So what happens now?

[Marvin]

Chris is provoking people out in public. It's just that he's too much of a pussy to do it to their faces. He mutters to himself but they can still hear it. He repeats the same obnoxious thing over and over. I'd almost wonder if Chris didn't realize he's saying this stuff out loud. He's gotten confronted for doing this and immediately pussied out. But it's definitely possible he provokes someone again who doesn't let him back down.

Marvin, would it be immoral to place bets on the chances of Chris getting his ass beat?

Heh, well, either way, I would just say we don't have enough info to say much about those chances. We know that Chris is out there being obnoxious, but not much past that. The morality of it is a moot point, I think.

 

[Kosher Dill]

He's gotten confronted for doing this and immediately pussied out.

What, he didn't slap their face down..... monster card?

 

[Roger Rabbit]

I have often contemplated what will happen in the future for Chris. My thought is that Barb will pass away, and Chris will have to move on with that. He will no longer have anybody to live with, and he will become just as bad as his mother.


We'll have to wait and see though.

 

[DrChristianTroy]

Chris is provoking people out in public. It's just that he's too much of a pussy to do it to their faces. He mutters to himself but they can still hear it. He repeats the same obnoxious thing over and over. I'd almost wonder if Chris didn't realize he's saying this stuff out loud. He's gotten confronted for doing this and immediately pussied out. But it's definitely possible he provokes someone again who doesn't let him back down.

You have no idea how much I want to hear about these incidents.

 

[Marvin]

Chris is provoking people out in public. It's just that he's too much of a pussy to do it to their faces. He mutters to himself but they can still hear it. He repeats the same obnoxious thing over and over. I'd almost wonder if Chris didn't realize he's saying this stuff out loud. He's gotten confronted for doing this and immediately pussied out. But it's definitely possible he provokes someone again who doesn't let him back down.

You have no idea how much I want to hear about these incidents.

viewtopic.php?p=143243#p143243
Well, this pretty much describes a story I was told that happened in the last month or two. I was just a little vague on some of the details. Oh, and Chris was afraid of being approached by the people he was messing with in the parking lot, so he either ran off quickly in whatever vehicle he's using nowadays or he waited for them to leave first. I don't remember which it was.

Really, if this person I know is encountering Chris being obnoxious once in awhile, then I'm pretty sure is being annoying to people pretty regularly. It's a lot more than I thought was happening awhile back. I mean, it's not the type of stuff that'll get him banned from anywhere, but he'll definitely endure risks of getting his ass kicked. Almost happened with my friend.

 

[DrChristianTroy]

Chris is provoking people out in public. It's just that he's too much of a pussy to do it to their faces. He mutters to himself but they can still hear it. He repeats the same obnoxious thing over and over. I'd almost wonder if Chris didn't realize he's saying this stuff out loud. He's gotten confronted for doing this and immediately pussied out. But it's definitely possible he provokes someone again who doesn't let him back down.

You have no idea how much I want to hear about these incidents.

http://cwckiforums.com/viewtopic.php?p=143243#p143243
Well, this pretty much describes a story I was told that happened in the last month or two. I was just a little vague on some of the details. Oh, and Chris was afraid of being approached by the people he was messing with in the parking lot, so he either ran off quickly in whatever vehicle he's using nowadays or he waited for them to leave first. I don't remember which it was.

Really, if this person I know is encountering Chris being obnoxious once in awhile, then I'm pretty sure is being annoying to people pretty regularly. It's a lot more than I thought was happening awhile back. I mean, it's not the type of stuff that'll get him banned from anywhere, but he'll definitely endure risks of getting his ass kicked. Almost happened with my friend.

Fuck this sounds glorious. From him immediately pussing out to him waddling to his car. The mental image I have is amazing.

All because someone said McDonald's sucks to their friend.

 

[Marvin]

You have no idea how much I want to hear about these incidents.

viewtopic.php?p=143243#p143243
Well, this pretty much describes a story I was told that happened in the last month or two. I was just a little vague on some of the details. Oh, and Chris was afraid of being approached by the people he was messing with in the parking lot, so he either ran off quickly in whatever vehicle he's using nowadays or he waited for them to leave first. I don't remember which it was.

Really, if this person I know is encountering Chris being obnoxious once in awhile, then I'm pretty sure is being annoying to people pretty regularly. It's a lot more than I thought was happening awhile back. I mean, it's not the type of stuff that'll get him banned from anywhere, but he'll definitely endure risks of getting his ass kicked. Almost happened with my friend.

Fuck this sounds glorious. From him immediately pussing out to him waddling to his car. The mental image I have is amazing.

All because someone said McDonald's sucks to their friend.

Oh yeah. Hell, they didn't even say mcdonalds sucks. They were just complaining about their order getting fucked up, which is entirely reasonable. But no, you're never allowed to criticize mcdonalds. Unless you're Chris.

 

[GFYS]

Him just wearing the headband or pigtails could get his bell rung, around the wrong type of crowd. There are bad people out there that wouldn't hesitate to knock Chris out for the seemingly inconsequential passive-aggressive muttering shit he does.

What if the Walmart Loss Prevention lady had a co-worker/friend that was a hothead? Lots of gung-ho TapouT COD Team Deagle warriors get jobs as store security, and fantasize about going ninja on someones ass. Chris could have been choked out and arrested for the nasty screaming tantrum he threw. What if Smoking Lady had a meathead boyfriend? What if Megan dates some angry skinhead, who finds those emails? Okay, I'm reaching a little... But all kinds of stupid shit surrounds Chris like flies to .

I can see Chris getting smacked or arrested, even if he genuinely didn't do something wrong. He's creepy, and that makes people uneasy. An honest misunderstanding can escalate to something serious, when you add in a socially-retarded egotistical manbaby who starts reaching into his clothes to grab a camera while he runs away. Someone could mistakenly think the stupid iDea Book in his clothes could be something he stole, the cops could show up, and he could be tackled and/or arrested simply for waddling away from a police officer.

tl;dr I still agree that it's not very likely to happen, but I think it's a bit more likely than the consensus.

 

[Horde Prime]

Hey, uh, a little off-topic, but that Return of Kings site is a joke, right?

I'd assume it was, but people like Chris have awakened me to the level of doucheness that humans can achieve.

I wish it was.

It's real. Very very real. On reddit, there's even a whole subreddit FILLED with douchebags like them called "The Red Pill." They started out as being about self-improvement for men, then devolved into misogynistic assholes.

Bah.... The real problem is all these dad gum condensating bitches in the world.

 

[Blue Max]

There's another possibility: 14 Branchland could be repossessed. Not from Chris's credit card debt, but Barb is probably in substantial debt herself.

This is a good possibility to consider, and frankly I'd want to split the ideas we've generated here, so I'll update that at the bottom of the thread.

Repossessing 14 Branchland screws Barb over real good, and I'm fully confident that they'll do it over Barb's dead body. To be frank, if Barb were delinquent on her payments today, she could potentially draw out the process many months simply by trying to negotiate over payments--and would any appraisal actually claim that 14 Branchland hasn't lost major value?

There are several was this could go down, but it won't happen quickly and it won't happen without the Banktrolls becoming public enemy #1. Also, Barb could BK to add additional time. Once Barb is gone, the game is likely up for Chris quickly, but I'd suspect the damage would be utter lack of control first, financial collapse second.

You may be correct, but I disagree. She's had medical issues for years, her diet's as bad as Chris's, she used to be obese, and she drank heavily during most of her adult life. Given her advanced age, her health could decline very quickly. She could live another decade, or she could die tomorrow. Frankly, I don't see her living much more than another 2 to 3 years at best.

People have talked about Barb dying imminently for the last three years, I think that alone deserves some consideration--she's pretty solidly defied a loud chorus of predictions, and I think her health has been underestimated.

Her health could decline very quickly, but Barb isn't going to die of an accident, of misadventure or other means of great exertion. She has access to emergency care if needed, and while she's made a lot of bad choices in terms of health, I question the collective wisdom that she's going to die within the next two years (More confident on five years on that one).

I am closer to agreement with you on this, although given that maintenance on the house has been non-existent for years, the possibility of a burst pipe or roof damage is substantial in the near future.

I would actually claim that 14 Branchland may well have less use of its plumbing than the average house, although that probably doesn't count for a lot. All it takes to burst a pipe is to leave the water entirely stoppered below freezing. But Chris and Barb must know better than that, as it's not already happened.

I'm narrowing the prediction to two years (the same as your ideas) and I still think that even with consideration of the plumbing, a true disaster is unlikely. The Hoard does mean that a leak or a broken pipe may well turn into a terrible disaster with considerable speed--but some credit needs to be given to the pipe installers to start with. Copper Pipes are warrantied for 50! Years--which means they almost certainly outlive Chris. A cursory check online suggests that even plastic pipes should last something like 20 years--the people who built the house were not Lolkine idiots, irregardless of the current occupants.

I concur. Something like this could happen any day. Chris is predictably unpredictable. There could be a wide range of consequences, minor to major, varying upon the exact circumstances.

Well said. I'll post my odds at the bottom.

I see this as a less likely scenario, but still possible. If he pisses the wrong person off, he might try to run away, but they could easily catch him and beat his ass. Might actually teach him a lesson, and he certainly has the karma coming his way.

Chris is a bit of a Karma Houdini and I suspect there's something to the idea that "men don't beat the hell out of clearly mentally ill manchildren". Even if Chris deserves it, even if Chris thinks to try it, the guy who would Kick the Autistic is going to look like the responsible party--and this means that you or I would never do it, as the consequences would be severe. But Chris doesn't want to get his ass kicked and, indeed, can barely seem to function socially.

I do believe that Chris's lifestyle is going to start having substantial effects on his physical health in the near future, if it hasn't already. However, as far as him actually dying? You underestimate the resilience of human beings. Some people do everything wrong and still live into their 80's. I don't see Chris dying until he at least reaches his mid to late 40's, which is over a decade away. However, heart attacks among people his age are not unknown, and if his genetic predisposition for physical health is as bad as for his mental health, then he could actually be placing his life at risk in the near term with his extremely poor lifestyle choices.

I think I might have presented a somewhat pointed image of "medical emergency".
I don't think Chris is likely to die imminently.
I do think Chris is past the point of being Ironman, physically, and that a real health scare (not death) is quite possible. Chris' diet may well be worse than Homer Simpson, and his lifestyle is, well, Lolkine.

What are the odds that Chris develops Type 2 Diabetes? Or that he has heart trouble related to sky-high Cholesterol? I think these sorts of things are actually fairly plausible. Chris won't die, but the limits of his own mortality appear. In short, Chris goes from blissful ignorance to having a health issue that requires vigilance or attention.

I'll split up these ideas and throw them in the percentages below.

Barb Dies: 75%
Chris goes to Jail: 50%
Branchland Court damage/repossession: 40%
Chris getting his ass kicked: 15%
Chris dying: 5-10%
But there is an overwhelming probability (95%+) that at least one of these events WILL happen, and when it does, it's going to set in motion a chain of events that will change Chris's life irreversibly.

Tightening up to two years, as opposed to five...

Chris goes to Jail 50%
Chris has Medical Problem 50%
Barb Dies 15%
14 Branchland Damaged 10%
Chris gets his ass Kicked 5%
Chris Dies [3%]
14 Branchland Repo'd 0.5%

I don't think the events above are unrelated, so I'll offer one more prediction.
One of the Above happens within two years [80%]
Two or More happens within two years [10%]
Chris gets another two years to vent on Facebook [10%]

I agree with your analysis also: Things don't look good for Chris.

 

[Horde Prime]

A doctor once told me mean people seem to live the longest. Buckle up guys, Barb may have a good decade and a half left.

 

[timtommy]

I tend to come up on the side of those saying that Chris won't get his ass kicked. As a typical jerk male, I have seen several situations where violence has happened. There are two things which are almost always necessary for a real fight to happen.

1. Both parties are involved in the escalation. One person says or does something obnoxious or stupid, another person gets blangry, first person gets indignant, second person gets blangrier, first person starts to get blangry, second person gives a shove, first person gives a shove back, second person throws a punch, fight starts.

This is unlikely to proceed past the first couple steps first. You can say Chris is a pussy if you want to be negative or non-confrontational if you want to be positive. He would probably not continue the escalation too far, particularly if violence was in the immediate offing.

2. Fights tend to involve alcohol.

In order to be involved in a fight, Chris would probably have to be out late at night in a social environment where alcohol is being consumed. Chris seems to be in these situations far less than most people.

Fights happen. People get their ass kicked. I have seen it several times involving friends and many times involving strangers. But I have never seen a fight break out between two sober people, and I have never seen a fight where both sides weren't being assholes for quite a while before things got serious. Honestly, I think Chris is safe.

In terms of the other theories:
I don't think Chris is that likely to go to prison. He is fairly non-violent, isn't around drugs, and has mental health issues.
Is it possible he will have some sort of run in with the law? Very possible. But I think he should be able to Smeagol his way out of serious prison time. The crimes he is likely to commit are fairly minor, and can probably be attributed by a court to his lack of understanding of social norms and cues. He will most likely be assigned counseling. In Virginia, could he be sent by a court to an institution or a group home? If so, this would seem like a likely and positive outcome.

Medical problem: A serious one is unlikely. I know we like to say Chris is horribly unhealthy, but he is not old, a non-smoker and light drinker. He is overweight, but not morbidly obese. His lifestyle/body type is the sort of thing you worry about from someone in their 50's, not their early 30's.

Barb's health: She is an old woman. But it seems like her health problems are not on the verge of life threatening. Anything can happen, but I think another 5-10 years are not unlikely.

A house situation: This is the one theory that I think is more likely than some do. It is in shitty condition and doesn't receive maintenance. But major collapses are rare. I think the most likely scenario is that something minor but not ignorable, like an electrical or plumbing problem, happens. They have to hire someone in. The person is concerned about the condition of the house, or finds mold or bugs, and the house ends up being condemned.

But overall, I don't see anything spectacular happening for a while. 2-3 years of moping and pokeymans gets a 75% likelihood score from me.

 

[Marvin]

I tend to come up on the side of those saying that Chris won't get his ass kicked. As a typical jerk male, I have seen several situations where violence has happened. There are two things which are almost always necessary for a real fight to happen.

1. Both parties are involved in the escalation. One person says or does something obnoxious or stupid, another person gets blangry, first person gets indignant, second person gets blangrier, first person starts to get blangry, second person gives a shove, first person gives a shove back, second person throws a punch, fight starts.

This is unlikely to proceed past the first couple steps first. You can say Chris is a pussy if you want to be negative or non-confrontational if you want to be positive. He would probably not continue the escalation too far, particularly if violence was in the immediate offing.

Well the only reason I brought up the fights as a potential was that my friend almost hit Chris. It's probably less a fight than merely a single punch, but still, it'd be Chris getting punched for being his typical, obnoxious self.

2. Fights tend to involve alcohol.

In order to be involved in a fight, Chris would probably have to be out late at night in a social environment where alcohol is being consumed. Chris seems to be in these situations far less than most people.

Fights happen. People get their ass kicked. I have seen it several times involving friends and many times involving strangers. But I have never seen a fight break out between two sober people, and I have never seen a fight where both sides weren't being assholes for quite a while before things got serious. Honestly, I think Chris is safe.

In terms of the other theories:
I don't think Chris is that likely to go to prison. He is fairly non-violent, isn't around drugs, and has mental health issues.
Is it possible he will have some sort of run in with the law? Very possible. But I think he should be able to Smeagol his way out of serious prison time. The crimes he is likely to commit are fairly minor, and can probably be attributed by a court to his lack of understanding of social norms and cues. He will most likely be assigned counseling. In Virginia, could he be sent by a court to an institution or a group home? If so, this would seem like a likely and positive outcome.

Medical problem: A serious one is unlikely. I know we like to say Chris is horribly unhealthy, but he is not old, a non-smoker and light drinker. He is overweight, but not morbidly obese. His lifestyle/body type is the sort of thing you worry about from someone in their 50's, not their early 30's.

Barb's health: She is an old woman. But it seems like her health problems are not on the verge of life threatening. Anything can happen, but I think another 5-10 years are not unlikely.

A house situation: This is the one theory that I think is more likely than some do. It is in shitty condition and doesn't receive maintenance. But major collapses are rare. I think the most likely scenario is that something minor but not ignorable, like an electrical or plumbing problem, happens. They have to hire someone in. The person is concerned about the condition of the house, or finds mold or bugs, and the house ends up being condemned.

But overall, I don't see anything spectacular happening for a while. 2-3 years of moping and pokeymans gets a 75% likelihood score from me.

Well again, it woudn't be that much of a fight, so much as Chris getting smacked and failing to ever confirm it. Which would be the case with Chris.

 

[CWCissey]

Well the only reason I brought up the fights as a potential was that my friend almost hit Chris. It's probably less a fight than merely a single punch, but still, it'd be Chris getting punched for being his typical, obnoxious self.

Spill spill!

Well again, it woudn't be that much of a fight, so much as Chris getting smacked and failing to ever confirm it. Which would be the case with Chris.

Lucky we have you Marvin.

 

[Hyperion]

Someone suggested earlier that you sweep a leg and then put your katana to his throat. I just want everyone to know that swords are very dangerous and to not sweep any legs or put any swords to a throat without the permission of your parents.

 

[Some JERK]

I tend to come up on the side of those saying that Chris won't get his ass kicked. As a typical jerk male, I have seen several situations where violence has happened. There are two things which are almost always necessary for a real fight to happen.

1. Both parties are involved in the escalation. One person says or does something obnoxious or stupid, another person gets blangry, first person gets indignant, second person gets blangrier, first person starts to get blangry, second person gives a shove, first person gives a shove back, second person throws a punch, fight starts.

This is unlikely to proceed past the first couple steps first. You can say Chris is a pussy if you want to be negative or non-confrontational if you want to be positive. He would probably not continue the escalation too far, particularly if violence was in the immediate offing.

2. Fights tend to involve alcohol.

In order to be involved in a fight, Chris would probably have to be out late at night in a social environment where alcohol is being consumed. Chris seems to be in these situations far less than most people.

Fights happen. People get their ass kicked. I have seen it several times involving friends and many times involving strangers. But I have never seen a fight break out between two sober people, and I have never seen a fight where both sides weren't being assholes for quite a while before things got serious. Honestly, I think Chris is safe.

That's how fights go down in some crowds, but there's far less chest thumping or escalation required in fights involving people who are actually violent. (rather than just people who use violence as a means to prove something, or as the last resort when backed into a corner.) Typically fights involving these types of people go something like this:

1.) one person says or does something stupid
2.) ...and gets punched in the fucking mouth.
3.) repeatedly

No, these types of people are not super-common, but they exist and if you were to ask an LEO in either Charlottesville or Ruckersville about it, they would tell you that both places absolutely have them, and that it's probably not the best idea to act like a shitty, flippant asshole to complete strangers.

 

[Coldgrip]

I tend to come up on the side of those saying that Chris won't get his ass kicked. As a typical jerk male, I have seen several situations where violence has happened. There are two things which are almost always necessary for a real fight to happen.

1. Both parties are involved in the escalation. One person says or does something obnoxious or stupid, another person gets blangry, first person gets indignant, second person gets blangrier, first person starts to get blangry, second person gives a shove, first person gives a shove back, second person throws a punch, fight starts.

This is unlikely to proceed past the first couple steps first. You can say Chris is a pussy if you want to be negative or non-confrontational if you want to be positive. He would probably not continue the escalation too far, particularly if violence was in the immediate offing.

2. Fights tend to involve alcohol.

In order to be involved in a fight, Chris would probably have to be out late at night in a social environment where alcohol is being consumed. Chris seems to be in these situations far less than most people.

Fights happen. People get their ass kicked. I have seen it several times involving friends and many times involving strangers. But I have never seen a fight break out between two sober people, and I have never seen a fight where both sides weren't being assholes for quite a while before things got serious. Honestly, I think Chris is safe.

That's how fights go down in some crowds, but there's far less chest thumping or escalation required in fights involving people who are actually violent. (rather than just people who use violence as a means to prove something, or as the last resort when backed into a corner.) Typically fights involving these types of people go something like this:

1.) one person says or does something stupid
2.) ...and gets punched in the fucking mouth.
3.) repeatedly

No, these types of people are not super-common, but they exist and if you were to ask an LEO in either Charlottesville or Ruckersville about it, they would tell you that both places absolutely have them, and that it's probably not the best idea to act like a shitty, flippant asshole to complete strangers.

This and what Marvin said.

Chris isn't going to get into a fight so much as he's going to piss off the wrong person by acting like Chris and wind up getting a fist to the jaw. Either from a violent asshole, a very over-protective parent or some wannabe macho prick in Tapout shirt.

Blue Max mentioned that Chris is a karma houdini, but I'd say that applies only to him being able to squirm out of legal matters due to his bawtism card. Him mouthing off to people and not winding up decked has been due to luck, not his speshul snoflake syndrome card. And yes, while I agree completely that whoever does the deed will very likely wind up charged with assault because it's illegal, the're people out there that couldn't give less of a shit about what the law says or the consequences of their actions.

I apologize if this any of this sounds or sounded a-loggy, but if Chris keeps being a mouthy punk to people, then him getting punched is just a matter of time.

 

[Some JERK]

Chris isn't going to get into a fight so much as he's going to piss off the wrong person by acting like Chris and wind up getting a fist to the jaw. Either from a violent asshole, a very over-protective parent or some wannabe macho prick in Tapout shirt.

While it's not a lock, I think that the odds are a lot higher than some people think they are. If Marvins source is accurate, then Chris is being very very stupid with certain behaviors. There are certainly people who will hear you say something shitty once, then twice, then make up their minds that if you say it one more time, you are going to swallow some teeth. All without saying a single word of warning to you.

 

[Hyperion]

All it would take was Chris muttering something around the town's resident angry drunk and its on like donkey kong. Given the Southern propensity for constant intake of moonshine I'm guessing half the town are the resident angry drunks.

 

[garbageraider]

This is a good possibility to consider, and frankly I'd want to split the ideas we've generated here, so I'll update that at the bottom of the thread.

Repossessing 14 Branchland screws Barb over real good, and I'm fully confident that they'll do it over Barb's dead body. To be frank, if Barb were delinquent on her payments today, she could potentially draw out the process many months simply by trying to negotiate over payments--and would any appraisal actually claim that 14 Branchland hasn't lost major value?

There are several was this could go down, but it won't happen quickly and it won't happen without the Banktrolls becoming public enemy #1. Also, Barb could BK to add additional time. Once Barb is gone, the game is likely up for Chris quickly, but I'd suspect the damage would be utter lack of control first, financial collapse second.

You have a good point in that repossession is usually a very long and drawn out process. However, there's a factor that hasn't been considered yet: What if there have been hidden financial troubles going on already that we don't know about? Bob's been dead for over two years now, and Chris' recent attempted porn sale is a potential indicator of their financial health. They may have less time left than we think.

People have talked about Barb dying imminently for the last three years, I think that alone deserves some consideration--she's pretty solidly defied a loud chorus of predictions, and I think her health has been underestimated.

Her health could decline very quickly, but Barb isn't going to die of an accident, of misadventure or other means of great exertion. She has access to emergency care if needed, and while she's made a lot of bad choices in terms of health, I question the collective wisdom that she's going to die within the next two years (More confident on five years on that one).

Perhaps I am underestimating Barb's constitution. Maybe she will live for years to come. But on the other hand, just because people have been talking about her imminent death for the past three years doesn't mean that it won't happen. What it comes down to is that we just don't know when Barb will die, and that's the biggest wild-card in Chris' life right now.

I would actually claim that 14 Branchland may well have less use of its plumbing than the average house, although that probably doesn't count for a lot. All it takes to burst a pipe is to leave the water entirely stoppered below freezing. But Chris and Barb must know better than that, as it's not already happened.

I'm narrowing the prediction to two years (the same as your ideas) and I still think that even with consideration of the plumbing, a true disaster is unlikely. The Hoard does mean that a leak or a broken pipe may well turn into a terrible disaster with considerable speed--but some credit needs to be given to the pipe installers to start with. Copper Pipes are warrantied for 50! Years--which means they almost certainly outlive Chris. A cursory check online suggests that even plastic pipes should last something like 20 years--the people who built the house were not Lolkine idiots, irregardless of the current occupants.

There's a number of things that could go wrong with the house, but I think you're correct in assessing that 14 Branchland will probably not experiance any serious maintenence issues in the near future. There is still that slim possibility, however, and if any damage/issue isn't immediately fixed, it could have compounding effects on the structural integrity of the residence.

Well said. I'll post my odds at the bottom.

One factor I forgot to mention: You're correct in saying that Chris isn't likely to commit the types of crimes that precipitate long prison sentences. However, he has committed a felony before, and even misdemeanors such as trespassing and theft can carry maximum jail terms of up to six months in some American jurisdictions. Also, after any offense he commits now, he and barb may not be able to afford a lawyer (Rob Bell) (yes, they paid for his services) like they did after the events of 28 OCT 11. Also, if Chris is in court for a minor crime such as trespass or theft, what would happen if Chris had an outburst and told the judge to "go FUCK yourself, you dirty scheming JEW judge YOU!"?. Chris could easily get an additional charge of contempt of court, and the judge could "throw the book at him". Chris is a master of making the worst of any already bad situation. Just look at his behavior during his last court appearance:
http://www.sonichu.com/cwcki/This_is_how_the_Trial_went
P.S. Also, if Chris is incarcerated for more than 30 consecutive days, he'll lose his tugboat. That's another major factor to consider.

Chris is a bit of a Karma Houdini and I suspect there's something to the idea that "men don't beat the hell out of clearly mentally ill manchildren". Even if Chris deserves it, even if Chris thinks to try it, the guy who would Kick the Autistic is going to look like the responsible party--and this means that you or I would never do it, as the consequences would be severe. But Chris doesn't want to get his ass kicked and, indeed, can barely seem to function socially.

I agree with you in that Chris wouldn't probably be confrontational or outright pick a fight. And most decent people wouldn't beat up an autistic manchild. However, criminals could see Chris as an easy target, albeit one with little of value, but that doesn't prevent some people from being robbed anyway. Simply put, Chris could be victim to a violent crime, even though I don't think there's much of a criminal element in Ruckersville, VA, it's still possible.

I think I might have presented a somewhat pointed image of "medical emergency".
I don't think Chris is likely to die imminently.
I do think Chris is past the point of being Ironman, physically, and that a real health scare (not death) is quite possible. Chris' diet may well be worse than Homer Simpson, and his lifestyle is, well, Lolkine.

What are the odds that Chris develops Type 2 Diabetes? Or that he has heart trouble related to sky-high Cholesterol? I think these sorts of things are actually fairly plausible. Chris won't die, but the limits of his own mortality appear. In short, Chris goes from blissful ignorance to having a health issue that requires vigilance or attention.

I agree with you on this. Chris could, in fact, probably will have a serious medical condition arise in the next two years. And in his current, (and worsening) situation, he's ill-equipped to deal with such a medical issue.

Tightening up to two years, as opposed to five...

Chris goes to Jail 50%
Chris has Medical Problem 50%
Barb Dies 15%
14 Branchland Damaged 10%
Chris gets his ass Kicked 5%
Chris Dies [3%]
14 Branchland Repo'd 0.5%

I don't think the events above are unrelated, so I'll offer one more prediction.
One of the Above happens within two years [80%]
Two or More happens within two years [10%]
Chris gets another two years to vent on Facebook [10%]

I agree with your analysis also: Things don't look good for Chris.

What it comes down to is that there is much more in Chris' life that can suddenly go wrong than can suddenly go right. Overall, I still think you're being too optimistic, but I updated my estimates after considering your points.
My updated take of the chances of something happening over the next 2 years:
Chris develops a serious medical problem: 65%
Barb Dies: 55%
Chris goes to Jail: 45%
Branchland Court repossession: 20%
Branchland Court damage: 15%
Chris getting his ass kicked: 15%
Chris dies: 5%