- Joined
- Dec 10, 2023
Pay attention to it. The floods in your area could be generational.
Severe Weather outbreaks
- Thread starter Meat Target
- Start date
Smyrna
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2024
12Z Nadocast shifts the highest potential for today north and east, to SE Missouri and far-southern Illinois;
For tomorrow, the output suggests a very broad hatched area, with a decent chunk of it at 15%;
NEW: The 14Z, which uses the old '2020' model, is basically the SPC's forecast on steroids - a much larger area of 30% and a small area of 45% with central AR as the bullseye;
For tomorrow, the output suggests a very broad hatched area, with a decent chunk of it at 15%;
NEW: The 14Z, which uses the old '2020' model, is basically the SPC's forecast on steroids - a much larger area of 30% and a small area of 45% with central AR as the bullseye;
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- Joined
- May 27, 2021
Poor Arkansas just can't catch a break this season. This is like, what? The 4th or 5th time they've gotten smacked right in the middle of a moderate or high risk so far?
Smyrna
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2024
There are currently 5 supercells with tornado warnings attached in east Texas, including one where the tornado has been observed.
So either the area of highest risk is further west than expected, or it's going to be one of those days.
NEW: The first PDS warning of the day for a tornado that has gone right through the middle of Clarksville, TX.
So either the area of highest risk is further west than expected, or it's going to be one of those days.
NEW: The first PDS warning of the day for a tornado that has gone right through the middle of Clarksville, TX.
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- Joined
- Jul 18, 2019
Without powerleveling too hard, I was in the possible path of three separate tornadoes on Wednesday. Shit was terrifying. Basically spent 3 hours in my basement. Cops were out screaming at people on the street to get indoors.
And now there's more possible today.
oh fuck me
And now there's more possible today.
oh fuck me
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- Joined
- Jun 1, 2020
(Red is winds moving towards the radar, green is winds moving away from the radar – this is indicating broad, significant rotation. If that rotation tightens further, it could produce a very significant tornado.)
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- Joined
- Jul 14, 2022
I don't wanna doxx myself but I managed to sleep through a tornado pretty close by this week I think Saturday is gonna be worse temperature is supposed to drop
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2023
Thankfully no tornadoes (at least strong ones) appeared to hit Arkansas tonight, although a few strong tornadoes did somewhat unexpectedly strike northeast Texas. Severe weather should continue on the 5th (today/tomorrow) and may still affect parts of southern Arkansas, as well as parts of the deep south for the next day or two. Nothing compared to Wednesday thankfully.
- Joined
- Dec 21, 2019
Dammit man, no sooner do you say that does Little Rock get hit with a combo flash flood/tornado warning. Nothing confirmed though, luckily.
Smyrna
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2024
I am glad that the risk for yesterday's event was generally further west than expected as opposed to the entire risk area being underplayed.
The 0Z Nadocast for the event expected later today (not the one finishing up over eastern AR);
The risk has shifted east from yesterday's 12Z, and remains somewhat more bullish than the current SPC forecast.
NEW: The 12Z is similar, but with a smaller area of 15% risk;
The 14Z, which runs on a different set of models, is far more bullish and further back to the west;
Meanwhile, the SPC has added an area of moderate risk for today which includes Memphis, TN.
The 0Z Nadocast for the event expected later today (not the one finishing up over eastern AR);
The risk has shifted east from yesterday's 12Z, and remains somewhat more bullish than the current SPC forecast.
NEW: The 12Z is similar, but with a smaller area of 15% risk;
The 14Z, which runs on a different set of models, is far more bullish and further back to the west;
Meanwhile, the SPC has added an area of moderate risk for today which includes Memphis, TN.
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- Joined
- Jul 18, 2019
Tornadoes north of me last night again.
Another round of sirens today. I'm pretty used to these kinds of storms and have seen a tornado before but I'm not really used to four days straight of this.
Another round of sirens today. I'm pretty used to these kinds of storms and have seen a tornado before but I'm not really used to four days straight of this.
- Joined
- May 23, 2024
It's actually the giant coronal hole on the sun that's currently facing us which the jews created through their satanic acts at CERN.
NIGGA IM NUTS!
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2023
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2025
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2015
How historic is what we’re seeing in the Queensland floods? It’s hard to grasp the full magnitude
This weather event has not been seen on this scale since European colonisation. Why has it happened now?
When Dorothea Mackellar wrote of flooding rains more than a century ago, she couldn’t have anticipated anything on the scale of the current deluge in Queensland.
The downpour, which began as a lingering low-pressure trough topped up by rain from ex-Tropical Cyclone Dianne, has dumped a phenomenal amount of water on to outback towns and cities, inundating homes, cutting access to communities and causing stock losses in excess of 150,000.
The resulting floods – the boom in the boom-bust cycle that characterises this arid landscape – have filled dryland rivers and expanded across wide and flat plains, reaching a scale not seen since European colonisation.
“It’s covering flood plain areas that haven’t been inundated in European memory,” she says, although evidence from soils and fish genetics suggest floods of this scale have happened before.
Inland flood waters are expected to take weeks, or even months, to move downstream into South Australia, towards Kati Thanda–Lake Eyre.
Kati Thanda’s river catchment spans 1.2m sq km – more than a seventh of the Australian landmass – including parts of Queensland, South Australia, the Northern Territory and New South Wales. Rainfall and river flows are extremely variable, fluctuating between long dry periods and sporadic rainfall.
According to flood gauges, the enormous body of water has surpassed the 1974 event, widely considered the largest flood in Queensland history. But it was still sitting within the floodplain, Sheldon says, just “reaching the edges” of where people thought it would go.
This was a natural phenomenon, Sheldon says, even though the devastation experienced by towns and communities was awful.
“The beauty of these river systems is that they are some of the last unregulated rivers in the world. What we’re witnessing is just rivers being rivers. There are no big dams on these systems. There’s no massive irrigation industry. So this is just what big rivers do.”
The skies briefly cleared this week before the remnants of ex-Tropical Cyclone Dianne brought further rain to already sodden areas.
Rainfall records have tumbled across the state.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, broad areas of western Queensland received up to four times their March average rainfall. In four days – from 23 to 26 March – parts of southern and south-western Queensland had more than their annual average rainfall.
The airport at Winton, Australia’s dinosaur capital, recorded 158mm on 26 March, 56mm higher than the previous daily rainfall record for March. A day later, 177mm fell at Dillalah station, off the Mitchell Highway about 700km west of Brisbane, breaking its record by 31mm. The pastoral lease received so much rain throughout March – 417mm in total – it nearly doubled its monthly rain record.
The bureau said the Paroo, Bulloo, Cooper and Thomson catchments recorded their biggest floods in 50 years.
The lingering trough, together with ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, resulted in the state’s third-wettest March.
Dr Andrew King, an associate professor in climate science at the University of Melbourne, says when low-pressure systems drew air down from the north, it tended to be warm and moist, creating perfect conditions for heavy rainfall.
Flooding in northern Australia during the wet season isn’t uncommon, he says, although it is unusual to see multiple exceptional flooding events.
While winds generally move weather systems across the country, King says sometimes low-pressure systems linger and get “kind of stuck in place for a while” if there is a high pressure system nearby. “If the systems hang around for long enough, then the flooding tends to be worse.”
There isn’t yet conclusive evidence about whether climate change is contributing to these stationary events, he says, although it is something researchers are looking into.
Climate change is increasing the amount of moisture the air can hold, which can lead to heavier rainfall.
More moisture in the atmosphere created the conditions for higher rainfall, which could spread further across a flat landscape, he says.
“More volume of water … means we’ve got greater areas that have been impacted,” Macintosh says, all amplified by growing populations, farming and industrial activities.
Governments are improving their disaster management capabilities, but he says more early warning and monitoring systems will reduce potential flood damage. Engineers can help, he says, by drawing on rainfall, flood gauge and river flow data and using mapping to better forecast the expected timing and depth of flood events.
The “great big creeping mass of water” is moving at a walking pace, Sheldon says. But once it reaches Kati Thanda – in weeks or months – it will probably fill the lake, a rare event that only occurs a few times each century. “We’re looking at something pretty unique,” she says.
As the flood waters progress, wetting soils and filling up rivers and wetlands, nutrients and invertebrates will provide a ready food source for fish and waterbirds.
“A lot of those floodplain soils contain eggs of small invertebrates, the zooplankton that hatch when they get wet. There’s an instant boom of this incredible food source for fish, and they’ll just be out there feasting and growing and breeding again and making the most of it.”
When the water finally reaches its destination, brine shrimp would hatch from the salty sediment providing food for millions of waterbirds.
“It’s not just Kati Thanda that will boom. All these wetlands will be covered in water birds and be covered in fish and be booming as well,” she says. “It’ll be spectacular.”
Petra Stock
Sun 6 Apr 2025 06.00 AEST
The resulting floods – the boom in the boom-bust cycle that characterises this arid landscape – have filled dryland rivers and expanded across wide and flat plains, reaching a scale not seen since European colonisation.
How exceptional was the flooding?
Griffith University professor Fran Sheldon, a river ecologist specialising in dryland river systems, says the floods were “massive” and “probably at the extreme end of the boom”.“It’s covering flood plain areas that haven’t been inundated in European memory,” she says, although evidence from soils and fish genetics suggest floods of this scale have happened before.
Inland flood waters are expected to take weeks, or even months, to move downstream into South Australia, towards Kati Thanda–Lake Eyre.
Kati Thanda’s river catchment spans 1.2m sq km – more than a seventh of the Australian landmass – including parts of Queensland, South Australia, the Northern Territory and New South Wales. Rainfall and river flows are extremely variable, fluctuating between long dry periods and sporadic rainfall.
According to flood gauges, the enormous body of water has surpassed the 1974 event, widely considered the largest flood in Queensland history. But it was still sitting within the floodplain, Sheldon says, just “reaching the edges” of where people thought it would go.
This was a natural phenomenon, Sheldon says, even though the devastation experienced by towns and communities was awful.
“The beauty of these river systems is that they are some of the last unregulated rivers in the world. What we’re witnessing is just rivers being rivers. There are no big dams on these systems. There’s no massive irrigation industry. So this is just what big rivers do.”
So much water, where did it all come from?
About two weeks ago, heavy and relentless rain started falling across normally dry inland areas of Queensland as a slow-moving trough dragged tropical moisture inland.The skies briefly cleared this week before the remnants of ex-Tropical Cyclone Dianne brought further rain to already sodden areas.
Rainfall records have tumbled across the state.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, broad areas of western Queensland received up to four times their March average rainfall. In four days – from 23 to 26 March – parts of southern and south-western Queensland had more than their annual average rainfall.
The airport at Winton, Australia’s dinosaur capital, recorded 158mm on 26 March, 56mm higher than the previous daily rainfall record for March. A day later, 177mm fell at Dillalah station, off the Mitchell Highway about 700km west of Brisbane, breaking its record by 31mm. The pastoral lease received so much rain throughout March – 417mm in total – it nearly doubled its monthly rain record.
The bureau said the Paroo, Bulloo, Cooper and Thomson catchments recorded their biggest floods in 50 years.
The lingering trough, together with ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, resulted in the state’s third-wettest March.
Dr Andrew King, an associate professor in climate science at the University of Melbourne, says when low-pressure systems drew air down from the north, it tended to be warm and moist, creating perfect conditions for heavy rainfall.
Flooding in northern Australia during the wet season isn’t uncommon, he says, although it is unusual to see multiple exceptional flooding events.
While winds generally move weather systems across the country, King says sometimes low-pressure systems linger and get “kind of stuck in place for a while” if there is a high pressure system nearby. “If the systems hang around for long enough, then the flooding tends to be worse.”
There isn’t yet conclusive evidence about whether climate change is contributing to these stationary events, he says, although it is something researchers are looking into.
Climate change is increasing the amount of moisture the air can hold, which can lead to heavier rainfall.
Could we have been more prepared?
Dr John Macintosh, a water engineer and former National Committee on Water Engineering of Engineers Australia chair, says that in inland rural Australia, infrastructure such as dams, levees or diversions do little to reduce the impact when such huge volumes of water are involved.More moisture in the atmosphere created the conditions for higher rainfall, which could spread further across a flat landscape, he says.
“More volume of water … means we’ve got greater areas that have been impacted,” Macintosh says, all amplified by growing populations, farming and industrial activities.
Governments are improving their disaster management capabilities, but he says more early warning and monitoring systems will reduce potential flood damage. Engineers can help, he says, by drawing on rainfall, flood gauge and river flow data and using mapping to better forecast the expected timing and depth of flood events.
Where to from here?
Most of the water currently sitting over Cooper Creek and the Georgina, Diamantina river systems will eventually make its way into Kati Thanda–Lake Eyre.The “great big creeping mass of water” is moving at a walking pace, Sheldon says. But once it reaches Kati Thanda – in weeks or months – it will probably fill the lake, a rare event that only occurs a few times each century. “We’re looking at something pretty unique,” she says.
As the flood waters progress, wetting soils and filling up rivers and wetlands, nutrients and invertebrates will provide a ready food source for fish and waterbirds.
“A lot of those floodplain soils contain eggs of small invertebrates, the zooplankton that hatch when they get wet. There’s an instant boom of this incredible food source for fish, and they’ll just be out there feasting and growing and breeding again and making the most of it.”
When the water finally reaches its destination, brine shrimp would hatch from the salty sediment providing food for millions of waterbirds.
“It’s not just Kati Thanda that will boom. All these wetlands will be covered in water birds and be covered in fish and be booming as well,” she says. “It’ll be spectacular.”
Petra Stock
Sun 6 Apr 2025 06.00 AEST
Archive
Cheese Balls
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2024
Not sure if historical stuff counts here, but on this day 96 years ago, the only F5/EF5 in Arkansas history destroyed all of Sneed, Arkansas.
R.I.P to the 23 Sneeders who perished.
Sources:
https://www.weather.gov/lzk/tor041029a.htm
https://stormtrack.org/threads/1929-04-10-sneed-ar.28111/
"Late on the afternoon of April 10th 1929, a tornado ranked as F5 (the maximum intensity on the Fujita scale of tornado intensity) struck northern Jackson County. This is the only F5 tornado ever documented in Arkansas. It has come to be known as the "Sneed Tornado". The death toll was listed as 23, with at least another 59 people injured. Some of the injuries were quite severe, including skull fractures." |
Sources:
https://www.weather.gov/lzk/tor041029a.htm
https://stormtrack.org/threads/1929-04-10-sneed-ar.28111/
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2023
Several significant, photogenic tornadoes touched down today in west Oklahoma and Texas, alongside gorgeous storm structure.
These were incredibly slow moving, low-precipitation and absolutely beautiful. No towns were struck, and likely no structures at all were damaged.
It's been a very long time since there's been a perfect storm chasing day like this in the plains.
(Pic 1) (Pic 2) (Pic 3)
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2021
Watching the thunderstorm light shows are by far the best thing about living in Texas. You can see to the horizon so even far off storms are a treat.
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2023
Coincidentally enough, Matador was struck by a likely EF5 tornado in a 0% tornado risk two years ago, but was controversially only rated an EF3.