Only 53% of Bernie Sanders voters will definitely support 2020 democratic nominee if he doesn't win

Only 53% of Bernie Sanders voters will definitely support 2020 democratic nominee if he doesn't win

NewsWeek Article (Archive)

Only a small majority of Bernie Sanders voters say they will definitely support the eventual Democratic nominee at the 2020 election if the independent Vermont senator does not win the race, according to a poll.

The National Emerson College Poll of 1,128 registered voters between January 21 and January 23 found that 53 percent of Sanders supporters said "yes" when asked if they would support the Democratic nominee even if it is not their candidate.

Another 31 percent of Sanders supporters said it depends on who the nominee is and 16 percent flat-out said no. The poll, conducted via landline calls and an online panel, has a 2.8 percentage point margin of error.

The poll suggests some Sanders supporters are out of step with their own chosen candidate on the question of supporting the Democratic nominee regardless of who it is.

"Let me be clear: If any of the women on this stage or any of the men on this stage win the nomination—I hope that's not the case, I hope it's me—but if they do I will do everything in my power to make sure that they are elected in order to defeat the most dangerous president in the history of our country," Sanders said at the recent Iowa debate.

By comparison to Sanders, 87 percent of former vice president Joe Biden's supporters said yes to voting for whoever wins the nomination, 9 percent it depends on the winning candidate, and 5 percent said no to anyone that is not Biden.

And 90 percent of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren's supporters said they would vote for whoever is the nominee, while the remaining 10 percent said it depended on who won the nomination.

None of Warren's supporters said they would not vote for the eventual nominee if she loses the Democratic race.

According to the Emerson poll, Biden is the narrow frontrunner in the primary race at 30 percent followed by Sanders in second at 27 percent. Warren polled at 13 percent.

Below the top three was tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 8 percent, billionaire Michael Bloomberg at 7 percent, and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg at 6 percent.

Emerson noted that since its last national poll in December, Biden has lost 2 points, Warren gained 1 point, Buttigieg lost 2 points, Sanders and Yang each gained 2 points, and Bloomberg gained 3 points.

"If Bloomberg continues to gain support it could come at Biden's expense, which could create a pathway for Sanders to the nomination," said Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement.

"On the other hand, Yang is pulling votes away from Sanders with younger voters and this is a very interesting age dynamic."

The Democratic contest's opening Iowa caucus is coming up on February 3 and kicks off the primaries season. The winner will formally receive the Democratic party nomination for the 2020 election at its national convention in mid-July. The next presidential election takes place in November.

A recent poll by SurveyUSA found that, of all the prominent Democratic candidates, Sanders leads Trump in a face-off by 9 points, the widest margin. The poll found that 52 percent of voters would choose Sanders and 43 percent Trump.

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16% saying flat-out no as well. What the fuck Democrats.
 
Bernie Sanders appeals to "the youth" because reee college debt and a generation conditioned to accept socialism as "good".

Clearly there aren't...wait...

Why do all of these polls only collect data from fractions of fractions of the available voterbase of America? It's amazingly easy to skew polls any which way because of this.
 
They already prepare the ground for blaming Bernie bros for losing. Also imagine thinking that people owe another candidate their votes due to supporting a different candidate on the same side.
That's the only reason that the media ever allowed him this bump. It wouldn't be a very credible narrative to blame the loss on someone who hadn't even ever been in the lead.
 
I only a personal anecdote of mine. Bernie came to UC Davis during the 2016 democratic primary season and managed to get a large crowd with Tulsi also showing up as well. When I went to go vote in the primaries back then for bernie, the voting station was like a ghost town filled with old ladies manning it. That is the power of the youth vote turnout, jackshit. I don't even know if a federal holiday will solve it if people can't do it when they just in school and its not like they need a hall pass to leave the classroom.
 
The poll, conducted via landline calls and an online panel
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They already prepare the ground for blaming Bernie bros for losing. Also imagine thinking that people owe another candidate their votes due to supporting a different candidate on the same side.

They feel entitled to votes and will likely lose their usually guaranteed votes as they become more deranged.
 
Bernie Sanders appeals to "the youth" because reee college debt and a generation conditioned to accept socialism as "good".

Clearly there aren't...wait...

Why do all of these polls only collect data from fractions of fractions of the available voterbase of America? It's amazingly easy to skew polls any which way because of this.

You can also wind up with bad statistics with a large sample. How you collect the sample is at least as important as size. They're also specifically surveying Bernie supporters, not the entire voter base.

I'm not much of a Bernie supporter, but I'd be less annoyed about voting for him than most of the other candidates. One reason is that I don't think he'll get much done, which makes him a less stupid choice than Senator Tracy Flick who has a plan! because of course she does.
 
You can also wind up with bad statistics with a large sample. How you collect the sample is at least as important as size. They're also specifically surveying Bernie supporters, not the entire voter base.

I'm not much of a Bernie supporter, but I'd be less annoyed about voting for him than most of the other candidates. One reason is that I don't think he'll get much done, which makes him a less stupid choice than Senator Tracy Flick who has a plan! because of course she does.

The sample is of all voters not just Bernie (or even just Democrat voters). I do think the criticisms of small sample size are over played. However Emerson notes that this type of subsample analysis carries higher error margins than the aggrigate.

Emerson Poll Write Up said:
The National Emerson College Poll was conducted January 21-23, 2020 under the supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n= 1,128, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of gender, education, age, ethnicity, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n= 741) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n= 387).
 
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There's definitely going to be some votes for whoever wins the democratic vote from Bernie supporters just so they can stick it to orange cheeto Hitler. But when Bernie lost the 2016 primaries followed by the DNC leaks showing that they didn't want Bernie to win anyway, that was a huge blackpill for the left. The only reason they didn't go balls to the wall ballistic on social media was they still believed that Hillary was going to cruise to a victory.

It's 2020, Trump won instead, the 2016 election polls were incorrect, and the left is betting that Bernie will be the last thing to stop Trump from nuking the planet with climate change gasses. Bernie supporters are even more vocal and fired up than they were in 2016, so if Bernie loses (chances are he will) expect a salt storm that makes the DNC primaries of 2016 look like nothing.
 
What Democrats will see: "Bernie voters aren't even real Democrats! Eww! Don't nominate him!"
What sane people will see: "Bernie can bring in people who wouldn't normally vote for Democrats, why aren't they nominating him?"

Bloomberg jumped in to the race in full panic mode just to prevent a Bernie nomination. I'm sure it's safe to say that they're losing a chunk of their potential voter base whether they decide to go with him or not, and one group has way deeper pockets than the other.
 
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