Severe Weather outbreaks

[Justa Grata Honoria]

I feel like I have to once again caution against the posting of hypersensational outlooks and predictions.

Not to say, "It won't happen" since there seems to be plenty of consensus and indications that there could be some winter mischief across the US over the next week, and it is always a good idea to be prepared for inclement weather conditions (see the posters who've linked to winter prep advice and guides), but be sure not to jump at every YouTuber who doomposts about events that are a week or more out.

Weather prediction still isn't that exact of a science and these people tend to specifically hype these things up to generate traffic and revenue. Be prepared, yes, but don't hang off their every word

Nigger we are getting above zero up to 7-8c temps in Yr.no predictions. You are fucked . Every fucking time temps rise in Norway suddenly during winter means the polar vortex is going in your anus with no lube.

Prepare faggots

 

[mindlessobserver]

Models are showing the storm won't bomb out until it's off shore. Which means Coastal Virginia and North Carolina may get a haymaker, but the promised nor'easter won't materialize.

But things could change rapidly.

 

[#FF0000]

Got about 3-4 feet of snow over the weekend instead of 1-2 feet. Thankfully I haven't had issues with power, and the snow is beautiful outside. Hopefully the roads get cleared soon because they still haven't been yet. I don't think I'm getting any extra snow soon thankfully since any more will be a huge pain in the ass. Hoping everyone else is doing well.

 

[Sneedenhagen Chew]

Great Lakes blizzards always make me wish climate change was real so they'd finally stop happening.

 

[Nameless One]

Next week is going to be crazy. By Wedensday temperatures in North America will most likely be the coldest on record, with 50 weather stations showing the potential of setting records. Additionally, this arctic blast will also bring a major snow event from the central plains to the east coast, with the worst projections for the Midatlantic States of Virginia, Maryland and North Carolina. Some of the projections are wild, with 11 to 21 inches in some places like Richmond and Greensboro.

But wait, there's more! The System could become a Nor'easter and bring a blizzard to New England if it doesn't safely go out to sea.

Start preparing. You do not want to be assed out with no power in this. Make sure you have a back up heat source like Kerosene, wood or propane and enough food/water to stay in your house for a week. Especially if you are in a Mid-Atlantic State.

I thought global warming would make it hotter but it seems like a bunch of mumbo jumbo. Oh shit dark blue pierces through my general area and my house isn't insulated well... looks like I'm staying elsewhere.

 

[Tri-Tachyon'sClown]

Start preparing. You do not want to be assed out with no power in this. Make sure you have a back up heat source like Kerosene, wood or propane and enough food/water to stay in your house for a week. Especially if you are in a Mid-Atlantic State.

 

[Crypt Kicker]

It's been a tad colder where I'm at. -20 isn't anything to be surprised about in winter. It will effect the homeless population for sure, I don't even think there are any homeless shelters in the area.

 

[pikachudidnothingwrong]

Around 7 bucks a gallon.

Which is insane to anybody who knows how they make gasoline. It's one of the many reasons i HATE modern social, business and market "logic" on so many things.

 

[Stardust_Ziggy]

We definitely got some snow, but it wasn’t as bad as forecasted. It will be bitterly cold for the next few days though. I always get confused on letting my faucets drip; is it a slow drip or a faster trickle? I guess whatever I’m doing is correct, because I haven’t had a pipe burst (yet, knock on wood).

 

[Justa Grata Honoria]

Gotta ask how it's going? Oslo is getting 4 degrees in February that means the polar vortex is gone somewhere

 

[1Tonka_Truck]

Which is insane to anybody who knows how they make gasoline. It's one of the many reasons i HATE modern social, business and market "logic" on so many things.

Lots of kerosene gets used in the winter in the northern climes, anywhere ambient temps regularly drop below -10 ° F. See #1 diesel and blended #2. Kerosene has much lower power density than diesel so by they time we're burning straight #1 we're also using 30-40% more fuel for the same work.

 

[indomitable snowman]

saw this, a 90 degree temperature swing

source

https://x.com/ryanhallyall/status/1893333563187032210

 

[Return of the Freaker]

Relevant old craigslist personal from a&n post about a WA State funded jerk off club:

 

[1Tonka_Truck]

saw this, a 90 degree temperature swing

60° swing in 36 hours isn't unusual for the northern plains. It happens often enough 90° over 5 days just doesn't hit for me.

 

[#FF0000]

Day 6 Enhanced (30%) and Day 7 Slight (15%) risks are in effect. This is the 8th Day 6 Enhanced risk since 2014, and the earliest on record.

Spoiler: Forecast Discussion

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 271002
SPC AC 271002

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on
Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central
High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates
east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across
the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture
return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it
moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on
D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday
afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains.
Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with
continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level
moisture advection continues.

By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be
complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS
and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is
increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with
an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern
Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS
has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the
confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a
significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe
weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central
Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event
draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection
including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line
will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including
strong tornadoes.

...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast...
The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended
guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater
moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the
Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very
strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat
from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by
prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening
surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat
exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday.

..Bentley.. 02/27/2025

While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes.

Can't remember the last time they mentioned strong tornadoes being likely this far out.

The overall synoptic pattern is very impressive, and very powerful wind shear is consistently being forecasted/modeled. But, there's a notable lack of instability that the models are showing which may limit the potential severity. That'll likely change overtime though as higher resolution models come into range of the event.

I'll continue posting if anything interesting changes.

 

[Gravemind]

Hell yeah, time for the classic introduction to Spring.

 

[#FF0000]

Somewhat unrelated to actual ongoing weather, but DOGE has fired about 5% of NOAA's staff. The weather autists over on X have fucking lost their shit over it.

(Ryan Hall Y'all radar analyst and forecaster, post now deleted)

If you look up "NOAA", "NWS" or "#wxtwitter" on X anywhere you'll see a bunch of salt.
Personally I don't agree with the layoffs but it's not a huge deal, it is just 5%.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Somewhat unrelated to actual ongoing weather, but DOGE has fired about 5% of NOAA's staff. The weather autists over on X have fucking lost their shit over it.
View attachment 7036047
(Ryan Hall Y'all radar analyst and forecaster, post now deleted)

If you look up "NOAA", "NWS" or "#wxtwitter" on X anywhere you'll see a bunch of salt.
Personally I don't agree with the layoffs but it's not a huge deal, it is just 5%.

Probably went through those 5%'s social media.

 

[Gravemind]

Probably went through those 5%'s social media.

I don't know specifics, but NOAA employees on Twitter have been kind of retarded in the past.

 

[#FF0000]

I don't know specifics, but NOAA employees on Twitter have been kind of retarded in the past.

One of the lead forecasters for the Storm Prediction Center had a monumental meltdown after the election, said some crazy shit, deleted their X account and moved over to BlueSky.
She's a woman if you couldn't tell.