Severe Weather outbreaks

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How do those hurricane hunter planes get through the wall safely? There's no chance they are able to fly over it in a turboprop.
 
Jotch said:
How do those hurricane hunter planes get through the wall safely? There's no chance they are able to fly over it in a turboprop.
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There's several factors that allow them to do it. The planes themselves have reinforced fuselages, they fly in a specific pattern, in through the weakest part of the eyewall based on its direction if movement, across the eye, and out through the opposite side, and they fly at the mid level of the storm, generally 8,000-10,000 feet, where there's still a lot of wind but far less vertical turbulence, which is the kind that tears the wings off. Additionally, they have onboard radar to avoid the worst parts of the storm.
 
I am getting the same vibes I got from Helene for this one. She is doing all the correct moves to be the best bitch she can be. Looking at her just sitting south of Jamaica, its like watching a leopard crouched down ready to pounce on its prey. This storm is going into history, there is no getting around it, and I dont think Jamaica is ready for it.


The US Navy should probably start planning for a major humanitarian disaster.
 
mindlessobserver said:
Good chance that Massive fleet of American warships and Marines in the Carribean that was sent to bully Venezuela may find themselves having to pull Jamaica out of the ocean. Literally.
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I hate how cynical I have become that my first thought was "this would be great ammo to throw at the democrats to end the government shutdown" but at least my second thought was "this is a going to become a situation that will legitimately require international aid and it would be easier to find funding to do so if they knock this bullshit off."

It would be legit fucked if they keep the shutdown going and screw black people both at home and abroad. I think they're crazy enough to do it.
 
not william stenchever said:
I hate how cynical I have become that my first thought was "this would be great ammo to throw at the democrats to end the government shutdown" but at least my second thought was "this is a going to become a situation that will legitimately require international aid and it would be easier to find funding to do so if they knock this bullshit off."

It would be legit fucked if they keep the shutdown going and screw black people both at home and abroad. I think they're crazy enough to do it.
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If the worst case scenario does result, the budget is paid for out of the discretionary slush fund that is held for exigent circumstances. And if that is exhausted it would be paid for with IOUs.

There is a sort of serendipity here in that Jamaica is about get fucking rocked but because Trump decided to bully Venezuela there is a massive flotilla nearby complete with two amphibious assault carriers carrying helicopters, supplies and on board water purification, along with a full contingent of Marines.
 
ADT estimate is at 8.4, tied with Patricia for the highest ever estimate.
 
Really the best case scenario at this point is that the eyewall misses Kingston and the lesser populated western half of the island gets fucking leveled. The storm's beginning its northward turn and will be making landfall in about 12-16 hours.

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Just judging from these live cams, it looks like conditions are already deteriorating on the island:

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It'll be interesting to see how long these stay online for. I'm guessing at least some of the live cams in Kingston stay up. The Little London cam is located pretty close to the Western tip of the island, though. It's practically a guarantee that that one's going down once the storm comes inland.

edit: i'm isnt good at grammer
 
CFC-12 said:
Really the best case scenario at this point is that the eyewall misses Kingston and the lesser populated western half of the island gets fucking leveled. The storm's beginning its northward turn and will be making landfall in about 12-16 hours.
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People focus on the wind, but the winds are not the danger here. Its the rainfall. Kingston is going to have 40 inches of rain dropped on the mountain above it. The mud slides are going to be apocalyptic. Combine that with half the island getting buzz sawed and all road connections severed and its going to be a real mess.

Another issue i am noting just glancing at the list of Jamaicas power plants, they are mostly in the western part of the country and are about to get slammed. Never mind Melissa bringing down the distribution network, her track is going to go over the plants themselves. Long term it would be better for Jamaica had the storm tracked over Kingston. The current track will instead cause landslides in Kingston and destroy the countries electrical grid. Not just disrupt it. Destroy it. The Island may require a full reconstruction to restore power, which could take months.
 
There is no fucking way thousands of people won't die from this, I have yet to see anything helping on this storm, and everything is just perfect for the worst possible conditions on top of Jamaica being an island that is very mountainous and has a lot of open quarry mines meaning flood water will stay around for DAYS. I think Jamaica is going to be permanently fucked as a country and people are being optimistic thinking recovery will take months.
 
Is this now the strongest atlantic storm ever? *I looked it up, it's close but not the strongest yet.
 
Matzo Nazi said:
Is this now the strongest atlantic storm ever? *I looked it up, it's close but not the strongest yet.
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I am going to be real pissed when journos get their software update and blame Cheeto Hitler for this catastrophe via "HE EXACERBATED CLIMATE CHANGE REE" while their democrat confederates in the government conspire to prolong the suffering of the Jamaican people from the other end.
 
not william stenchever said:
I am going to be real pissed when journos get their software update and blame Cheeto Hitler for this catastrophe via "HE EXACERBATED CLIMATE CHANGE REE" while their democrat confederates in the government conspire to prolong the suffering of the Jamaican people from the other end.
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Every single politician gets money from the oil companies, one way or another. They're of course going to blame him, but they're all on the take. Even the "green" energy people don't give a shit if we strip mine Jamaica for its aluminum ore, I'm sure the locals there love having all those mining chemicals leaching into the environment.
 
11 PM update from the NHC.

LOCATION...16.6N 78.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...903 MB...26.67 INCHES

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions
are expected to begin Tuesday morning. Within the eyewall, total
structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas
where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area starting Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday with hurricane conditions
also possible on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

Shes getting stronger again. Pray for Jamaica.
 
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Melissa is tied with Patricia on the ADT in terms of CI#, and breaks the scale (max 8.5) for Adj T# and Raw T#.
I have no fucking idea how or why recon is not even finding sub 900 mb pressure.
 
#FF0000 said:
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Melissa is tied with Patricia on the ADT in terms of CI#, and breaks the scale (max 8.5) for Adj T# and Raw T#.
I have no fucking idea how or why recon is not even finding sub 900 mb pressure.
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Lowest I've seen so far from recon was 903, which is what's on NHC right now.

They're going in for another pass through the eyewall as I type this, so we'll see if the next dropsonde corroborates this.

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I'd like to take a moment to acknowledge this image:

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These are street vendor carts that keep popping up in the Kingston West Parade live cam. Their solution was not to bring them home, or put them inside. What they did was wrap some tarps over them and call it good enough. If anything is emblematic of just how woefully unprepared Jamaica is for a storm of this magnitude, it's this.

Forgive my doubleposting, I'm a faggot, etc etc etc. But dropsonde data just came in from the NE eyewall:

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161 knots is 185 miles per hour. Holy fuck. There are no words.
 
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