Severe Weather outbreaks

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This HRRR run is one for the history books. Holy shit.
 

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#FF0000 said:
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This HRRR run is one for the history books. Holy shit.
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Those continuous popup clusters of relatively isolated supercells are the scariest part, and it doesn't get any less spooky that it eventually consolidates into two broken line segments with isolated clusters still present between them. That would leave those potential storms free to get as big and bad as they please without having to compete with one another, provided one or two of them don't just start eating their neighbors to become the dominant storm and strengthen further.

Still leaves me wondering if they won't maybe do a mid-day Day 2 upgrade to High at this point. In very rare cases I've seen the SPC update the outlooks off-schedule usually for risk upgrades and expansions if they deem it necessary.
 
Gravemind said:
Still leaves me wondering if they won't maybe do a mid-day Day 2 upgrade to High at this point
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I think it's likely. The next Day 2 update is in 2 and a half hours, so we'll see by then.
 
1741973689297.png

Holy shit they actually fucking did it. Third Day 2 HIGH risk in SPC history.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF MS/AL...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf
Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous
significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and
potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening.
The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern
Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon,
spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western
parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night.

...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley...
After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level
5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of
potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and
evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat
eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat.

An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through
the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough.
This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially
slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great
Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will
yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should
be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late
morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming
air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the
deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its
northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection.

Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer
will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across
eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with
strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should
support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will
strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a
tornado outbreak.

The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective
outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL
and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored
corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely
develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing
large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle.
A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will
support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall
spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of
boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume,
along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up
from late D1/early D2.

Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and
destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night.
Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is
anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly
favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue
with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind
favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern
Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast.

...OH Valley to central Great Lakes...
Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential
north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree
of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough
and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly
widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day
Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based
instability appears highly questionable within a predominately
meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime
though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night
will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado.

..Grams.. 03/14/2025
 
A tornado-driven high risk - a 30% chance of a tornado within 25 miles covering Birmingham, Jackson and Tuscaloosa.
 
#FF0000 said:
1741973689297.png

Holy shit they actually fucking did it. Third Day 2 HIGH risk in SPC history.
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There it is.

Now I want everyone to keep in mind that risk area delineations don't necessarily indicate where the storms, or even particularly the WORST storms, will be on the day, hour, or even minute of. There's been a fair number of cases where Moderate and High areas remain relatively tame while the nastiest storms occur in the Enhanced, Slight, or even Marginal areas. Ultimately, this is all still guessing at where the greatest risk of severe weather will be. The probabilities, however, DO indicate what kind of weather can be expected out of these systems, and because this is the first High risk of the year, the first High risk in quite some time, and, particularly, the first High risk on a Day 2 outlook in SEVERAL years (as we've previously discussed), this is something you should be taking very seriously if you or anyone you know lives in the affected areas.
 
Gravemind said:
Snip
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Pretty much beat me to the punch. Just because you're in a high risk doesn't mean it's guaranteed. You can be in a hatched area and see nothing, not even a drop of rain. But still, a 2% is not a 0%.

I still remember that one time in a few months ago, Philadelphia got a tornado warned storm despite not being under a tornado risk. Wonder if that was someone undershot the SPC graph, stupidly rare freak incident, or a classic Philadelphia moment.

Possible RIP to that one section of GA, Atlanta, and Minnesota. Hope you guys survive Mother Nature's wrath.
 
STLNiggers and DixieFags remember that modern tornado warnings usually mean there is a supercell or squall line headed your way. Make sure you have a safe spot ready to go. Consider community options available to you. Tornado emergencies, on the other hand, are dire circumstances. Your life is in danger and you need to get to shelter immediately. Shelter underground if possible. If you can't get underground, shelter in a room central to your house: small closet, bedroom, or bathroom. Stay away from exterior walls. Have a tard helmet on standby or cover yourself with a mattress if possible.

Remember: Tornado watches are grandma coming home with sugar, eggs, butter, and flour. Tornado warnings are cookies going into the oven. Tornado emergencies mean you're eating cookies.
 
Gravemind said:
Warnings typically mean the cookies have left the oven and are being served up. Emergencies mean the cookies are HUGE and are causing explosive diarrhea.
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Well, NWS is very trigger-happy with warnings these days, at least in my neck of the woods. I've been through dozens of warnings in my adult lifetime that haven't seen tornadoes actually produced. Warnings used to be a big deal before the advent of more sophisticated prediction models because they were declared due to a spotter calling in a tornado on the ground. Like I said, warnings are now declared based upon radar, which doesn't always mean a tornado is actually happening and on the ground.
 
BattleMage said:
Well, NWS is very trigger-happy with warnings these days, at least in my neck of the woods. I've been through dozens of warnings in my adult lifetime that haven't seen tornadoes actually produced. Warnings used to be a big deal before the advent of more sophisticated prediction models because they were declared due to a spotter calling in a tornado on the ground. Like I said, warnings are now declared based upon radar, which doesn't always mean a tornado is actually happening and on the ground.
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There's 4 types of tornado warnings now.
Radar Indicated, meaning a tornado can form but isn't confirmed.
Radar Confirmed/Spotter Confirmed, meaning a tornado is confirmed to be on the ground. Sometimes it's wrong but 95% of the time it is correct.
Particularly Dangerous Situation, meaning a strong tornado is confirmed to be on the ground.
Tornado Emergency, meaning a violent tornado is confirmed to be on the ground heading into populated areas.
 
BattleMage said:
Well, NWS is very trigger-happy with warnings these days, at least in my neck of the woods. I've been through dozens of warnings in my adult lifetime that haven't seen tornadoes actually produced. Warnings used to be a big deal before the advent of more sophisticated prediction models because they were declared due to a spotter calling in a tornado on the ground. Like I said, warnings are now declared based upon radar, which doesn't always mean a tornado is actually happening and on the ground.
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As @#FF0000 explained, Tornado Warnings are still a big deal – enough that the FCC REQUIRES all local news stations and radio broadcasts to drop EVERYTHING they're doing and focus on covering the warnings, and this applies for EVERY type of Tornado Warning. You usually see them get "trigger happy" with radar-indicated rotations and couplets in situations with poor visibility (potential tornado producing storm is rain-wrapped and thus, near impossible to identify visually, or it's nighttime), and it's one of those cases where you're better safe than sorry.

Remember, these warnings don't happen specifically for the purpose of scaring you and your community – they happen for your safety. If a storm gets warned, you take your safety precautions, but nothing happens, that's perfect. If something DOES happen, though, it will have been infinitely better for you to have been in cover than not.
 
Hate to PL a bit, but Mr. Slump and I are within the high risk area, the only people that are taking this seriously here are the ones that were around for the 2011 outbreak. I have friends still wanting to go through with plans this weekend expecting this to be another nothingburger. Godspeed fellow Southern kiwis, see you on the other side.
 
It's so fucking windy today we got big rigs tipping over no storms coming but the sky has been all gray and then yellow today
 
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