Maybe it's the pro-Palestine side of me talking but I just feel that it was a massive Israel and more generally speaking, Judaism wank.
Mussolini being more pro-Semitic then he was in OTL? Fine, the Fascist Party didn't really give a shit about God's Chosen™ until Kristallnacht, so I could see that happening.
Mussolini buying Jews who were likely to go along with fascism off Hitler and using them to settle Libya? Also fine, the Nazis would have been very happy to get Jews out the country and I'd assume they'd see it as Mussolini just causing himself problems.
Mussolini allowing Libya to have a Jewish population that came close to the Italian population? Yeah, there's no way an authoritarian nationalist regime that was, in theory, Catholic is going to allow an Italian colony to have a large population of people who weren't Italian or Christian.
Mussolini allowing 800,000 Hungarian Jews into Italy who then proceed to defend Slovenia using their special Jewish magic powers? Also no. Not to mention that the Ustaše, who were on the Axis side and would have cared about what was going on in Slovenia, were very anti-Semitic and I doubt that Pavelic and the NDH would have been fine with 800,000 Jews fighting on their border when they were literally gassing Jews at Jasenovac.
(as an aside, the Ustaše were also not so stupid that they would risk WW3 just so that they could kill Serbs. Yes, they were incredibly vicious bastards to any Serbs that found themselves in ”Greater Croatia”, no, this doesn't mean that they would have invaded Serbia for shits and giggles. They literally had a plan for Serbs that involved converting a third to Catholicism, killing a third and deporting the other third to a Serbian rump state. You can't do that if Serbia doesn't exist.)
Britain establishing a Jewish Army and then Israel when the majority of Zionist organisations were supported by Fascist Italy? No. There is no way Britain would let a Zionist government take power in Mandatory Palestine or hand Palestine over to said Zionists when they've made it very clear that they like Italy, a country most Brits then viewed with distaste.
Israel then being supported by Fascist Italy? Fine - as we've seen, in this timeline Mussolini's happy to support the Jews and the Jews are happy to be protected by somebody for a change. There's absolutely no way this wouldn't lead to a fascist government being created in Israel, because Mussolini is not going to let a liberal democracy be established in an Italian client state when he's spent the last twenty years railing against liberal democracy.
Israel then getting all of both Mandatory Palestine and Transjordan? That definitely seems like a stretch given there were about 1000 Jews in Transjordan in 1948, and Britain had always said that there was no way Transjordan would be included in any future Jewish state. Still, given Israel has a great power on its side and absolutely nobody cares about the Palestinians or Jordanians, I'll excuse it.
Michel Aflaq then taking over in Syria? This actually makes sense because Ba'athism is very much anti-imperialist and given that the Arab world (French Algeria, Italian Libya, Palestine and Transjordan) is being colonised on a greater scale than OTL, I can see Ba'athism being incredibly popular.
Aflaq then making Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Julius Streicher look like people who put those ”coexist” bumper stickers on their cars? No, no, and no. The Ba'ath party was secular and would not have screwed over the Maronites in the way it did (Aflaq was literally a Christian) nor would it have carried out pogroms across the UAR.
Aflaq then forgetting nuclear weapons exist and then deciding to attack a state protected by nukes without having any nukes? No. Ba'athism may well be an Arab knockoff of fascism, but that doesn't make Ba'athists stupid. Likewise, Aflaq wouldn't have bombed random Jewish settlements instead of targeting the IDF with the few chemical weapons he had.
In short, Israel manages to get support from everyone it meets and somehow manages to be a thriving liberal democracy and a fascist client state at the same time, while any Arabs who come into contact with Israel are made mentally retarded and incapable of putting together any form of military strategy by the simple fact that Israel is a Jewish state.
