I honestly think it's too late for that and civil war will be an inevitability across Europe.
I think it's more probable with countries like France, Germany, Italy, Romania, etcetera — countries whose electoral systems are a post-WW2 product.
Despite their people's long histories, the actual apparatus of their states and how they function are relatively new and are built with the intention of preventing extremists coming to power, right? So they have built-in mechanisms (Germany's coalitions and constitution, France's multi-round voting and party alliances) that are meant to give
time to release the pressure on the mounting radicalism in their people before things get too bad; however, they're just outright ignoring the purpose of that feature and are carrying on with the radicalising status quo that gradually sends more and more people into the extremist corner until they're facing down an indomitable majority with their populations.
In comparison we're saved by having an antiquated, bizarre system that gives you what you get — there's no arbitrary coalition mandates, post-election redundancies or open alliances with the intention of undermining other parties. FPTP fucks over any non-established party (like UKIP) but if the people
really want a new party in power, it's not that big an obstacle to overcome.
With Germany is they're forcing their country into a position where instead of having authority divvied out amongst multiple parties, they're forcing their country into a situation where the AFD will end up having an absolute majority and the mandate to do anything it desires. So instead of doing the bare minimum - stemming immigration, deporting illegals, etcetera - they pushed ahead with the status quo (centre-right coalition with centre-left; arresting people who speak overly critical of politicians or insult their appearances; doing absolutely nothing to address immigration or crime spikes with said immigrants) that'll just result in the AFD's assured rise.
Compared to the UK, where Reform's polling and local election results caused some rhetoric shift in other parties, the German parties doing
nothing to even pay lip service to the AFD in spite of their support and instead resorting to doubling down, trying to get them banned still and going ahead with full speed on unpopular politics is absolutely insane. Most of Germany is right-leaning considering the CDU came first and they second, yet their obsession is still to placate and pay lip service to the left-wing. And in France, the centrists and leftists co-ordinated specifically to prevent Le Pen's party from coming in first place in their elections by pulling candidates from certain areas to stop the vote being split. And in Romania, the supreme court just decided the last election was nullified for reasons. The UK does not have anything like that in place, the closest being the monarch, who'd rather keep their position secure by not rocking the boat too much.
The rising anti-immigrant rhetoric and hardening hearts of the right-wing is the result of neoliberals refusing to address concerns before they ever really became a problem, something compounded especially by the fact these concerns were mostly held by the working class and lower-middle class who represent the majority of the country's population instead of abiding by the naïve perspectives of university students and the ultimately selfish concerns of large corporations I.E. "Environment and social justice!" + "Labour overheads and competition undercutting us!"
I would also posit that it's better rhetoric and right-wing ideologies grow harsher and harder now before they get in and simmer down because if someone soft got into right now, you'd only really see things delayed rather than actually be stopped; you'd likely see a repeat of Italy's Meloni dropping immigration down to 100k a year from 300k but then about facing to guarantee 300k arriving in the next 3 years on top of pre-existing numbers. The only way to stop civil war and unrest as a result of growing immigration is by not allowing
any in and reducing the numbers already here
substantially, to have positive knock-on effects for the rest of the population
. Countries will have to start putting their own people, countries, and even businesses first if they want to seriously douse any chance of a civil war, but that risk isn't something that even enters the minds of the people in charge.
I will see civil war as inevitable in someplace like Germany if they once again keep the AFD out of power via coalition, thus bringing about conditions that force half of the population who feel ideologically neglected under the umbrella of a single party that continue to get neglected and ostracised, forcing them to act.
