Severe Weather outbreaks

Almost a quarter of the entire USA is currently under a Red Flag Warning.

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Certain places, like central Florida and parts of Iowa/Illinois, seem to be experiencing "high fire danger" or critical fire conditions as opposed to just standard red flags. I'm not entirely sure what the differences between those and regular red flags are besides worse conditions, but it doesn't sound fun either way.
 
Anonitolia said:
Almost a quarter of the entire USA is currently under a Red Flag Warning.

View attachment 7103309

Certain places, like central Florida and parts of Iowa/Illinois, seem to be experiencing "high fire danger" or critical fire conditions as opposed to just standard red flags. I'm not entirely sure what the differences between those and regular red flags are besides worse conditions, but it doesn't sound fun either way.
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All that basically just means is no burning/fires and be careful how you put out your cigarettes outdoors, because the conditions are ideal for wildfires from any otherwise negligible source.
 
Anonitolia said:
Almost a quarter of the entire USA is currently under a Red Flag Warning.

View attachment 7103309

Certain places, like central Florida and parts of Iowa/Illinois, seem to be experiencing "high fire danger" or critical fire conditions as opposed to just standard red flags. I'm not entirely sure what the differences between those and regular red flags are besides worse conditions, but it doesn't sound fun either way.
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OK was having fires Friday when we had those crazy winds. That day must've been the windiest day of my life we get plenty of storms with high winds but never like that where it's all day long
Getting off work that night the sky was all gray looked like something out of a videogame
 
Anonitolia said:
I'm not entirely sure what the differences between those and regular red flags are besides worse conditions, but it doesn't sound fun either way.
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Generally critical fire weather involves all the normal Red Flag conditions plus 1 and 10 hour fuels below 10% moisture.
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Extremely impressive damage to a foundation from the Diaz, AR EF4+ tornado.
Also, the Tylertown-Bassfield, MS tornado was upgraded to an EF4. That's a total of 3 EF4 tornadoes so far from the outbreak.
 
#FF0000 said:
View attachment 7094041
VIOLENT TORNADO HEADED TOWARDS THE ST. LOUIS METRO!!!
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I fuckin flew over that.
The lightning from the air was like a crazy strobe light. Made the flight bumpy and like 40 minutes longer too as they tried to fly around it as much as possible. I even saw a "transient luminous event" or "upper atmosphere lighting" (had to look that up) of blue jets going up from the clouds to the sky.
 
indomitable snowman said:
I fuckin flew over that.
The lightning from the air was like a crazy strobe light. Made the flight bumpy and like 40 minutes longer too as they tried to fly around it as much as possible. I even saw a "transient luminous event" or "upper atmosphere lighting" (had to look that up) of blue jets going up from the clouds to the sky.
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Did you get to see the actual tornado from above? Because that sounds impossibly badass.
 
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There's a severe thunderstorm in near-freezing (33F) temperatures that moved through Minnesota and now Wisconsin, and has been going for nearly an hour.
0 CAPE, near-zero lapse rates.
This shouldn't even be physically possible. What the fuck?
 
#FF0000 said:
View attachment 7148758
View attachment 7148759
There's a severe thunderstorm in near-freezing (33F) temperatures that moved through Minnesota and now Wisconsin, and has been going for nearly an hour.
0 CAPE, near-zero lapse rates.
This shouldn't even be physically possible. What the fuck?
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I would say maybe wind driven, but the fact that there's visible precip that pronounced (with what looks like it COULD be a hail core) on radar despite the near freezing conditions is just a massive anomaly.
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It's been long enough that I don't totally remember how to read these, but, with what little I remember, it looks like a portion of the upper atmosphere is JUST barely warm enough to accommodate this activity, I GUESS. As always, Mother Nature does what the fuck she wants.

Just before posting, I looked up the weather in the area and
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So it is a hail event that prompted this.
 
Gravemind said:
I would say maybe wind driven, but the fact that there's visible precip that pronounced (with what looks like it COULD be a hail core) on radar despite the near freezing conditions is just a massive anomaly.
View attachment 7148805
It's been long enough that I don't totally remember how to read these, but, with what little I remember, it looks like a portion of the upper atmosphere is JUST barely warm enough to accommodate this activity, I GUESS. As always, Mother Nature does what the fuck she wants.

Just before posting, I looked up the weather in the area and
View attachment 7148824
So it is a hail event that prompted this.
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Yeah, just about a kilometer above the ground, temperatures are maybe in the 50s, which is still very cold but perhaps just barely enough for an elevated thunderstorm in some cases.
The other thing is, there's no CAPE and no effective inflow layer, and there's a massive capping inversion which would prevent anything from rising more than a couple hundred meters off the ground. I guess the only way this could've happened is some smaller scale bullshittery that we can't accurately measure/forecast alongside a very specific series of events.
 
The next week will be very interesting.

Tomorrow is currently an enhanced risk with a 10% tornado risk and much wider 30% wind/hail areas
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Monday is currently a slight risk extending from upstate NY to the Gulf coast. The Day 4-8 Outlook has a small 15% area centered around Kansas City on Tuesday. That's typical for that far out if the models come in agreement. But then Wednesday will be interesting:
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EDIT: The Day 5 blurb from the outlook:

Day 5/Wednesday, a widespread, potentially substantial severe event
remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with
respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of
the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the
degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% risk area will be
depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% area is being introduced
from Arkansas northeastward to the mid Ohio Valley. It appears that
the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very
large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during
the afternoon and evening hours.
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Big nasty line of wind and hail producing storms out there in the midwest US today.
Watch yer ass if they're nearby.
 
Wednesday is still on track for a major event in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. SPC is predicting mainly supercells with significant tornadoes likely
 
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