Severe Weather outbreaks

Not sure if it counts as a major city, but an EF5 ran through the middle of Joplin in 2011.

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The 12Z Nadocast for today's outbreak is pretty much aligned with the SPC - a 10% hatched risk for most of southern AR including Little Rock.


The 12Z for Day 2 (4th April) is more bullish than the SPC, with a very broad area of 15% risk (SPC currently has none) and a dot of 30% at the tri-point between OK, TX and AR;

Nadocast250403DayTwo12Z.png
 
Everything around me looks fine. There are some down trees but other than that, things look pretty normal here. Lots of flooding though.

I know I got damn lucky, the tornado JUST missed us, thank God.
 
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Day 2 tornado-driven moderate risk issued for northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and west/central Arkansas. Very strongly worded discussion. I wouldn't rule out another high risk.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from
central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley
Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western
Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New
Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad,
strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into
Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower
tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm
front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at
the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR
border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should
be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some
2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially
EF3+).

...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas...
As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very
unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the
ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s
with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain
along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and
early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not
anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to
overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of
the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high
resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may
traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The
combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z
guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone
during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These
supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and
0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to
intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any
of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the
environment supports a tornado threat.

A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring
greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal
boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak,
but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with
minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete,
open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more
dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the
Day 1 timeframe.

...Missouri into the Ohio Valley...
Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther
northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into
western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development
are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared
environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of
storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay
along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat
with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to
the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind
gusts will be possible with any storms in this region.

...West Texas to Central Texas...
Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast
across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night
and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with
very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will
support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+")
early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and
orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level
trough.

..Bentley.. 04/03/2025
 
Where I live doesn't often get Tornados but its not unheard of either. I remember sitting at my home a couple of years ago, and its pretty windy and raining outside. Some thunder. When all of a sudden I start to hear this "whooshing" sound. When people say it sounds like a freight train, they really do mean it. That is exactly what it sounded like. Look out the window and the trees outside where all bending in different directions. Some were pointing north, others were pointing south. Knew exactly what was going on. The prevailing winds were pushing some trees one way, while the tornado was pulling others the opposite way.

First time in my life I actually ran into the interior bathroom.

Thankfully it wasn't fully on the ground. Did that about half a mile away and went for about a mile and half before going back up again. Only tore through some woods and a corn field. But damn that was eerie, and also pretty lucky on my part. Didn't even take the shingles off, but I did have to clear a whole bunch of sticks off the roof that got blown up there.
 
mindlessobserver said:
Where I live doesn't often get Tornados but its not unheard of either. I remember sitting at my home a couple of years ago, and its pretty windy and raining outside. Some thunder. When all of a sudden I start to hear this "whooshing" sound. When people say it sounds like a freight train, they really do mean it. That is exactly what it sounded like. Look out the window and the trees outside where all bending in different directions. Some were pointing north, others were pointing south. Knew exactly what was going on. The prevailing winds were pushing some trees one way, while the tornado was pulling others the opposite way.

First time in my life I actually ran into the interior bathroom.

Thankfully it wasn't fully on the ground. Did that about half a mile away and went for about a mile and half before going back up again. Only tore through some woods and a corn field. But damn that was eerie, and also pretty lucky on my part. Didn't even take the shingles off, but I did have to clear a whole bunch of sticks off the roof that got blown up there.
Click to expand...
There's a reason people call Tornados the Fingers of God.

They may not do anything at all or they may devastate a mile long stretch in the middle of downtown.

Just being in their proximity is awesome in the original sense of the word.
 
Catgirl Tyranid said:
There's a reason people call Tornados the Fingers of God.

They may not do anything at all or they may devastate a mile long stretch in the middle of downtown.

Just being in their proximity is awesome in the original sense of the word.
Click to expand...
Always wanted to actually see one fully on the ground. From a safe distance though. Its just one of those things that's pretty hard to cross off on the bucket list. You only get a days most warning at best that there could be an outbreak, and you have to haul ass to the area. Even then there is absolutely no guarantee where you end up will actually have one drop.

The best i've gotten was two "not on the ground yet" nado's, one while I was driving and the one that went right over my head. Though in the latter case I didn't see anything but the trees swaying like mad. The former though, ended up killing someone and injuring 3 others. So I guess in some respects I'm lucky and not unlucky. Most people don't even get that close by random in their lives, and if they do it doesn't usually end well for them.
 
mindlessobserver said:
Where I live doesn't often get Tornados but its not unheard of either. I remember sitting at my home a couple of years ago, and its pretty windy and raining outside. Some thunder. When all of a sudden I start to hear this "whooshing" sound. When people say it sounds like a freight train, they really do mean it.
Click to expand...
I haven't mentioned this ITT I don't think, but I actually had a tornado plow through my neighborhood during the March 14th-15th outbreak last month. While my neighbors said they heard the classic freight train sound, it was quite the opposite for me.

When I was in the basement with my family, there was a moment where all of our ears popped at the exact same time, and it became almost completely silent. The howling winds outside suddenly stopped, you couldn't hear the claps of thunder anymore, and even the electrical buzz of the lightbulbs in our shelter went completely silent (We still somehow had power at that point). I don't even know if I can describe it in a way that truly captures how eerie it was, it didn't feel real.

It turned out that it had only missed our home by no more than a few hundred feet. It damaged some of our neighbors' homes pretty badly, but ours was completely untouched. Some of our neighbors had their roofs ripped off, massive trees had been completely uprooted or split in half, and twigs were embedded in people's walls. Nobody was injured thankfully, but it's pretty terrifying to think that it was practically on top of us at one point.

ETA: Attempted to fix my shit grammar
 
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Today's first Nadocast is pretty much a match for the SPC's forecast, with the only notable difference being a blob of 30% tornado risk right in the middle of Arkansas.

Nadocast250404DayOne0Z.png
 
mindlessobserver said:
Per the weather channel, there were 29 confirmed tornados last night. 3 confirmed deaths so far.

View attachment 7171618

NOAA forecast for the next 48 hours makes for an interesting read. They are expecting the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers to possibly break some records for flooding.

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT
Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 03 2025 - 12Z Sat Apr 05 2025

...Life-threatening, catastrophic, and potentially historic flash flood event continues across the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South...

...A couple rounds of significant severe weather expected from the Mid-South west through the Ozarks and ArkLaTex with very large hail and strong tornadoes possible...

...Moderate to locally heavy snow showers expected for the Rockies, with some snow showers spreading eastward into the High and Northern/Central Plains...

...Well above average, very warm Spring temperatures to end the week across the Southeast with numerous record-tying/breaking highs possible...
Click to expand...
It’ll be interesting to see if they blow the levee again.

For reference in 2011 the river got so high they activated a deliberate spill zone at Birds Point MO and flooded about 300 square miles of land

 
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During Wednesday’s storms there were 2 confirmed tornados close to us, the NWS still hasn’t determined what their strengths were yet. No one was hurt and no homes were destroyed but a grain mill was twisted up like a pretzel, and a lot of trees were ripped from the ground

IMG_0589.jpegIMG_0590.jpeg
It’s spooky that the EF-1 I mentioned in a previous post was just a couple miles up the road from one family member, the second was just a couple miles from me, and the third just miles away from the rest of my family lol
We are under a flood warning until Sunday but it’s not something we’re really concerned about
 
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