Severe Weather outbreaks

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Video from the Teal 73 mission inside Melissa. Damn son. Look at that stadium formation. This bitch is immaculate



Also, Melissa just beat out Super Typhoon Meranti for the driest eye in a tropical cyclone. Its also below freezing inside the eye, which is also nuts. That is an insane amount of convection. You really should not be seeing Pacific typhoons getting dunked on by a storm in the Caribbean.

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According to this data, Melissa has the dryest eye of any hurricane in any basin on the planet in history.
mindlessobserver said:
Its also below freezing inside the eye, which is also nuts.
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That's not how that information is read. The surface air temperature in the eye has been between 28-34°C today. What you're seeing is not real temperature, but brightness temperature, specifically of the 6.9 micrometer band, which corresponds to mid level (5-10km) water vapor. How brightness temperature, or T(B), is read, is what temperature a perfect black body would need to be to emit that level of IR radiation. This is used as a proxy for dryness. So, the eye of Melissa emits the same amount of IR radiation as a perfect black body at -4.75°C. Basically, the very, very dry air of the stratosphere is subsiding into the eye, making it feel like a bone dry desert. The reason for this is that, physically, the eye has to subduct to counteract the extreme updraft of the eye wall, and the air is being pulled from the stratosphere, which is extremely dry. With virtually zero horizontal air movement, you'd feel like you're standing in an oven in the desert.
 
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I'm listening to a press conference on Agenda Free TV about the hurricane from the Jamaicans and I am once again bewildered by how third world countries function.
One of the reporters just asked the person giving the presentation "how do hurricanes work?" basically. Incredible.
 
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Symbol of the Chud said:
I'm listening to a press conference on Agenda Free TV about the hurricane from the Jamaicans and I am once again bewildered by how third world countries function.
One of the reporters just asked the person giving the presentation "how do hurricanes work?" basically. Incredible.
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There's genuine beef between meteorologists and Jamaicans on Twitter right now because Jamaicans think they're all stupid Americans trying to tell them what they should do when those meteorologists have never been in a hurricane before (even though they have...)

Anyways, the sun is starting to set so Melissa may further intensify, since cloud tops will start cooling further.
 
#FF0000 said:
There's genuine beef between meteorologists and Jamaicans on Twitter right now because Jamaicans think they're all stupid Americans trying to tell them what they should do when those meteorologists have never been in a hurricane before (even though they have...)

Anyways, the sun is starting to set so Melissa may further intensify, since cloud tops will start cooling further.
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Apparently though Jamaica has never taken a Cat 5 before, let alone a Cat 5 head on. This wont be a glancing blow, the eye is going to hit the Island dead center. When they say "these silly Americans have never been in a hurricane", well, neither have the Jamaicans! Not one like this anyhow.
 
mindlessobserver said:
Apparently though Jamaica has never taken a Cat 5 before, let alone a Cat 5 head on. This wont be a glancing blow, the eye is going to hit the Island dead center. When they say "these silly Americans have never been in a hurricane", well, neither have the Jamaicans! Not one like this anyhow.
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The strongest landfalling hurricane in Jamaica was a Category 3.
This is an upper echelon Category 5.
They have no fucking idea what's coming.

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Anyways we broke the record again for the driest eye, at -4.41C!
 
1Tonka_Truck said:
the table gets dryer as it goes down.
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As I said above, it's not water vapor temperature, it's T(B). This is not directly measuring temperature, it is measuring the amount of IR radiation in the 6.9 micrometer band, and is being displayed as the temperature a perfect black body would have to be to emit the same amount of IR radiation.

The reason this is a good metric for dryness is because the measurements are being taken from space. Water absorbs a ton of radiation in this band, so less of it makes it into space, which is where the satellite is. The higher the temperature, the more IR radiation is making it into space, which means less water vapor. The chart is correct.
 
A Cardboard Box said:
As I said above, it's not water vapor temperature, it's T(B). This is not directly measuring temperature, it is measuring the amount of IR radiation in the 6.9 micrometer band, and is being displayed as the temperature a perfect black body would have to be to emit the same amount of IR radiation.
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I somehow missed your post, but sort of figured it out when I saw the graph @#FF0000 posted. I still don't understand how smaller negative number is dryer, unless that's not true and then I think I've got it.
 
Post Reply said:
Harder than Kalya Rekeita at Hedonism II.
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The aftermath of this will be interesting to see. I dont know how robust Jamaicas infrastructure is, but this has the potential to basically bring down the entire countries electrical grid, and paralyze its roadways. More remote areas of could be cut off for months.

Depending on how robust the Jamaican Army and Police are, there is a possibility of Anarchic conditions setting in very quickly as desperate people of African persuasion realize that the police wont be coming and everything not nailed down is essentially free. Then there is the issue of how prepared they are with survival food and water stockpiles.

Good chance that Massive fleet of American warships and Marines in the Carribean that was sent to bully Venezuela may find themselves having to pull Jamaica out of the ocean. Literally.

The aircraft carrier may be necessary. Kingston Airport sits at sea level on a barrier Island nd is probably going to be inundated by the storm surge
 
1Tonka_Truck said:
I still don't understand how smaller negative number is dryer, unless that's not true and then I think I've got it.
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So it's best to understand what's being measured. What is being measured is IR radiation. The higher the temperature, the more IR radiation making it through. Water vapor absorbs and therefore blocks IR radiation from making it to the satellite, making it read a lower temperature. Instead of thinking of it as a literally temperature, think of it as "how much IR radiation is making it to the satellite?" The more IR, the less water vapor, the less water vapor, the drier it is.
mindlessobserver said:
Then there is the issue of how prepared they are with survival food and water stockpiles.
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Stores are virtually empty already. Shelves were totally cleaned off hours ago.
 
The same NOAA plane ("Kermit" - all the NOAA hurricane hunters are named after Muppets) that got yeeted out of Melissa earlier today is about to go back in.
 
Smyrna said:
The same NOAA plane ("Kermit" - all the NOAA hurricane hunters are named after Muppets) that got yeeted out of Melissa earlier today is about to go back in.
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Early evidence from Kermit indicates eye wall replacement cycle while she is stalled out in the ocean. Absolutely worst case scenario depending on how long it takes her to finish it up.

Depending on how this goes she could start to resemble something you see in the open Pacific and not the Caribbean. She's basically stalled out over deep and warm water and is turning fucking slow. Landfall is still 12-18 hours away.
 
#FF0000 said:
There's genuine beef between meteorologists and Jamaicans on Twitter right now because Jamaicans think they're all stupid Americans trying to tell them what they should do when those meteorologists have never been in a hurricane before (even though they have...)

Anyways, the sun is starting to set so Melissa may further intensify, since cloud tops will start cooling further.
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I always like to listen to local radio stations during big storms get an idea whats going on from callers.

The radio stations there are barely talking about it. The latest bulletin I heard basically made it sounds like just a normal storm. They don't even have any special programming going.

Cam feeds a lot of streamers seem to be leaching off.
 
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Jump said:
I always like to listen to local radio stations during big storms get an idea whats going on from callers.

The radio stations there are barely talking about it. The latest bulletin I heard basically made it sounds like just a normal storm. They don't even have any special programming going.

Cam feeds a lot of streamers seem to be leaching off.
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The Nationwide News Network are talking about it right now. Haven't listened very long but it sounds like they think it'll wind down or it'll start curving away from Jamaica. This will all be a big nothingburger or it'll catch them with their pants down and they'll be brutalized. They're already taking a hit in terms of infrastructure but its a poor shithole so this isn't too surprising
 
301's dropsonde data is coming in. Dropsondes one (baseline) and two (eye) have reported.
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Sea level pressure is at 910mb, very slightly higher than earlier today. Expecting more data in 10-20 minutes.

Edit: immediately after I posted we got number 3 data.
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Surface winds are 102kt, this is 32kt slower than the same part of the storm 11 hours ago. This is basically the worst case scenario. Melissa is undergoing an ERC while stalled out.
 
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