Severe Weather outbreaks

#FF0000 said:
One of the lead forecasters for the Storm Prediction Center had a monumental meltdown after the election, said some crazy shit, deleted their X account and moved over to BlueSky.
She's a woman if you couldn't tell. :smug:
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I have a feeling on who it might've been, but it's been so long since I last saw her Twitter that I forgot her name.
 
Gravemind said:
I have a feeling on who it might've been, but it's been so long since I last saw her Twitter that I forgot her name.
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Elizabeth Leitman/Wx_Liz. From what I've seen she is a decent forecaster but she suffers from being terminally addicted to social media and politics.
 
#FF0000 said:
Elizabeth Leitman/Wx_Liz. From what I've seen she is a decent forecaster but she suffers from being terminally addicted to social media and politics.
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Yep. That's the one I was thinking of. Figures. :story:

Always figured she was a bit too "heckin' wholesome" for a professional forecaster figure. That, and she'd sometimes hype up the chaser crowd a couple of days before a major forecast.
 
#FF0000 said:
Somewhat unrelated to actual ongoing weather, but DOGE has fired about 5% of NOAA's staff. The weather autists over on X have fucking lost their shit over it.
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(Ryan Hall Y'all radar analyst and forecaster, post now deleted)

If you look up "NOAA", "NWS" or "#wxtwitter" on X anywhere you'll see a bunch of salt.
Personally I don't agree with the layoffs but it's not a huge deal, it is just 5%.
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Wonder how many were DEI coordinators and people with titles like "senior assistant to the deputy vice-president of HR?" This is just as silly as when they tried to blame the DC plane crash on Trump cutting some FAA staff even though not a single one of them was air traffic controller.
 
Well, shit.


So, a Catagory Two or Three cyclone is nbd for many places in the world, who see much more powerful storms on a regular basis. However, it's very rare for cyclones to travel so far down the east coast of Australia. The last cyclone that hit Brisbane was 1992, and before that, in 1974. Many people in South East Queensland have been feeling a great deal of relief that we managed to get through summer without large scale flooding. Now Alfred has decided to drop by, and we're going to celebrate the start of autumn with... large scale flooding. Yay.
 
#FF0000 said:
Somewhat unrelated to actual ongoing weather, but DOGE has fired about 5% of NOAA's staff. The weather autists over on X have fucking lost their shit over it.
View attachment 7036047
(Ryan Hall Y'all radar analyst and forecaster, post now deleted)

If you look up "NOAA", "NWS" or "#wxtwitter" on X anywhere you'll see a bunch of salt.
Personally I don't agree with the layoffs but it's not a huge deal, it is just 5%.
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I don't know how or why the "WX community" got so fucking deranged, but I'll be damned if they aren't somehow even worse than most niche/hobby subgroups. Isn't Andy Hill the guy on Ryan Hall's livestreams that's constantly berating the NWS field offices for not throwing out a tornado warning polygon any time a small rotation couplet is visible for a single frame? If they're doing that poor of a job that some random internet asshole can spot tornadoes better, what's he so salty about? Ryan better come and get his man before he torpedoes his YouTube channel because the boomers who watch him covering a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma and ask shit like 'are we gonna have tornaders tonight in Maine???? are we safe???" aren't going to like unhinged "LE EVIL BLUMPF!!!" shit. Can't say I'm surprised by Andy Hill's deranged screeds, at one time in the background of his facecam he had a deliberately placed in frame troon flag. He's probably already squeezing down the autist -> incel -> troon pipeline as we speak.

Anyway, Tuesday is looking pretty sporty. Only enhanced risk for now but wouldn't be surprised if it got elevated into moderate, although whenever Reed Timmer is yammering on about "SUPER TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY" I tend to believe it will 'bust' and be thoroughly underwhelming. James Spann frequently talks shit on the social media "weathermen" who pump people up into total hysteria acting like every single enhanced risk day is going to be another 2011 Super Outbreak and he's about the only voice of reason when it comes to this shit. Where I live last year in April we had a moderate risk day and all of the typical social media retards were basically saying: "IF YOU LIVE IN [STATE] YOU MIGHT WANT TO FILL OUT YOUR LAST WILL AND TESTAMENT" with school canceled and some workplaces sending people home early. It didn't get all that rowdy, a few tornadoes and some power outages, nothing compared to the fucking surprise derecho in 2022 that absolutely pounded us in the ass.

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Hopefully it underperforms, that region has had enough weather shit.
 
#FF0000 said:
Elizabeth Leitman/Wx_Liz. From what I've seen she is a decent forecaster but she suffers from being terminally addicted to social media and politics.
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Just looking up her name tells you everything you need to know. Half of the links are "first woman to..." articles over something she did.. The rest are random with a few "woman of NOAA" stuff.

Green Man said:
I don't know how or why the "WX community" got so fucking deranged, but I'll be damned if they aren't somehow even worse than most niche/hobby subgroups.
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Because those communities spent the better part of the last two decades thought policing over climate change, using it as a litmus test for participation and then eventually even existence within the group/community. Which OC lead to opinion purity spirals, and thus attracted and distilled them down to the exact type of people as you'd think. I stopped paying any attention to weather related groups or fandoms about a 3rd of the way through this. When it became clear that almost every topic was going to revolve around or involve climate change hysteria and the politics.
 
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pikachudidnothingwrong said:
Because those communities spent the better part of the last two decades thought policing over climate change, using it as a litmus test for participation and then eventually even existence within the group/community. Which OC lead to opinion purity spirals, and thus attracted and distilled down to the exact type of people as you'd think. I stopped pay any attention to weather related groups or fandoms about a 3rd of the way through this. When it became clear that almost every topic was going to revolve around or involve climate change hysteria and the politics over it.
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Exactly. Look at June First's vid on the LA fires. "Acksually all the stuff about land and water mismanagement and government incompetence is heckin' misinformation! These fires were destined to happen because global boiling! Orange man bad!"
 
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Will it shape up like yesterday, where nothing happens, or will something actually happen for once?
The fact that global models have been consistently showing such an absurdly potent setup (extreme wind shear and instability) over a week ahead of this thing is quite phenomenal. If this sticks for another day or two I'd be legitimately concerned.
 
#FF0000 said:
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That thing is nine days out.
This is a big reason you ignore people like him, and leave the weather stuff to actual meteorologists. Yesterday even happened because brainrotted social media people overhyped it like a week away when meteorologists were like "its too far out right now to say anything, anything could change" and later then when its three days away: "it won't be a tornado event, just really bad storms that could pop a tornado or two". Everyone in the internet is trying to say "ummm im not a weatherperson but i can read this graph, therefore, this severe weather will be the tornado outbreak of 2008/11 again so write your wills and board up your house".
This always happens on entering typical spring schizo weather in America because they won't stop wanking those two events.
 
Aib Ld said:
That thing is nine days out.
This is a big reason you ignore people like him, and leave the weather stuff to actual meteorologists. Yesterday even happened because brainrotted social media people overhyped it like a week away when meteorologists were like "its too far out right now to say anything, anything could change" and later then when its three days away: "it won't be a tornado event, just really bad storms that could pop a tornado or two". Everyone in the internet is trying to say "ummm im not a weatherperson but i can read this graph, therefore, this severe weather will be the tornado outbreak of 2008/11 again so write your wills and board up your house".
This always happens on entering typical spring schizo weather in America because they won't stop wanking those two events.
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Shit, I didn't look close enough to see those models were for NEXT Friday. I thought it was unusual I wasn't hearing any stir about it.

You're absolutely right though. You generally can't trust models that far out, but that's never stopped what some like to call "weather weenies" from sperging for the last decade about whatever they happen to see on long range models because they REALLY want to get one forecast correct for... What, bragging rights, I guess? Clout?

I've never understood the mindset of these people. It's weird how obsessive they get over wanting to be right about a doomsday scenario-type of weather situation, because realistically they get nothing out of it other than "SEE? I CALLED IT." Especially not the ones who seem to WANT a super outbreak to happen.
 
Aib Ld said:
That thing is nine days out.
This is a big reason you ignore people like him, and leave the weather stuff to actual meteorologists. Yesterday even happened because brainrotted social media people overhyped it like a week away when meteorologists were like "its too far out right now to say anything, anything could change" and later then when its three days away: "it won't be a tornado event, just really bad storms that could pop a tornado or two". Everyone in the internet is trying to say "ummm im not a weatherperson but i can read this graph, therefore, this severe weather will be the tornado outbreak of 2008/11 again so write your wills and board up your house".
This always happens on entering typical spring schizo weather in America because they won't stop wanking those two events.
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Legitimately, people should stop paying attention to these hysterical fucking social media retards who agonize meticulously over every single model run from ten days out. Eventually people will get tired of the constant "OH THERE'S AN ENHANCED RISK, BETTER WATCH OUT ON SATURDAY GUYS IT'S GONNA BE ANOTHER 2011 SUPER OUTBREAK, WE MIGHT BREAK THE EF-5 DRY SPELL GUISE!" shit and just stop paying attention to the weather altogether. Looking at model runs even just six or seven days into the future is little better than reading fucking tea leaves, especially if you're just some swinging dick on social media. All Spring/Summer long, using week-out model runs: "THIS IS THE BIG ONE GUYS FUCK IF YOU LIVE IN THIS AREA YOU MIGHT AS WELL WRITE YOUR LAST WILL AND TESTAMENT AND TELL YOUR FAMILY THAT YOU LOVE THEM..." And then absolutely fucking nothing of consequence happens.

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I always like it when James Spann reads these morons the riot act and implores people to stop relying on or giving weight to "social media weathermen", some of these motherfuckers legit jerk themselves raw over the idea of an EF-5 hitting a city and flick their bean to videos of Joplin. The "WX community" is so fucking weird, seriously. One could probably make a community watch thread about the WX people. You've never seen a sorrier, weirder or more hysterical group of terminal autists in your life. WX subreddits are particularly bad although as of late they seem to be focused on bitching about the bad orange man rather than weather. Ryan Hall's live coverage is generally decent and he tends to pay attention to regions that most network meteorologists don't give a shit about but his thumbnails and titles are exactly what I'm talking about here. It's no wonder some people get fucking terrified when they're in a marginal risk or start hyperventilating over a garden variety summer thunderstorm that lasts five minutes and moseys on, most of the public pays little attention beyond those channels and doesn't know dick about weather. Some of the WX nerds seem to get turned on by the idea of "calling out" a storm in the future and being vindicated by watching some little town in Mississippi get flattened, they get disappointed when nobody dies and start bitching about how it was a bust.

I get it, tornadoes are neat and interesting but I would very much prefer if all of them just spun themselves out in a field somewhere. As soon as I saw the high wind risk area on one of the outlooks I was like: "welp, that'll be a big old squall line/QLCS so all of the people who masturbate to tornadoes killing people will be very disappointed."

Speaking of Spann, here's a true classic regarding these people:

 
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STOP FUCKING RAINING!

I moved to Queensland expecting endless sunshine. Instead, every year it rains more than the first two decades of my life combined. All this water falling endlessly from the sky is just unnatural.

 
Aib Ld said:
That thing is nine days out.
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...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity...

A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop
east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense
southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented
from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening.
Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift
northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity
through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this
low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support
rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding
quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern
will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from
late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning.

Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past
couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on
similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the
operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of
the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent
of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means
are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate
degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential,
the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an
all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night,
centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also
aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance.
Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key
features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture
return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming
days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities
will likely become necessary as well).

Tornado season is upon us!
 
glass_houses said:
STOP FUCKING RAINING!

I moved to Queensland expecting endless sunshine. Instead, every year it rains more than the first two decades of my life combined. All this water falling endlessly from the sky is just unnatural.
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Can the land of Oz send that rain up towards the south-west here, please? Share that desert rain with us.
 
#FF0000 said:
Not sure about Day 4, models have been a mess with it.
However, Day 5 is looking extremely potent.
There are some things that could limit the threat but at least a few strong tornadoes (or at least discrete supercells in the open warm sector) appear very likely.
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I'm wondering if a QCLS will come to steal the show again, limiting tornado probability. They did mention that being a scenario for one of the days if I remember correctly
 
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