It's Spielberg making a movie about his childhood. Of course it's aggressively Jewish, just like it was when Woody Allen did the same thing.
Pleased Maverick is in the running - it's great, it really is, and it's also a miracle it's as great as it is. Elvis was far too ADHD for me, but the lead guy was very good. The Banshees of Inisherin is also very strong, but if they're going to go bleak they'll go for All Quiet On The Western Front instead. Tár is impressive, but not the sort of thing that wins, and I think other films on the list are better. Cate Blanchett in it is the only real challenge to Michelle Yeoh for Best Actress, though - not that I've seen the other three, but if there's one award I'd be most certain about, it's that one, and it's very deserved. I'm hoping Everything Everywhere All At Once does really well, but I've only seen half the films, and The Fabelmans does have that 'film about films, film-making and filmgoing' thing going for it. Almost surprised they didn't nominate Babylon or Empire of Light for that reason - but to be fair, Babylon is only great for half of it, and then turns to shit.
The ceremony doesn't matter, especially after the last couple of years, but the Oscars themselves are still important. Frequently wrong, sure, another Hollywood wankfest, sure. But when any of these winners die, that's the title - '[x], Oscar Winner, Dead at [y].' They have influence, which isn't good but is true. If you can say one thing about the Will Smith slap, though, it's probably put a full stop to the black pandering they've done for the last two years, especially the ones after the Summer of Love. Their diversity has always been far more liberal anyway, where it counts just as much if the winner/nominee is asian, latino or really just foreign in any way, not just Bipoc pandering that has been the demand recently.
As a side-note, there's a really good scene at the start of Tár where Cate Blanchett's character is teaching, and this black guy who calls himself a pangender BIPOC says he doesn't like dead cis white guys like Bach, and she spends the next five minutes schooling him on his presentism and hypocrisy (not using those words) until he calls her a fucking bitch and storms out. It's a great representation of every 'discussion' you've ever had with an idpol-obsessed moron, from the starting condescending superiority, to the lack of facts to back anything up, to the flouncing and insults when their bullshit is exposed, and it's highly satisfying.
