Severe Weather outbreaks

Next Highlight
Tomorrow is not looking like a fun day to be in Louisiana or Mississippi.

Convective outlook:
1735375121259.png

Tornado risk:
1735375170669.png

Severe wind risk:
1735375189767.png

Hail risk:
1735375207037.png

And here's what Nadocast [found at https://x.com/nadocast] has to say about it:
1735375260366.png

So yeah Dixiebros might wanna batten down the hatches, charge any batteries and put the car in the garage tomorrow. They're also using some gnarly fucking verbiage in the actual forecast text.

Where I live we had a very much hyped moderate risk with verbiage about "many extremely strong, long-tracked tornadoes" be a dud on April 2nd of this year, but December outbreaks tend to be pretty wild. Hopefully it's just a dud this time too.
 
  • Informative
  • Horrifying
  • Like
Reactions: Coo Coo Bird, Local Fed, glass_houses and 4 others
Green Man said:
Tomorrow is not looking like a fun day to be in Louisiana or Mississippi.

Convective outlook:
View attachment 6795292

Tornado risk:
View attachment 6795295

Severe wind risk:
View attachment 6795296

Hail risk:
View attachment 6795297

And here's what Nadocast [found at https://x.com/nadocast] has to say about it:
View attachment 6795300

So yeah Dixiebros might wanna batten down the hatches, charge any batteries and put the car in the garage tomorrow. They're also using some gnarly fucking verbiage in the actual forecast text.

Where I live we had a very much hyped moderate risk with verbiage about "many extremely strong, long-tracked tornadoes" be a dud on April 2nd of this year, but December outbreaks tend to be pretty wild. Hopefully it's just a dud this time too.
Click to expand...
Ooh. It's felt like an oddly quiet December for once, up until lately. That can either be a good thing or trouble brewing at the last minute.

Guess this year's gonna end off on one of those "trouble brewing" notes. Hopefully it won't result in a Moderate or High come January 1st like what happened... What, last year, I believe?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Green Man
Moisture and instability is significantly overperforming what models were showing, and cloud breaks are present, which is creating more surface heating and instability for storms to tap into later when conditions are more favorable for stronger tornadoes.
There's still a few ways that it can flop and not produce much but it's becoming increasingly unlikely.
 
  • Horrifying
Reactions: Gravemind
1630z update, MDT risk expanded northward.
1735404070516.png

Here's an interesting part of the forecast discussion:
The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon
through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an
upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT
after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked
tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region,
with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing
mechanisms.
Click to expand...
If confidence increases by 2000z (in about 3 hours) in a more discrete mode, an upgrade to a HIGH (level 5/5) risk could be possible as it had been already considered. That would make it the third December high risk in SPC history and the first since 2002.
 
  • Horrifying
  • Informative
Reactions: Coo Coo Bird, Alex Hogendorp and Gravemind

Indie met David Reimer currently covering what appears to be, by his own words, a "significant severe tornado outbreak" in southeast Texas at this time.

A few minutes ago he seemed to have taken a moment to read stuff on the outlook and mumbled a very realistic likelihood that the risk goes High here in the next hour.

EDIT: Stream offline. He probably had a tech hiccup. In the meantime, chaser Jason Cooley's feed is still live.
 
Last edited:
  • Informative
Reactions: Coo Coo Bird
FatalTater said:
Even though I have not watched any weather videos today, YouTube keeps recommending things about the blizzards of 1977 and 1978.

😟
Click to expand...
For the past week, yt has been pushing endless videos on Cyclone Tracy. This Christmas was the fiftieth anniversary of her visit, so every man and his dog are making documentaries.
 
  • Like
Reactions: FatalTater
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back