You're basically saying the pollsters shouldn't be trusted on predicting the election, and then turning around and saying they should be when they ask a question about which candidate is more trusted on economic matters.
Let me tell you an old fart story:
Once upon a time there was a President who led a very successful military campaign in the Middle East, and enjoyed sky high approval numbers and global admiration because of that.
Then the economy went to shit, and he was soon replaced by a womanizing Saxophone player from Arkansas.
Am I wrong in my prediction? Sure, I could be. I'll happily deal with the boomer jokes if I am. I'm just saying "it's the economy stupid" has stuck in my head all these years.
The election you mentioned had a strong third-party candidate, had an incumbent whose approval rating within his own party was pretty low, and it showed in his party's primary (where the opponent got 23% of the vote), and NAFTA was a huge issue in that election.
Meanwhile, in this election, Trump gets a record-breaking 18 million votes in an uncontested primary (basically a formality), has an approval rating within his own party that's actually higher than Reagan's in 1984. Trump's rallies draw in tens of thousands of voters (a good portion of them aren't even registered Republicans, and a good chunk of those haven't voted in the past several elections or so).
I agree that election is also based on "it's the economy stupid" and that benefits Trump. Biden hasn't offered an alternative besides approving a nationwide lockdown if the scientists recommend it, which is just plain anathema to the average American voter.
Also, where does this BS about COVID being a millstone on Trump come from? Majority of Americans do not blame Trump for COVID. They blame China, and they know that the economy was doing very well under Trump until China's Wu Flu hit. Majority of Americans are angry at China, not at Trump. And since Biden is seen as the candidate that's most favorable to China, then that means Biden isn't going to win this election. Period.
Biden is going to win and that will be apparent on night one as he wins Florida outright and possibly NC as well (if not NC will be in 2C2C status-still not good for Trump.)
Lmao, Democrats are doing horribly in North Carolina and Florida in early voting. Trump wins both of those states easily. But you're probably being sarcastic, heh.