasted 45 days, how long do you think not-Marathon has?

Significantly longer because Destiny fans have absolutely no standards and love the slop.

This one already has a built in audience of retards.

 

[JohnWick]

Halo infinite

If they launched with matchmaking playlists, more maps, forge, custom game browser they might have retained a much larger player base. I played a ton last year because it actually feels like a complete package. Most people will probably only remember the stripped back version from launch. No one gets excited at the idea of playing the same shit for 10 years on a slow drip feed besides executives in a boardroom so that goes to show how out of touch they are.

I get a similar vibe with marathon in that it literally feels like a barren waste land walking simulator shell of a game with no content. No campaign either, if they put even a fraction of the money and effort into a campaign as they did their cinematics they might have something interesting.

 

[Professor Donger]

That shit was my #1 deterrent to ever try that game.
What's the point of trying to get shit if you know you're going to lose it?
If Hunt Showdown ever did this I'd just kill myself.

I think a wipe can be terrible if the game wasn't designed with it in mind and your community didn't want it.

Tarkovs community on launch as an example wanted to know if they'd continue to do wipes every so often to shake things up.

Hunt can't nonvoluntary wipes because the entire point of the game is to build up your arsenal for hunts, and you also level to unlock everything compared to Marathon, Tarkov or Arc where everything is found in game.

One thing people forget about a wipe that is kind of important though is it prevents stagnancy from setting in. Like I said earlier in the thread people can get bored of doing nothing but taking in their best gear and shitting on Timmy's everyday.

Even Hunt got like that sometimes which is why it gave you the option to prestige.

Most Tarkov players love wipe days because of the shake up it provides, and Marathon could do the same if each wipe leads to massive shake ups in the game, such as new weapons and so on.

 

[ScurvyRat]

Most Tarkov players love wipe days because of the shake up it provides,

Ah yes I loved the "shake up" of hour long queue times, disconnecting constantly, login queues and losing my entire stash to back end errors

 

[Professor Donger]

Ah yes I loved the "shake up" of hour long queue times, disconnecting constantly, login queues and losing my entire stash to back end errors

Those sucked yes but I'm mainly talking about the gameplay loop along with finding out what was new in the game.

It gave you an excuse to visit maps you normally wouldn't after you've established yourself in the game a bit.

Like I know people who would avoid anything but interchange and labs after they got high enough gear wise. Wipes kind of forced the player base to go back and play some of the other maps which helped with their population

 

[creaturestorm]

No one gets excited at the idea of playing the same shit for 10 years on a slow drip feed besides executives in a boardroom so that goes to show how out of touch they are.

For sure, no one wants the bare minimum with a drip feed.

Most Tarkov players love wipe days because of the shake up it provides, and Marathon could do the same if each wipe leads to massive shake ups in the game, such as new weapons and so on.

I'm a tarkov player, it's not that we like the shake up it's just that the mid to late game part of Tarkov is legit aids. You need to be jobless and autistic to truly enjoy it.

You spend more time in your stash accounting and preparing for all possibilities or eventualities than you do actually playing the game. Half of all your runs end in you dying anyways, losing your kit, failing the task, and ending up back to your stash.

With the early wipe you have way less to worry about. You just need to show up with what ever you have and start blasting other hobos for what ever garbage they have.

Worrying about meta builds, ammo types, weapon durability, armor penetration, etc etc... Not so much a thing. Just hit ready and go again.

 

[>IMPLYING]

I'm really not sure, youre going to lose it in a run or two any ways. Nothing is permanent even with out the wipes. The white tier guns really aren't that much more effective than the gold stuff, it's the shell abilities that are bonkers.

It seems to me that they are trying to tell the story of the game through the tasks. Completing tasks builds rep with factions and unlocks further tasks with those factions. Your player power comes from your reputation standing with those factions. When your repuation gets reset your going to want rebuild your reputation and so your going to want to do the new tasks.

This might be the considered the worlds longest unskippable cutscene, if I'm correct.

I know you're gonna lose it, but I mean what's the incentive to try and get out with it at all if it's inevitable you'll lose it in the future? If the inevitable outcome of getting gear is eventually losing the gear, you may as well get rid of wipes, but that's just my logic. It's one of those little niggles that just keeps me away for some reason. Arc Raiders does a similar thing with tasks requiring specific items, though no rep system I think.

I'd understand wanting to avoid players just maxing out new content because they've inexplicably hoarded the necessary item to max new reputation thresholds, but I'd much rather they just drop a new item in or something. Or make it a choice, like prestiging. You reach tier 1, but if you want tier 2 you have to make the decision to reset rep and re-build it again. Something vaguely in that direction.

I'd be personally fine with this out come assuming the game gets more content before it happens, 4 maps does not make a game. I still play the MCC on occasion as well as infinite, doesnt bother me none. Though people here estimate that this would be the end of bungie, that this has to do phenomenal in sales, so this shit could shut off in a few months even if it was moderately successful.

>4 maps does not make a game
More than launch Hunt Showdown. I still got an uncomfortably high number of hours in it lmao

I think they probably have content ready in advance to help maintain the illusion of live service, because if you're doing one you should at bare minimum give players the impression you're actively working on it. It's when the pre-made, pre-prepared content is all released and doesn't result in any player count bumps that working on the game at all looks like a pointless drain of resources since it's not bringing in any new players. Sure, whales exist, but Bungie would still have to be outputting content solely for their benefit and it might not even be enough to cover the salaries of those making the content itself unless it's, like, a dozen guys at max.

A live service game that's been reduced to solely outputting skins, emotes, or other customisable crap in lieu of actual content (guns, maps, characters, enemies, etc) is pretty much dead as far as development's concerned imo. There are weird outliers though.

Overwatch is a game I'm convinced should be dead considering its reputation yet it's still releasing swathes of content, apparently. The stable playercount of Overwatch was 50k monthly players so maybe that's the barometer to compare against.

(Some sort of re-brand is responsible for the spike. It's falling though)

I don't see this game killing Bungie, even if it fails.

Sony paid 3.6 billion to effectively increase its own value by 3.6 billion + whatever "hypothetical" future value Bungie can bring them. Bungie was bought because of its prestige but also its purported skill at making live service games. Every multiplayer game that becomes a success under Sony's label is effectively attributed to the acquisition of Bungie now regardless of Bungie's role, that's the mindset people in charge/invested of/in Sony have now, whether they think it's true or not. Helldivers 2 might be the reason Bungie is still alive, absurdly.

So scuppering Bungie without gradually allowing it to destroy itself, or get vaguely absorbed into another subsidiary, means that value goes kaput. Suddenly Sony is worth 3.6 billion fewer dollars, decreasing value and pissing off shareholders.

Destiny 2 is also a somewhat consistent revenue stream that brings in yearly income and companies love that shit. It's why every big publisher tried their hand at an MMO once. Marathon bombing meanwhile could kill Bungie's ability to ever make new games again, confined to pumping out Destiny 2 slop forever until Sony makes back its investment.

 

[creaturestorm]

I know you're gonna lose it, but I mean what's the incentive to try and get out with it at all if it's inevitable you'll lose it in the future?

Some stuff you just cant buy so you want to cling on to it for as long as possible, that's your incentive to make it out with it. The problem is if you actually play with those kits you are going to lose them, its just a matter of time and thats where a lot of the tension and excitement comes from.

There is no sense in hording gold and purple items in your stash, it exists to be used and lost. You gain nothing from it collecting dust. This applies to all extraction shooters.

If the inevitable outcome of getting gear is eventually losing the gear, you may as well get rid of wipes,

I agree with you, I think the reason they are doing is what I explained above. They are forcing you to interact with their storyline,

More than launch Hunt Showdown. I still got an uncomfortably high number of hours in it lmao

I've only played a little of Hunt, I couldn't properly get into it. I think it had 2 maps when I played? I wish extraction shooters would borrow Hunt's sound traps, Marathon does a little of it.

A live service game that's been reduced to solely outputting skins, emotes, or other customisable crap in lieu of actual content (guns, maps, characters, enemies, etc) is pretty much dead as far as development's concerned imo. There are weird outliers though.

I think that's basically LoL

 

[big pauper]

in tarkov, the wipes existed because the game was in open beta and players figured out how to exploit the inventory system multiple times. It's not a consequence of some kind of planned out meta-game, in fact that's kind of the biggest weakness of Tarkov is that Nikkita is a fat retard who has no clue how to balance a video game. Tarkov is marked by a continued problem where things are added or changed to solve a specific balance issue but the second and third order consequences of that change are significant but completely ignored, sometimes to the point of obsoleting the entire mechanic. you don't need wipes if you make some kind of money sink that ensures that people stop hoarding millions of roubles but the entire game isn't balanced around that it's balanced around the whims of a russian manchild

 

[Professor Donger]

in tarkov, the wipes existed because the game was in open beta and players figured out how to exploit the inventory system multiple times. It's not a consequence of some kind of planned out meta-game, in fact that's kind of the biggest weakness of Tarkov is that Nikkita is a fat retard who has no clue how to balance a video game. Tarkov is marked by a continued problem where things are added or changed to solve a specific balance issue but the second and third order consequences of that change are significant but completely ignored, sometimes to the point of obsoleting the entire mechanic. you don't need wipes if you make some kind of money sink that ensures that people stop hoarding millions of roubles but the entire game isn't balanced around that it's balanced around the whims of a russian manchild

Oh definitely, I'm just saying that Tarkov kind of benefited from the stupidity at least a little.

I do agree that Marathon probably doesn't need wipes and could have just done a prestige system or made selling gear more lucrative to do etc

 

[Honored guest]

I just can't get over how fucking ugly this game is, large patches of pastel colors just vomited on the ground randomly, the BRIGHT COLORS IN YOUR FACE ALL THE TIME EVERYWHERE. I can't imagine playing for long periods of time, it'd probably hurt your eyes.

 

[Professor Donger]

Game is live though steamdb hasn't updated with player number yet.

I know twitch doesn't matter but it is the 4th most watched game on twitch currently so there's that

Edit: I lied it's sitting at 2k so far but that doesn't mean anything, it'll take a few hours for the numbers to stabilize. We'll probably have the 24hr peak numbers around 3pm when people start getting off work.

And then like before we'll have to see how the game declines

 

[>IMPLYING]

Game is live though steamdb hasn't updated with player number yet.

I know twitch doesn't matter but it is the 4th most watched game on twitch currently so there's that

Edit: I lied it's sitting at 2k so far but that doesn't mean anything, it'll take a few hours for the numbers to stabilize. We'll probably have the 24hr peak numbers around 3pm when people start getting off work.

And then like before we'll have to see how the game declines

Current time UTC

Current players:

Grand slam player counts around comparable time.


So it could have almost a 1:1 ratio of grand slam players to launch players. We haven't seen the peak counts which is usually at 21:00 UTC

I don't know what was going on at 3AM UTC on the 28th but it's an outlier.


Give it 3 more hours then we'll know the peak count for sure. Might be 65k?
Then we have to see what the day 1 launch to day 2 difference is.